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-   -   Now this has to be scary.....not always (http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/showthread.php3?t=82510)

lunar 02.12.2008 09:17

Overseas markets

-> Posted by safehaven @ 0:18 am on December 2, 2008
I find it a little odd that lately gold has not risen in the overseas markets. If this were truly a global battle for gold, why would we not see gold rise in the overseas markets?

Is there a possibility of an arrangement between central banks including those of oil rich nations?


safehaven @ 0:18 am - oh I don’t know…

-> Posted by cannuckgold @ 0:27 am on December 2, 2008
could it be this?

goldman sucks gold trading on the tocom ---> .....Considering that the Goldman Sachs LV on TOCOM of their gold position has
almost never been in a net profit it would appear that their motivations have not
been related to making a profit! Their operation has been run as a loss but in a
controlled manner. We know that keeping a lid on the gold price has been the
key to making big profits in the currency, stock and bond markets, which is
probably why the $100 million loss on TOCOM gold has been allowed.

We are at a critical juncture. Is GS going to be forced to cover their short position
or will they attempt to a dangerous gamble and try to bring down the gold price?
Or will the market escape from the chains of the gold Cartel suppression as it did
for a short while last May? Considering that the ECB dumped 57 tons of gold on
the market last month, only to see the gold price continue to rise must have the
Cartel sweating. It is no wonder that they want to get their hands on IMF gold.

From my proprietary analysis work all the key commodities of gold, silver, oil and
copper are synchronously at BUY points and the dollar has broken key support.
The Cartel has now an Achilles Heel and the bulls have the high ground.

Adrian Douglas
info@marketforceanalysis.com
April 22, 2007


....da stinkt's :mad



lunar 02.12.2008 10:52

02 December 2008

Worst Fifteen Dow Days in Percentage Decline








Posted by Jesse at 1:46 AM :verbeug

lunar 02.12.2008 11:05

Mon 1 Dec 2008

Shocked, Shocked I Say

Posted by Jason under fail , subprime
[3] Comments
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Are you sitting down? You should be sitting down. This is stunning and unexpected news. Apparently, pressure from banks caused the Bush administration to ease up on regulating certain types of mortgages.
Bowing to aggressive lobbying — along with assurances from banks that the troubled mortgages were OK — regulators delayed action for nearly one year. By the time new rules were released late in 2006, the toughest of the proposed provisions were gone and the meltdown was under way.

I know! Apparently, sometimes, Republicans side with businesses. Next you’ll be telling me Democrats are in the pocket of labor unions. But wait, there is more fail:
“These mortgages have been considered more safe and sound for portfolio lenders than many fixed rate mortgages,” David Schneider, home loan president of Washington Mutual, told federal regulators in early 2006. Two years later, WaMu became the largest bank failure in U.S. history.

And more:
“An open market will mean that different institutions will develop different methodologies for achieving this goal,” Joseph Polizzotto, counsel to now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers, told U.S. regulators in a March 2006.

Remember Countrywide?
Countrywide Financial Corp., at the time the nation’s largest mortgage lender, agreed. The proposal “appears excessive and will inhibit future innovation in the marketplace,” said Mary Jane Seebach, managing director of public affairs.

So yes, here we have proof once and for all that the market will regulate itself, and the nation and its economy will benefit as a result of lessened government intervention. Also, lobbyists are soulless reptiles who will destroy us all. I hereby designate December 27th as National Kick A Lobbyist Day.



...es gäbe noch so manchen zum kicken :o

lunar 02.12.2008 13:03

Bankdirektor bereicherte sich schamlos

Von Andreas Flütsch. Aktualisiert um 06:31 Uhr


Ernst Imfeld habe aus Geldgier und Geltungssucht bei der Bank Leumi 100 Millionen Franken veruntreut. Dafür soll der Ex-Direktor 8 Jahre hinter Gitter.....

.....Für sich habe Imfeld, so das Gericht, 2,2 Millionen Franken abgezweigt. Er habe aus Geldgier und Geltungssucht gehandelt. Ausgerechnet ein Bankdirektor habe sich schamlos aus den Geldern der Kunden bedient und sich auf deren Kosten ein luxuriöses Leben mit Bentley und Ferrari geleistet. Sein Verhalten zeige bedenkliche Charakterzüge. Eine menschenverachtende Gesinnung habe er gezeigt, als er eine trauernde Witwe um 5 Millionen Franken hintergangen habe......:bad

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtsch.../story/12077421

....noch etliche Wallstreeter könnten ihm Gesellschaft leisten :o

lunar 02.12.2008 13:16

Wayne County Foreclosures Nov2008 :(



lunar 02.12.2008 13:30

Bailout Monitor Sees Lack of a Coherent Plan


Jodi Hilton for The New York Times
Elizabeth Warren, head of the oversight panel, promised a report by Dec. 10.

By DIANA B. HENRIQUES
Published: December 1, 2008
The head of a new Congressional panel set up to monitor the gigantic federal bailout says the government still does not seem to have a coherent strategy for easing the financial crisis, despite the billions it has already spent in that effort.

Andrew Councill for The New York Times
Senator Judd Gregg, Republican of New Hampshire, quit the TARP oversight panel.

Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the oversight panel, said in an interview Monday that the government instead seemed to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.

“You can’t just say, ‘Credit isn’t moving through the system,’ ” she said in her first public comments since being named to the panel. “You have to ask why.”

If the answer is that banks do not have money to lend, it would make sense to push capital into their hands, as the Treasury has been doing over the last two months, she continued. But if the answer is that their potential borrowers are getting less creditworthy with each passing day, “pouring money into banks isn’t going to fix that problem,” she said.

The new panel has held only a few briefings with Treasury officials so far, and Ms. Warren acknowledged that she and the other panel members were still in the early stages of their research......

.....Created with the law’s passage on Oct. 3, it existed only in theory until Nov. 14, when its first three members were appointed by the Democratic leadership in Congress.....:rolleyes (...obwohl Herr Paulson damals versicherte, die Welt gehe unter ohne Bailout :mad)

full story: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/02/business/02tarp.html

..bis jetzt also nur Leerlauf :rolleyes:confused:mad

lunar 02.12.2008 13:38

:kotzBush: `I'm sorry' economic crisis is occurring http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28000264/


...hoffentlich auch sorry für die vielen Toten und sonstigen Opfer die Herr Bush auf dem Gewissen hat :gomad diese Leuten machen es sich wirklich zu einfach :gomad :dumm

lunar 02.12.2008 13:43

Airline industry prospects bleaker now than after 9/11, says analyst

By Hilary Johnson
December 1, 2008 3:44 PM ET

The airline industry is facing an even more bleak future than it did after the events of 9/11, according to research firm Friedman Billings Ramsey.

“We see no positive catalysts on the horizon,” Scott Valentin, a banking and specialty finance analyst at the firm, wrote in a note....

full story: http://www.financialweek.com/apps/p...1/REG/812019967

....vielleicht sollte man mal die Drahtziehern dieses FinanzDesasters belangen :o

lunar 02.12.2008 13:54

Tuesday, December 2, 2008


Big layoffs at WaMu; will Bank of America follow suit?
...darum das viele Geld für die Banken :rolleyes:confused:mad


Goldman to report first loss ever: report
.....troz des engmaschigen Netzes der vielseitigen Beziehungen :rolleyes :kopf


U.S. regulatory system ‘not up to the job,’ says Paulson
By Neil Roland

...ist wohl eher Herr Paulson welcher not up to the job ist :mad

lunar 02.12.2008 14:34

Mon 1 Dec 2008

CNBC Tries To Stay Relevant

Posted by alyx under cnbc
[3] Comments
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Maybe you’ve seen some of the new “I am CNBC” commercials already - I caught one of the anchors this morning talking about brushing his teeth at his desk. It’s just part of the campaign to keep CNBC afloat, which also includes raunchy humor and rampant cost-cutting:
Now seated behind the Squawk anchor desk, [Erin] Burnett says: “There were 2½ million hits on Google for ‘Hogan’s bottom.’ I just thought you’d like to know that.”

Trying to suppress a grin, [Mark] Haines adds: “Art Hogan is really glad his bottom hasn’t been violated.”

This kind of ribald humor is tolerated—even encouraged—on CNBC. The network is understandably seeing record ratings, thanks to everyone from anxious office drones to stay-at-home moms who wouldn’t necessarily know the Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) from a Labrador, all tuning in to monitor the nation’s financial meltdown—and its effect on the value of their 401(k) accounts.

While the gallows humor continues, CNBC isn’t exactly laughing all the way to the bank. Despite the yuks and the huge numbers, the network is now in the process of slashing as much as 10% from its budget. People at the network, says one staffer, “are scared s—less.”

Ratings are good, which you might expect in a time of economic turmoil. But none of that changes how NBC Universal and parent company GE are strapped for cash, so the anchors are trying to make themselves inseparable from the news by showing you more of their personality — and interspersing a lot of black humor, for which they have realized there is an audience. Hey, I could’ve told ‘em that!




It makes sound business sense, both for viewers and CNBC executives. Given the encroaching financial picture, it's a format shift the network may soon have to adopt as well.


I Am CNBC: Maria Bartiromo from Broadcasting & Cable on Vimeo


I Am CNBC: Charles Gasparino from Broadcasting & Cable on Vimeo


I Am CNBC: Joe Kernen from Broadcasting & Cable on Vimeo

lunar 02.12.2008 15:35

1 Anhang/Anhänge
...trübe :(

lunar 02.12.2008 18:28

Tue 2 Dec 2008

Alan Mulally To Receive Food Stamps

Posted by Jason under bailout , fail
[4] Comments
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Ford wants that industry bailout money BAD, y’all. Their essay to Congress on Why We Deserve Free Money, or as the kids are calling it these days, a “business plan” details just how the company isn’t going to fail in the next six months - and is even so optimistic as to think that it will stop losing money by 2011, which when you step back and think about that is a pretty horrible goal to set for yourself. Anyway, Ford wants $9b from the government, Or Else, and they mean srs bizniss.

Highlights of this “business plan” include:



  • Selling those pesky corporate jets, because the company MAKES transportation so it is dumb to pay for jets
  • Accelerating its electric car plan, so that the nation’s woefully inadequate power grid can melt down sooner rather than later
  • No more bonuses for anybody in the US, or for management anywhere
  • CEO Alan Mulally takes a salary of $1, supplemented only by the stack of $100 bills someone keeps dropping outside his office door every morning and since he can’t find who lost them he might as well keep them, right?
  • Pay lip service to reducing labor costs but actually continuing to take it in the keister from the UAW
  • Other such nonsense
It all sounds very fancy, and will likely sway members of Congress who were never really going to not give them the money anyway.

lunar 02.12.2008 20:04

Charlie Nenner

-> Posted by AuGirl @ 12:17 pm on December 2, 2008
on CNBS this am

www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=947497626


Nenner


-> Posted by aurum @ 13:14 pm on December 2, 2008
I find the interviews with Charles Nenner very interesting. I have watched all those on his website from this year (2008). I also believe that the course of the markets is set in advance by whatever forces. He describes that as knowing where and when but not really ever trying to question why. After the where and when have happened then the why will become apparent. I don’t necessarily agree with that part - but that is for another post.

What I find troublesome is with the view that these cycles are set in advance, one should not have to equivocate about what will happen. Yet he seems to do that in today’s interview in terms of whether we will follow the Japanese model. Also, if you watch other recent interviews - if I have heard him correctly (he is sometimes hard at least for me to follow and the interviewers don’t ask for clarification) - he has called for another leg down in 2009 (a wave 5). Perhaps this is not contradictory - in that he is getting his clients in for just for a short term bounce but if so that should have been mentioned. The deflation/inflation argument he seems to have changed sides a bit. First saying a rise in gold would show that deflation is no longer a threat and we had that rise. Also in that recent interview saying gold was where to be. But now in this interview possibly going back to deflation. If these cycles are set in advance and one can tell when and where (at least when) then there should be no doubt whether we will have inflation or deflation.

Of course analysts can and do change their minds. But his changes are in a short span and go against the idea that this is all determined in advance by cycles.

I would urge you all to listen to the interviews posted on his site. I find his record to be remarkable but his switching outlooks to belie his explanation of how it works.

aurum Nenner

charlesnenner.com/

aurum

-> Posted by AuGirl @ 15:10 pm on December 2, 2008
This interview from April 08 is not on his web

www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=705812193

I wonder why .. ya win some and ya lose some





AuGirl @ 15:10 pm on December 2, 2008

-> Posted by aurum @ 15:54 pm on December 2, 2008
He is somewhat consistent on crude. While he may not have anticipated the low - he still gives the outlook that crude will go back to the old highs into next year (2009) and then in May or mid-year will collapse and the May or mid-year high will be a very important high for crude.

I have other chart and cycle ideas that correspond to this outlook. That an important correction is oil will occur in April of 2009. I think of this rally in crude - if we get it - will be a high degree B wave and that crude will go lower into 2010 maybe 2012.

I have always found it dangerous to try to correlate markets - but this idea of crude could have implications.

aurum oil crude

lunar 02.12.2008 21:16



STAY AWAY, TOURISTS TOLD AS VENICE IS SUBMERGED...


Italien

Venedig steht komplett unter Wasser

Von Thomas Migge, 01.12.08, 21:16h, aktualisiert 02.12.08, 09:45h

In den frühen Morgenstunden kam das Wasser ganz schnell. Montagmittag hatte es bereits den historischen Höchststand von 1,56 Meter erreicht. Ein Hochwasser dieser Dimension bringt aber nicht nur nasse Keller und Erdgeschosse mit sich. Gefahr bedeutet das Wasser für die Statik der alten Gebäude.

VENEDIG - „In nur 20 Minuten kam das Wasser! Franzina del Monte läuft durch das Wasser in ihrem Laden, in dem sie Glaswaren und Karnevalsmasken verkauft, ganz in der Nähe der Rialto-Brücke. „Ich bin ruiniert, schauen Sie sich das doch nur an, und niemand hat uns vorgewarnt!“......

http://www.rundschau-online.de/html...063766153.shtml

lunar 02.12.2008 21:24

Zoloft online kaufen : Zoloft gegen Depression : Zoloft rezeptfrei

Zoloft online bestellen. Zoloft ist zuverlässig und wirksam in der Behandlung von Depressionen. Zoloft gegen Depressionen rezeptfrei online kaufen bei ...

aus den Internet ---> Zoloft - gegen Depression
Zoloft ist ein Antidepressivum mit dem Wirkstoff Sertalinum. Es ist ein s elektiver Serotonin-Wiederaufnahme-Hemmer und wird zur Behandlung von Depressionen eingesetzt. Zoloft kann auch bei Zwangs- und Panikstörungen, posttraumatischen Belastungsstörungen und bei sozialer Phobie eingesetzt werden.

Kaufen Sie Zoloft rezeptfrei online. Schluss mit Depressionen durch Zoloft.


***********************************

ZDF - Frontal 21
berichet - der Nebeneffekt von Zoloft kann Selbstmord sein, ist geschehen - jetzt wird auf dem Beipackzettel darauf hingewiesen



lunar 02.12.2008 22:46

Sir Evelyn de Rothschild calls for action

Viewpoint
Sir Evelyn de Rothschild
Financier


All of us - countries, corporations and consumers - have neglected basic principles.


Sir Evelyn: "action has to be taken and action must be taken very soon".

Ethics - we have lost sight of an honest day's work for an honest day's pay.

Careful management - we have indulged our wants without the taxes or the prices or the cash to pay for them.

Oversight - public relations and spin have replaced disclosure and transparency; casual yet complex accounting and accommodating rating agencies left us blissfully unaware of the problems, and we revelled in our ignorance...........

.....Where is the shame of those who only months earlier boasted of ever increasing profits, of ever more clever products, of ever easier loans?....

......
If the US government uses up its remaining credit to help the auto industry carry on as usual, who will lend the country the money to repair its bridges, build its power stations, clean its water, fuel its navy?

Slow revival

Thirty years ago, New York City found itself in a position similar to GM, Ford and Chrysler today.

They asked Washington for help. The government refused.

The Daily News summed it up in its front page headline - Ford to City: Drop Dead

Instead New York balanced its budget, taxed itself, reduced hiring, negotiated better labour contracts and gradually worked itself back to fiscal health.

It took more than 10 years.

Take responsibility

This era of struggle may last as long.......But in the end action has to be taken and action must be taken very soon if we are not going to see this stretched out over many years.


full story: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7754768.stm




über Evelyn de Rothschild:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evelyn_de_Rothschild


http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepf...,433074,00.html

lunar 03.12.2008 09:43

Tue 2 Dec 2008

GM Has Plan, Is Saved

Posted by Jason under bailout , fail



Like Ford before it, GM also has one of those “business plan” things that, had it created some years ago, might have saved the company from its current sorry state. This “business plan” is filled with fantastic ideas that GM’s management stole from WSJ opinion pieces on what it needs to do, but the company is not without its own doom and gloom and no-pressure statements: it needs $4b by the end of the year or it will fail and we are all going to die, in fire.

GM would also like $12b by the end of March, and access to another $6b. I woud like a helicopter and a three-breasted woman, so let’s see which one of us gets our wish first. In exchange for the suitcases of money, GM has promised to cut 20,000 to 30,000 jobs, chop a quarter of its dealerships, pay Rick Wagoner $1, and shutter or backburner all but four of its brands. There were also token promises to tell the UAW to get stuffed, which is about as likely as it is at Ford.

Chrysler came in with a request for $7b, and provided few enough details so as not to warrant a separate post. So Ford’s $9b plus GM’s $12b plus Chrysler’s $7b plus the $6b GM might need comes out to…$34b, which is one metric buttload more than the $25b they were offered. Of course, if the Medium 3 possessed even a third-grader’s grasp on basic mathematics, one suspects they would not be in their current pickle.


***************************************

Pelosi Says Bankruptcy by Automakers ‘Not an Option
’ (Update2)
By Laura Litvan and Lorraine Woellert



Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she believes either Congress or the Bush administration will step in to aid domestic automakers because bankruptcy is “not an option.”

“I believe that an intervention will happen,” Pelosi said at a briefing in Washington. “Everybody is disadvantaged by bankruptcy, including our economy, so that’s not an option.”.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aBkUNf9lHUKo


**********************************************

Cycling (usagold.com 02December2008; 20:22)
Cycling My first post after about ten years, but.
Did anyone else notice today, that the Speaker of the House , Nancy Pelosi was totally unprepared, and in Total Panic mode in her address to the national TV reporters, and nobody asked any hard Questions???? It’s time for the Blame Game to start





.....das ist mir gestern auch aufgefallen - sie machte den Eindruck als ob sie nicht mehr ganz alle Tassen im Schrank hätte :rolleyes

lunar 03.12.2008 09:48

02 December 2008

UN Economic Team Warns of a Dollar Crash


"Denial is the most predictable of all human responses. But, rest assured, this will be the sixth time we have destroyed it, and we have become exceedingly efficient at it."
The Architect of the Matrix
We have an hypothesis that what is learned from this series of financial crises, from 2000 to 2012, and the failure of the dollar reserve currency experiment, is going give rise to a new school of economics as the Great Depression lifted Keynesianism over classical economics, and the bear market and stagflation of the 1970's sparked the ascendancy of monetarism.

2009 is going to be a pivotal, volatile year, and most likely, interesting.

The Financial Times
UN team warns of hard landing for dollar

By Harvey Morris in New York
December 1 2008 08:48

The current strength of the dollar is temporary and the US currency risks a hard landing in 2009, according to a team of United Nations economists who foresaw a year ago that a US downturn would bring the global economy to a near standstill.

In their annual report on the world economy published on Monday, the economists said the dollar’s sharp rebound this autumn had been driven mainly by a flight to the safety of the international reserve currency as the financial crisis spread beyond the US.

The overall trend remained a downward one, however, reflecting perceptions that the US debt position was approaching unsustainable levels. An accelerated fall of the dollar could bring new turmoil to financial markets.

Investors might renew their flight to safety, though this time away from dollar-denominated assets, thereby forcing the US economy into a hard landing and pulling the global economy into a deeper recession,” the report said.

Publication of the annual survey by the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, its trade organisation Unctad and UN regional bodies, was brought forward by a month in the light of the financial crisis. It was launched in Doha to coincide with the UN-sponsored development financing conference in the Qatari capital.



The UN team said that, as the financial crisis spread beyond the US, there had been a massive shift of global financial assets into US Treasury bills, driving their yields almost to zero and pushing the dollar sharply higher. At the same time, however, the US’s external debt had risen to new heights that could provoke a dollar collapse.


The report recommends reform of the international reserve system away from almost exclusive reliance on the dollar and towards a globally backed multi-currency system.

Rob Vos, a Dutch economist who heads the UN’s policy and analysis division and who is responsible for the annual economic review, said the global economic pain could be eased if governments co-ordinated a spate of stimulus packages that were already under way.

“There has been a sea change in attitudes in favour of intervention and concerted action,” he told the Financial Times. He welcomed statements from US president-elect Barack Obama’s transition team in support of spending on infrastructure.

Posted by Jesse at 8:41 PM :verbeug

....was wird da wohl ausgebrütet :confused:rolleyes:gruebel

lunar 03.12.2008 09:53

Tue 2 Dec 2008

The Only One Left Out

Posted by alyx under goldman sachs



Who was the only man left out of today’s rally? It wasn’t The Bandit, as C closed up over 11%. Not John Stumpf, same deal. Not Jamie Dimon, he saw a nice rally too.

Nope, it was Lloyd Blankfein who had to sit in the corner all alone and try to blend in with the wallpaper. Goldman closed off its lows, but still ended down for the day, unlike its banking compatriots who were off to the races. Sorry, Lloyd:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., known for avoiding many of the blowups that have battered its Wall Street rivals, now is likely to report a net loss of as much as $2 billion for its quarter ended Nov. 28, according to industry insiders.

The loss, equal to about $5 a share, would be more than five times as steep as the current analyst consensus for the Wall Street firm, as it faces write-downs on everything from private equity to commercial real estate.

Look out for the poachers:
One headhunter, who says he is working for a couple of the more prestigious smaller investment banks, says he believes some of Goldman’s top M&A bankers are poachable for the first time in many years. If he is right — and brand-name bankers like Jack Levy and Warren Buffett favorite Byron Trott were to leave — that could cause some of Goldman’s other lesser-known stars to consider a move. A string of such defections, coupled with Goldman’s badly beaten-down share price, would likely spell disaster for the firm. Calls to Levy and Trott were not returned.

Lately, the time it takes to go from “golden child” to “on the brink” is, roughly, the blink of an eye, it seems. (....überfällig bei GS :bad)

lunar 03.12.2008 10:52

Ein interessanter Artikel zum Thema Wirtschaftsjournalismus

verfasst von harryinfo , 03.12.2008, 10:33

Fundierter und kritischer Beitrag zum Thema Wirtschaftsjournalismus. Dieser Beitrag zeigt deutlich, wie wichtig das Internet mit seinen Blogs und Foren in Bezug auf Informations- und Meinungsfreiheit ist.

"Wirtschaftsjournalismus hat versagt"

Gruß Harryinfo



Gruner + Jahr zentralisiert seine Wirtschaftsredaktionen in Hamburg, beim "Handelsblatt" werden Stellenstreichungen befürchtet und die Wochenendbeilage wird abgeschafft. Die "FAZ" hat ein Einstellungsstopp verkündet. Wirtschaftsmedien berichten nicht nur über die Finanzkrise, sie stecken mitten drin. MEEDIA sprach mit dem Hamburger Journalistik-Professor Siegfried Weischenberg darüber, wie die Krise den Wirtschaftsjournalismus verändert. Seine Diagnose: "Der Wirtschaftsjournalismus hat versagt."..........

lunar 03.12.2008 14:48

3. Dezember 2008, Neue Zürcher Zeitung

Private-Equity-Beteiligungen nur noch die Hälfte wert

feb. In der Finanzkrise stehen die Bewertungen von Private-Equity-Beteiligungen deutlich unter Druck, und die Renditen der Fonds der Beteiligungsgesellschaften dürften weiter sinken. Das jüngste Anzeichen hierfür ist, dass zunehmend Unternehmensbeteiligungen auf den Markt kommen und zu Abschlägen von bis zu 50% angeboten werden. Laut der Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg plant beispielsweise die als Investor mit grosser Anlagequote in Private Equity bekannte amerikanische Universität Harvard Anteile an Buyout-Fonds im Wert von 1,5 Mrd. $ zu verkaufen.

Ausserdem dürften bald grössere Beteiligungsblöcke auf den Markt kommen, weil einige Marktteilnehmer aufgrund ihrer schwierigen Lage zu Verkäufen gezwungen sind. Beispiele sind laut Bloomberg der vor dem Konkurs gerettete US-Versicherer AIG, der sein Private-Equity-Programm zurückfährt, und die kollabierte Bank Lehman Brothers.....
ganzer Artikel: http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirts..._1.1346864.html

lunar 03.12.2008 15:07

100-Year Bonds ?

By Barry Ritholtz - December 3rd, 2008, 5:43AM

Today’s WTF article is this clever funding idea, via former Treasury undersecretary (now at BlackRock) Peter Fisher: Issue 100-year bonds.
“If you issued a 100-year bond and had principal and interest pay down smoothly over the last 50 years, you create a great borrowing device for the Treasury that would let us move this hump of borrowing over the generational retirement that’s coming up,” Fisher, managing director and co-head of fixed income at BlackRock in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

The Treasury last month tripled its estimate of planned debt sales in the final three months of the year to a record $550 billion as it attempts to fund bailouts for banks and fiscal stimulus programs to jump start economic growth. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told a conference in Washington Nov. 17 that the U.S. will issue some $1.5 trillion worth of Treasury securities in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1.

Fisher, Treasury undersecretary from August 2001 to October 2003, eliminated 30-year bond auctions in 2001 to reduce government borrowing costs after four years of federal budget surpluses. The U.S. hasn’t been in the black since. The government revived sales of the security in February 2006.

Treasury yields have plummeted as investors have flocked to the safety of U.S. government debt during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Bonds rallied for a fourth day yesterday, sending yields on two-, 10- and 30-year debt to the lowest since the Treasury began regular sales of the securities.

That’s right — the idiot who eliminated the 30 year bond, just as the US entered its most irresponsible deficit creating spending spree in history, is now proposing the 100 year.

I am struck speechless.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/100-year-bonds/


*************************************************

Wed 3 Dec 2008

Long Bond Is Long

Posted by alyx under markets
[2] Comments
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When you don’t want to pay for something, the best possible thing you can do is find a way to make someone else pay for it. Thus the idea of 100-year Treasury bonds:
BlackRock’s Peter Fisher is recommending the US Treasury start selling 100-year bonds.

His reasoning? From Bloomberg:

“If you issued a 100-year bond and had principal and interest pay down smoothly over the last 50 years, you create a great borrowing device for the Treasury that would let us move this hump of borrowing over the generational retirement that’s coming up,” Fisher, managing director and co-head of fixed income at BlackRock in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

This effectively sloughs off your debts to the next generation, and the one after that. A good idea, and I think I will soon be transferring all my credit cards to the names of those kids I don’t have, and their heirs - I think it’ll work.

lunar 03.12.2008 15:08

ozymandius (1000+ posts) Wed Dec-03-08 06:21 AM
Response to Original message 8. U.S.-Liechtenstein Pact Will Dim Tax Haven’s Allure to Wealthy (ya think?) Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The United States and Liechtenstein plan to sign an agreement to share information on banking clients that will erode the principality’s allure to rich Americans trying to hide assets behind impenetrable bank-secrecy laws.

The accord culminates two years of negotiations, and follows a U.S. Senate committee probe this year of tax avoidance by clients of Swiss and Liechtenstein banks, including LGT Group, which is controlled by the principality’s ruling family.

The agreement will be signed Dec. 8 in Liechtenstein’s capital of Vaduz, Matthew Keller, an official at the principality’s Washington embassy, said in an interview. That will leave only Monaco and Andorra as havens without formal procedures for exchanging information with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, according to the Paris-based Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

....

The Liechtenstein accord takes effect in 2010, according to a statement from the principality’s embassy in Washington. It covers financial information for 2009 and later tax years. Americans are required to disclose most offshore assets to the IRS, although some take advantage of bank-secrecy standards in places such as Liechtenstein and Switzerland to hide money from tax collectors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aew...

lunar 03.12.2008 16:52

Nick Russo on “the big rollover” recent KFNN appearance

-> Posted by overton @ 10:14 am on December 3, 2008
lots more pain (years) but likes gold in January. Russo was only a 15% in gold guy

http://htod.cdncon.com/o2/crcbroad/00056101.MP3

....ziemlich lang - aber schon interessant oder eher beunruhigend zu hören :cool

baby-boomers no key-spending any more, the are mostly in a horrible shape
you get a 2nd chance - a modest upside
......

lunar 03.12.2008 17:46

Zitat:
Zitat von krisskross

Der Mann schaut ja immer so ein bisschen drein, als könne er kein Wässerchen trüben. Paul Krugman, Nobel-Preisträger 2008, lässt sich bei CNBC über die Plagen der (amerikanischen) Wirtschaft aus, und über die Maßnahmen, die ergriffen werden müssen.

Einige Kernpunkte:
  • Die Wirtschaft ist im freien Fall
  • Es sieht schlimmer aus als in Japan in den 90ern
  • Die Konsumenten fallen aus, Investments fallen aus
  • Wir brauchen noch mehr staatliche Eingriffe
Und last but not least:
  • Die Banken müssen verstaatlicht werden. Das will keiner, aber es müsse sein, zumindest temporär.
Tja, wie sehr der harmlose Look täuschen kann. Hier gehts zum Video




http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nac...ht/2637870.html



merci :)

lunar 03.12.2008 18:10

03 December 2008

Is Goldman Sachs Managing Its Earning Expectations?


An interesting theory from the Columbia School of Journalism regarding the Goldman Sachs story featured at The Wall Street Journal the other day.

Did Goldman Sachs leak its own results? Are they accurate? Or was this a setup to dampen expectations on the results?

Or merely to provide 'guidance' to the Street? Note the story at the bottom that shows analysts turning increasingly bearish on Goldman in October, and following the Wall Street Journal story with steep increases in projected losses due to larger than expected writedowns.

Let's see how Goldman's numbers and follow-on stories come out, and judge accordingly.

The Audit
Columbia Journalism Review

December 02, 2008 10:06 PM
Weird Goldman Sourcing at the Journal
By Ryan Chittum

A [Wall Street] Journal scoop this morning—or at least its sourcing—may have confused some readers.

The paper reported that Goldman Sachs’s loss this quarter would be much worse than expected, news it attributed to “industry insiders.”

That’s funny attribution, but okay. But scan the rest of the story and you’ll find that it appears nobody from Goldman was ever given an opportunity to comment. (Odd because the follow on stories indicate Goldman declined comments to other news outlets - Jesse)

Now, it’s highly unlikely that these experienced reporters got a story on A1 in the WSJ without calling the company for comment.

What the lack of a Goldman attribution signals to us is that Goldman Sachs itself leaked this to the Journal as a way to feed hungry beat reporters and get bad news into its stock price before it reports earnings.

The Journal has a nearly iron-clad internal rule that says a story can’t say a source declined to comment if that source is quoted elsewhere in the story. That can make for awkward negotiations if a reporter is trying to protect the identity of a source who doesn’t want to be named. (Apparently the WSJ broke that rule because Goldman declined to comment, so who leaked the insider information? - Jesse)

I don’t know why Goldman was so finicky that it wouldn’t let the Journal use its standard “people familiar with the matter” phrasing, but I’ve dealt with similarly skittish/irrational sources.

But for what it’s worth as an insiderism, that’s your likely explanation.

Posted by Jesse at 11:34 AM :verbeug

and more ---> http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...ts-earning.html

lunar 03.12.2008 19:08

CIC Won’t ‘Dare’ Invest in Financial Firms, Lou Says (Update2)

By Nipa Piboontanasawat and James Peng



Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China’s sovereign wealth fund said it wouldn’t “dare” invest in foreign financial firms after losing $6 billion on stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP.

“I don’t dare to invest in financial institutions now,” Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp., said today at a conference in Hong Kong. “The policies of the developed nations on these institutions are not clear. Until they are clear, I don’t dare to invest in them. What if they go bust? I will lose everything.”.......

......CIC, with $200 billion, invested $5 billion last year for 9.9 percent of Morgan Stanley and $3 billion in Blackstone, the world’s largest private-equity firm. Both New York-based companies have lost more than three-quarters of their market values since the investments were made.......

full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...A&refer=finance

lunar 03.12.2008 19:19

Quote:
Originally Posted by dariusf
Hi sorry about what might be an obvious answer but which DAX are you referring to? DAX:IND ?

Thanks


Most important german stoxx indices ... besides FTSE one of the most important of europe ... same for germany as is dow for US

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egdaxi

;):D

lunar 03.12.2008 20:02

Surfen auf dem Markusplatz

Reuters - Duncan Zuur aus den Niederlanden hat die Rekordflut in Venedig die Erfüllung eines langjährigen Traums beschert

http://de.news.yahoo.com/3/20081203...tz-670d613.html

lunar 03.12.2008 20:57

Quote of the day

[Preznit CrashTest Dummy] says he will leave office with 'head held high.' Good. It will be easier to throw tomatoes at him.

-- BuzzFlash.



http://www.buzzflash.com/#Video
Posted by maru at 12/02/2008 04:40:00 PM 2 comments

lunar 03.12.2008 21:03

Wed 3 Dec 2008

You Just Got Served

Posted by Jason under bandit



LOLFed hero Paul Krugman awesomely spoke with Newsweek today about matters economic, as Krugman is wont to do, when the inevitable subject of “worst banker in the world” came up. I have already cast my ballot but it might be worthwhile to hear the opinion of someone who, you know, actually knows what he is talking about.
I’ve written a column this week on who is the worst banker in the world. I’m wondering if you have any thoughts.
Just because he’s easy to hate, I’d say Angelo Mozillo. Citigroup, also. They didn’t have the worst behavior, but just because they’re so big. When you have somebody that big doing things that bad, then it’s way up there on the list. There’s a lot of naked emperors out there these days. (emphasis mine, all mine)

Okay, fine, he didn’t call out the Bandit by name, and he said Countrywide’s Mozillo first, but I know what he was really driving at: Vikram Pandit is the worst human being who ever lived, and has cooties.

For his part, the Bandit responded by accusing Krugman of having a “slightly unkempt beard” and then spitefully foreclosed on one of his properties. The two are expected to meet in the playground after school, to settle this like men.

lunar 04.12.2008 09:05

petruchio2100
Quote:
...The most fundamental reason people buy stocks is to buy earnings. Earnings are plummeting and so should stock prices. That they are not yet, is a testament to investors' high degree of unfounded optimism, or ignorance, or both. Actually, 300 is a best case scenario since it assumes we've already hit the earnings bottom. Since earnings are likely to continue to get worse, a 6 P/E may mean 100 for the S&P, but I'll be conservative and just stick with my 300 projection.....


lunar 04.12.2008 09:28

03 December 2008

US Mint to Issue the Perfect Silver Dollar for 2009


Sometimes history and great moments just come together with a certain perfect resonance.





"The only sure bulwark of continuing liberty is a government strong enough to protect the interests of the people,
and a people strong enough and well enough informed to maintain its sovereign control over the government."
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
"Let us resolve to be masters, not the victims, of our history, controlling our own destiny
without giving way to blind suspicions and emotions."
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
Posted by Jesse at 9:41 PM :verbeug

lunar 04.12.2008 09:35

US Dollar Long Term Chart








Posted by Jesse at 1:02 AM :verbeug

lunar 04.12.2008 09:37

04 December 2008

Credit Crisis Storms the Walls of Fortress the Hedge Fund




NY Times
Fortress, the Hedge Fund, Is Crumbling
By MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED
December 4, 2008

When Wesley R. Edens and his partners founded their investment firm a decade ago, they chose a name that evoked unshakeable bastions: Fortress.

But now their stronghold is under siege — and some of its investors are running for cover.

Cracks are spreading throughout the Fortress Investment Group, once a leading player in the worlds of hedge funds and leveraged buyouts. On Wednesday, Fortress’s shares fell 25 percent to $1.87, a new low, after the company temporarily suspended withdrawals from its largest hedge fund. Investors had asked to withdraw $3.51 billion from the money-losing fund, Drawbridge Global Macro.

But Wednesday’s slide was just the latest turn in a long, downward spiral for Fortress. The once-celebrated company has lost 89 percent of its market value over the last year as hedge funds and private equity, once lucrative businesses that helped define an era of unrivaled Wall Street wealth, have crumbled in the credit crisis.

It is a remarkable turnabout for Fortress, which less than two years ago was soaring along with the rest of Wall Street. Its debut as a public company, in February 2007, was heralded as the dawn of a new age of big hedge funds and buyout firms. Mr. Edens, a former executive at Lehman Brothers and BlackRock, and his fellow founders became instant billionaires. Their deal paved the way for even splashier initial public offerings by the likes of the Blackstone Group.

But life as public companies has proved treacherous for Fortress, Blackstone and the other so-called alternative investment firms that sold stock to the public shortly before the credit crisis erupted. They have had to contend with the harsh judgment of stockholders as the credit on which they depend has grown increasingly scarce.

“Frankly, it’s very difficult to say anything other than that I would have no interest as an investor in holding or buying these shares,” Jackson Turner, an analyst at Argus Research, said. Mr. Turner has a sell rating on Fortress shares.

A Fortress spokeswoman declined to comment.

Fortress’s plight reflects the ills plaguing much of high finance. Investors are abandoning hedge funds in growing numbers, and the industry, once so profitable, is now in the midst of a wrenching shakeout.

Even before Fortress lowered the gates on redemptions at its Drawbridge Global Macro fund, other big-name hedge funds had done so. More are expected to follow suit. Some investors fear that a rush of withdrawals could force funds to dump investments en masse, unsettling already shaky financial markets.

Fortress’s biggest fund is withering. In a regulatory filing on Wednesday, Fortress said that Drawbridge Global would have about $3.7 billion in assets under management as of Jan. 1, compared to the $8 billion it reported having as of Sept. 30.

But while Fortress’s earnings will suffer because of the redemptions — hedge funds earn fees based on both the amount of assets they manage and the performance of those funds — the withdrawals alone do not necessarily spell the company’s doom. Less than 30 percent of Fortress’s $34 billion in assets under management are subject to investor redemptions. Most are locked up in private equity funds that do not allow quick withdrawals of capital.

Still, private equity firms have been hurt by the near-freeze in the credit markets, which has limited their ability to strike new deals and dealt a severe blow to many of the debt-laden companies they own.

Fortress dodged a major setback when it managed to refinance IntraWest, the big Canadian ski resort. But investors worry that Fortress has taken damage from its exposure to the commercial real estate market, which is coming under severe stress. Fortress was a major lender to Harry Macklowe, the real estate mogul, who had to sell off trophy properties like the General Motors Building in Manhattan to pay back his creditors.

Just as it was the first major alternative-investment manager to go public, Fortress is now being watched closely as a canary in the coal mine. The Drawbridge fund’s nearly 50 percent redemption rate far outpaces the 20 to 30 percent that the market had expected at hedge funds on average, said Roger Freeman, an analyst at Barclays Capital.

“From my standpoint, I wonder how many other funds are seeing similar redemption rates,” he said. “This is definitely a negative indicator for the industry.”

For months, Fortress has been the subject of gallows humor suggesting that it might simply buy back its shares and take itself private once more. While the company’s executives have asserted their commitment to remaining public, several analysts said that Fortress’s problems were clearly intensified by the brighter light that comes with being a public company.

“It forces their problems to be out in the open,” Mr. Turner said. “It made the issues that they have much more amplified.”



Posted by Jesse at 1:38 AM :verbeug

lunar 04.12.2008 09:44

..da er uns so viel :supi liefert :)

Jesse


Über mich: Classicist, Engineer, International Business Management, Economist, and finally Home at Last.

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In Blogger seit April 2007 Profilansichten 1.818

lunar 04.12.2008 09:52

Wed 3 Dec 2008

Treasury’s Housing Stimulus Will Probably Result In Musical Chairs

Posted by alyx under bailout



Treasury considers market manipulations to bring the rate for NEW mortgages down to 4.5%:
The plan, which is in the development stages, would use mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring loan rates down as low as 4.5%, a full percentage point lower than the prevailing rates for 30-year fixed mortgages.

Government officials are under pressure to stem foreclosures, which underpin much of the current financial crisis. Treasury has struggled for months to come up with a plan that would ease the market without appearing to bail out homeowners and lenders.

Under the plan, Treasury would buy securities underpinning loans guaranteed by the two mortgage giants, which are temporarily under the control of the government, as well as those guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration.

Useless, as we all know. There is no point in trying to stimulate NEW lending in the US - over the last few years, everyone who was qualified to own a home (and a lot of people were not) inevitably bought one (or ten) - so basically, there are not very many qualified buyers left to benefit from this plan, with the exception of new college graduates who might be sniffing around for a domicile but are unlikely to be able to find a job in this environment and so are bound for Mom and Dad’s basement regardless.

If this does come to fruition, the only question is what games can people play to bring down their rate. Probably the easiest is to trade houses with the guy down the street from you :rolleyes who has pretty much the same floor plan, because 90% of the houses in the US are built by the same five builders. You both get “new” mortgages at 4.5%, the National Association of Realtors is happy because it looks like two houses “sold”, and some bureaucrat gets to keep his job filing paper. Win-win-win.

Bernanke’s laughing ‘cuz he knows it won’t work.

....hoffentlich vergeht denen das lachen endlich
:mad

lunar 04.12.2008 10:13

China, US dialogue of global significance


Beijing has called on Washington to stabilize its precarious economy and protect its investments in America as the two sides opened strategic economic dialogues.


Delegates attend the opening session of the 5th China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue in Beijing, December 4, 2008. China's pursuit of fast, stable growth is the country's contribution to restoring global financial stability, Vice-Premier Wang Qishan said on Thursday. [Agencies]

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (R) speaks during the opening session of the 5th China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue in Beijing, December 4, 2008. Paulson, at the beginning of two days of economic talks with top Chinese officials, praised China on Thursday for its help in trying to tamp down global economic turbulence. [Agencies]


China's Vice-Premier Wang Qishan (front C) gestures as he and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (front 3rd R) attend the opening session of the 5th China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue in Beijing, December 4, 2008. US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, at the beginning of two days of economic talks with top Chinese officials, praised China on Thursday for its help in trying to tamp down global economic turbulence. [Agencies]




US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (2nd L), as special representative of president of the U.S., shakes hands with a Chinese representative before the opening ceremony of the Fifth China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 4, 2008. [Xinhua]

Herr Paulson wird wohl etwas bescheidener auftreten müsen als die letzten Male :rolleyes

lunar 04.12.2008 11:08

updated 1 hour, 16 minutes ago
Zimbabwe troops on streets as cash limits ease


(CNN) -- Armored cars patrolled the streets of Zimbabwe's capital and residents flocked to banks Thursday after limits on cash withdrawals were lifted in the inflation-ravaged African nation.

With prices rising even more than once a day, shopping is a mathematical proficiency test for Zimbabweans.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe had capped maximum daily withdrawals at 500,000 Zimbabwean dollars -- about 25 U.S. cents, and about a quarter of the price of a loaf of bread :rolleyes But faced with mounting chaos in a country already in economic free fall, the bank decided last week to raise that limit to 100 million dollars ($50 U.S.) per week.

Soldiers were deployed to all banks in anticipation of throngs of people lining up to withdraw money Thursday, when the increase took effect. Wednesday, police chased depositors away and arrested union leaders who planned to protest the limits.

Zimbabwe's inflation rate of 231 million percent is the world's highest. In addition, the country is faced with a growing outbreak of cholera that its government declared a national emergency Thursday.......

full story: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/a...ests/index.html

lunar 04.12.2008 15:32

...bei DU gesehen :)



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