The Paradise Perspective:
Commentary from a Free and Compassionate Alternate Reality
by Glen AllportExclusive to STR
June 30, 2008
- 1 -
2008's First HalfSo far, 2008 has been a thrill ride of the worst kind: The Dow has given back nearly all its gains for the last two years, housing prices and sales continue dropping with "no sign of a bottom" (per S&P spokesman David M. Blitzer, quoted in Housing prices post record declines at CNNMoney.com), prices for food and other consumables are rising, "legions" of the newly-homeless are living in their cars or RVs, and oil is over $140/barrel, after hitting $100 for the first time on January 3 and then declining briefly to near $80. Gasoline has now been over $4/gal for some time, which is killing Detroit . Full-size trucks and SUVs, the cash cows of the American car biz, have become lepers on the car lots. High gas prices are also choking off what little disposable income still remains for the middle class.........
Inflationary Recession Is in Place
Banking Solvency Crisis Has Opened First Phase of Monetary Inflation Hyperinflationary Depression Remains Likely As Early As 2010This is a long, detailed look at the situation, with charts and graphs. I highly recommend reading this report in full. One of the charts tells the tale in a nutshell:
2) Politics and government action:
Government help reliably makes things worse. All of history shows this, and any intelligent political or economic theory (the Austrian School of economics, for one) describes why. My column The Worst Way to Do Anything: Why a Healthy World Requires Freedom from Coercion provides extensive detail on the topic, using examples most people are familiar with.
With that basic understanding in mind, it is easy to guess what our masters have in store for us: more of what caused the problems in the first place. One reason we can count on "more of the same" is that the disaster most Americans are suffering from is not a disaster for the power elite: for them it is a huge and very profitable success........
2008 Update, Part 2
by Glen AllportExclusive to STR
July 8, 2008
Last week we looked at trends for the economy and for government action, and found the situation less than optimal, in much the same way that an outbreak of Ebola in your neighborhood would be less than optimal.
This week we consider the situation for commodities (and in particular oil and metals), food supplies, and the environment.
3) Oil, metals, and other natural resources
The dramatic trend for higher commodity prices which began several years ago is not an artificially inflated bubble about to pop, but instead a very real expression of powerful, fundamental change in the world (which I'll describe shortly). Downticks are inevitable in any bull market, but the commodity uptrend itself isn't going away anytime soon. Unlike in a bubble (e.g., the recent bubble in housing) buyers are snapping up the available supply for current use as it comes to market, not buying and holding actual inventory for expected future gain........
......The lie at the heart of the fiat currency empire is that a central bank can and should be the sole provider of a nation's money supply, and that said supply should consist of worthless pieces of paper (and now, electronic entries in computers) that can be almost-instantly created in any quantity by the central bank at essentially zero cost. These currency units are tied to, and redeemable in, nothing whatsoever.......
........(much to read)
How to respond to all this?
Is there a simple set of instructions you could follow to protect yourself and your family from what is coming?
Not if you are planning to remain on planet Earth, there isn't (although I'll discuss some possibly-helpful actions in a moment). Certainly, the United States is significantly less prosperous and less free than it was only recently, and the trend continues. Uber-investor Jim Rogers recently sold his Manhattan townhouse (for $15.75 million) and moved his family to Singapore; Rogers, with an excellent track-record for predicting trends, is convinced that the current financial meltdown will become "much worse" and that Asia will be a better place to live.
He may be right in the near term; Asia is certainly in better shape than America or Europe at this point, but Asia absolutely will be pulled into the vortex along with everyone else, and how things will go on the ground as the collapse gains speed is anyone's guess. The food crisis is already causing riots in Asia and fuel shortages are creating long lines at fuel stations in China and elsewhere. Pollution in China is at epic levels, hurting human health and the economy while sparking riots and other civil unrest. As the oceans themselves grow more polluted and barren, as oil and metals become more scarce and expensive, as fresh water for irrigation, drinking, and other uses disappears from water tables and rivers, as the trillions of dollars in Asian monetary reserves evaporate into nothingness (and as local currencies follow suit), as factory orders from overseas dry up and costs escalate, and as Asian governments clamp down on the inevitable unrest and otherwise meddle in a desperate effort to "help," what will this fast-growing and most densely-populated region of the world become? An oasis in a world gone mad, or just another hot zone in the madness?
Get clear on this: your children's lives will not be like your own. A new era is beginning, and it will take your complete attention and a great deal of effort to survive comfortably – or perhaps at all – much less to prosper in the years ahead......
full story: http://www.strike-the-root.com/82/allport/allport1.html
Banken-Globalisierung 2.0 - die neuen "Power Broker"
Asiatische regierungsnahe Investoren, Erdölexporteure, Hedge-Funds und Private-Equity-Funds gewinnen zunehmend an Einfluss auf die globalen Finanzmärkte, wie aus einer heute für die Öffentlichkeit freigegebenen Studie des McKinsey Global Institute hervorgeht. Diese vier Gruppen, die McKinsey als die «New Power Brokers» bezeichnet, haben ihre zur Verfügung stehenden finanziellen Mittel im Jahr 2007 um 18% auf 11,5 Bio. USD gesteigert. In einer Aktualisierung der bereits im vergangenen Jahr durchgeführten Analyse kommen die Experten nun zu dem Schluss, dass sich die Kräfteverschiebung von den traditionellen, bedeutenden westlichen Marktteilnehmern hin zu den neuen Akteuren aus anderen Gegenden der Welt durch die Finanzkrise zusätzlich akzentuiert hat, schreibt die 'NZZ'.
Analysten verschwiegen Risiken
verfasst von Gaby :verbeug (Noch) Norddeutschland, 10.07.2008, 13:14
"Analysten und Manager der großen Ratingagenturen Standard & Poor?s (S&P), Moody?s und Fitch haben die Gefahren der Subprime-Krise um US-Ramschhypotheken früh erkannt, ihr Wissen aber für sich behalten.
SEC-Chef Christopher Cox hat schwere Mängel bei den Ratingagenturen gefunden.
Dies hat jetzt die US-Börsenaufsicht SEC aufgedeckt (....sooooo schnell :rolleyes :ironie) Sie veröffentlichte einen 37-seitigen Bericht, in dem zum Teil auch anonymisierte interne E-Mails zitiert werden. Darin mokieren sich die Analysten über ihre eigenen Ratings. Man schaffe ein "Monster", schrieb zum Beispiel ein hochrangiger Analyst an einen Kollegen im eigenen Hause über sogenannte Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs). Bei diesen werden oft strukturierte Anleihen nochmals umverpackt. "Hoffentlich sind wir alle reich und in Rente, wenn dieses Kartenhaus zusammenfällt", schrieb der :kotz Analyst.".....
Abdalla Salem El-Badri, left, the OPEC secretary general,
met in April with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. (Morteza Nikoubazl/Reuters)
OPEC chief warns of 'unlimited' oil prices if Iran is attacked
By James Kanter
Published: July 10, 2008
VIENNA: The head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned Thursday that oil prices would see an "unlimited" increase in the case of a military conflict involving Iran, because the group's members would be unable to make up the lost production.
"We really cannot replace Iran's production - it's not feasible to replace it," Abdalla Salem El-Badri, the OPEC secretary general, said in an interview.
Iran, the second-largest producing country in OPEC, after Saudi Arabia, produces about four million barrels of oil a day out of the daily worldwide production of close to 87 million barrels.
The country has been locked in a lengthy dispute with Western nations over its nuclear ambitions.
In recent weeks, the price of oil has risen higher on speculation that Israel could be preparing to mount an attack on the country's nuclear facilities. The saber-rattling intensified this week with missile tests by Iran.....
.......Steps taken by the European Union and in the United States to cut dependence on fossil fuels meant that OPEC had no alternative but to take a cautious approach before going ahead with plans to invest up to $540 billion in oil production up to 2020.
"If we don't see the demand, we are not going to invest,"said Badri, adding that there was real doubt over what amount of money OPEC nations would invest after 2012.
OPEC nations "don't want to spend their money on something they cannot use," he said.
full story: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07...siness/opec.php
:gruebel ...ob das der FED und den Herren Paulson/Bush & Co. wohl schmeckt :rolleyes
....warum lässt man sie nicht einfach dort stehen :rolleyes:confused:dd
:p U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr., left, testifying at a House committee hearing in Washington, with Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
U.S. government considers takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
By Stephen Labaton and Steven R. Weisman
Published: July 11, 2008
WASHINGTON: Alarmed by the growing financial stress at the two largest mortgage finance companies in the United States, senior officials in the Bush administration are considering a plan to have the government take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship if their problems worsen, according to people briefed about the plan.
The companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been hit by the tsunami of mortgage foreclosures. Their shares are plummeting and their borrowing costs are rising because of investor worries that they will suffer losses far larger than the $11 billion they have already lost in recent months. Now, as housing prices decline further and foreclosures grow, the markets are worried that Fannie and Freddie themselves may default on their debt......
full story: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07...ss/mortgage.php
... erste Dollarblüten treiben ( flussaufwärts )
Richtung Münsterbrücke – ppt macht's möglich.
IndyMac Seized by U.S. Regulators Amid Cash Crunch (Update4)
By Ari Levy and David Mildenberg
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- IndyMac Bancorp Inc. became the second-biggest federally insured financial company to be seized by U.S. regulators after a run by depositors left the California mortgage lender short on cash.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will run a successor institution, IndyMac Federal Bank, starting next week, the Office of Thrift Supervision said in an e-mailed statement today. Customers will have access to funds this weekend via automated teller machines. Regulators intend to eventually sell the company.
The Pasadena, California-based lender specialized in so- called Alt-A mortgages, which didn't require borrowers to provide documentation on their incomes :dumm IndyMac's home state, where Countrywide Financial Corp. was also located before it was bought last week, has been among the hardest hit by foreclosures.
``Given their focus on Alt-A and a heavy concentration in California, they would have suffered meaningful losses in almost any scenario,'' Brian Horey, president of Aurelian Management LLC in New York, said before the seizure was announced. Aurelian is short-selling IndyMac shares to gain from declines.
Had IndyMac ``applied some common sense and changed their approach to underwriting as the housing market peaked, they might have lived to see the next cycle,'' Horey said.
IndyMac came under fire last month from U.S. Senator Charles Schumer, who said lax lending standards and deposits purchased from third parties left it on the brink of failure. In the 11 business days after Schumer explained his concerns in a June 26 letter, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion, the OTS said.
``This institution failed due to a liquidity crisis,'' OTS Director John Reich said in the statement. ``Although this institution was already in distress, I am troubled by any interference in the regulatory process.''.....
......$900 Million in Losses
The lender racked up almost $900 million in losses as home prices tumbled and foreclosures climbed to a record. California ranked second among U.S. states, with one foreclosure filing for every 192 households in June, 2.6 times the national average........
full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...Ulk8&refer=home
Bankenaufsicht schließt kalifornische Hypothekenbank
Größter Banken-Crash in den USA seit 1984: Die US-Aufsichtsbehörde hat die kalifornische Hypothekenbank IndyMac in Folge der Kreditkrise geschlossen. Experten rechnen mit einem Schaden in Höhe von bis zu acht Milliarden Dollar. mehr... [ Forum ]
die Nummer zwei. Seit vergangenem Sommer haben die Institute mehr als 11 Milliarden an Verlusten angehäuft. Hinter den beiden Konzernen stehen mehr als die Hälfte aller Hypotheken in den USA. Fannie Mae und Freddie Mac befinden sich zwar in Privatbesitz. Wegen der engen Verzahnung mit der Politik erwarteten die Finanzmärkte stillschweigend, dass der Staat (...also der Steuerzahler :mad) letztlich für deren Schulden weitgehend geradestehen würde. Diese Hoffnung hat sich nun getrübt.........
... eine weite Reise, der eagle
President George Bush: 'Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter'
By Robert Winnett, Deputy Political Editor and Urmee Khan
Last Updated: 7:52AM BST 10/07/2008
George Bush surprised world leaders with a joke about his poor record on the environment as he left the G8 summit in Japan.
George Bush shares a joke with Prime Minister of Japan Yasuo Fukuda and Chinese President Hu Jintao at the G8 Summit in Toyako
George Bush proves to be quite an entertainer
The American leader, who has been condemned throughout his presidency for failing to tackle climate change, ended a private meeting with the words: "Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter." :rolleyes
He then punched the air while grinning widely, as the rest of those present including Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy looked on in shock.....
full story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/2277298/President-George-Bush-'Goodbye-from-the-world's-biggest-polluter'.html
....er ist wirklich kaum zu überbieten :dumm obwohl - ausnahmsweise sagte er ja die Wahrheit :rolleyes
Bewerbungsunterlagen für Fluglotsen in Blindenschrift
Blinde können sich in England als Fluglotsen bewerben. Für Anwärter gibt der Flughafen St. Mary's Unterlagen in Blindenschrift heraus. Diskriminierung oder nicht - für den Job werden gute Augen gefordert.
ganzer Artikel: http://www.spiegel.de/reise/aktuell...,565350,00.html
I'm the barn owl watching the mouse
Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
Jul 14, 2008
Extracted from the Jul 11, 2008 edition of Richard's RemarksWhat am I thinking about these bright summer days? I'm thinking, as usual, about a long list of things, but one item I've been zeroing in on is the 50% Principle as it applies to the current market.
The 50% Principle works like this -- We have the Dow low of 7286 recorded in October 2002. And we have the record Dow high of 14164 recorded in October 2007. The 50% or halfway level between Dow 7286 and Dow 14164 comes in at 10725.
As of today's close, the Dow was just 375 points above the 10725 halfway level. The 50% Principle tells us that if the Dow closes decisively below 10725, then there is a good chance the Dow will continue down to test the level from which the entire advance started -- that level is 7286.
And I wonder to myself -- what would happen if the Dow breaks below 10725 and then declines to the 7286 area? My immediate thought is -- disaster. And probably a severe recession or even a depression. Remember, the Dow is only 375 points away from the halfway or 50% level.
Anyway, that's one thing I'm thinking about, and that's one thing I'm watching. I'm watching it the way a barn owl watches a mouse -- in other words, with extreme interest.
A second phenomenon I've got my eyes on is the extraordinary performance (at least so far) of the D-J Transportation Average. At today's close, the Transports were a big 635 points ABOVE their January 2008 low close of 4140.29. The Transport action is the most bullish event that has taken place in the market so far.
What happens, I ask myself, if the Dow collapses through 10725 and the Transports still do not confirm, meaning that the Transports continue to hold above 4140.29? That's a question I can't answer, because I've never seen a situation like the present one before.
Here's oil (which almost all Transportation depends on) over 145 a barrel, here's gasoline near five dollars a gallon, here's diesel at record highs -- and the Transports continue to hold up. Amazing. Something's going on with the Transports that I don't know about. But I don't have to know -- I don't have to know why, I just have to know what -- what are the blessed Transports doing?
I do feel this in my guts. Between now and the fourth quarter of 2008 we're going to see some fireworks. And I'm wondering whether this market can possibly hit bottom somewhere during October-November period. I talked to Paul Desmond (head man at Lowry's) yesterday. He said that one reason for the huge spread between the Selling Pressure Index and the Buying Power Index (compared with spreads in the past) has to do with the massive increase in NYSE volume over recent years.
Paul also offered the opinion that the lows of this market maybe take place over an extended period of time such as the extended low base of 1980 to 1982. And I agree with Paul -- I've been thinking the same thing. The problems now imbedded in the US (and the world) economies are so severe that it could take several years of a bottoming process before the next bull market can get started.
We both agreed that the next bull market, from wherever and whenever it starts -- could be huge, could be a super-whopper. There's all that fiat currency in the world today -- multi-trillion of dollars worth of it. One of these days, that money will be spent. But first we must somehow arrive at the bottom of the current damnable bear market or whatever you want to call it.
full story: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/r...sell071408.html
Originally Posted by beggarsthumb - http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadca...2008-0712-2.mp3
the interview w/bud burrell on puplava was fantastic. a must listen
toothpicker - Wow - that was intense - and good!
Buds' webpage: http://www.thesanitycheck.com/
...nach einer ziemlich langen Einleitung, geht es um "naked short selling"
A Mental Depression
Posted: July 12 2008
Sen. Phil Gramm and some of his trite ideas on the economy, his enron loophole law that is still in effect and driving oil speculation, and other blunders and folly of economists in power, credit default swaps, Fed grabs more power, get out of the markets or get ready to experience the consequence, G8 gastronomic orgy served while discussing food crisis, America no longer any kind of model citezen in the world......
......."We've never been more dominant; we've never had more natural advantages than we have today," he said. "We have benefited greatly" from the globalization of the economy in the last 30 years.
These quotes from former Senator Gramm, who is one of the most corrupt personalities of Washington politics and who we can only describe as the penultimate example of both a reprobate and a sociopath, will go down as the most false, crass and callous remarks in the history of American politics. This may well have cost Dumbo Presidential candidate, John McCain, who Gramm advises on economic matters, the presidential election this November. We are left stunned and speechless at the unmitigated arrogance and gall of this miscreant. Under what rock, we ask, did the elitists ever find this ball of slime and detritus?
Now mind you that this is the man who helped push through The Financial Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the "Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act," which effectively repealed the Glass-Steagall Act which was passed during the Depression Era as a measure intended to avoid a repeat of the 1929 Stock Market Crash. The Glass-Steagall Act prohibited a bank from offering investment, commercial banking and insurance services, or from consolidating with other companies providing such services. The ill-advised, spurious and egregious repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act is the single most important factor driving the subprime and credit-crunch debacles because it allowed rampant fraud and outrageous conflicts of interest to develop between different financial sectors, resulting in a complete breakdown of confidence and trust in our system of finance which has been destroyed right before your eyes. "Gramm's Blunder" and "Greenspan's Folly" together have powered the fraud and deceit that made the subprime debacle possible. The passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, more than any other causal factor, destroyed the due diligence and integrity of the entire financial sector, and paved the way for rampant and outrageous fraud by dismantling the usual system of checks and balances......
........Apparently, at least according to Mr. Gramm, the destruction of our economy by profligate financial policies, powered by his toxic legislation, an out-of-control Fed and the elitist free trade-globalization agenda, is all a figment of your imagination. You're really not experiencing hyper-stagflation and runaway oil and food prices. Never mind all the silly talk about negative GDP and severe recession, which our totally truthful and infallible government statistics prove do not exist. Never mind the increasing trade deficits and lopsided balance of payments, as it is quite clear we are experiencing an export boom in our virtually nonexistent manufacturing sector. And never mind that minimum wage service job you had to take after your previous lucrative job was off-shored or given to an illegal alien for a fraction of what you were paid, as it is clear that you are now a proud participant in our dynamic service sector whose slave labor now produces 80% of our GDP. By the way, you know that seemingly real unemployment line you are standing in right now due to off-shoring and outsourcing by Illuminist transnational conglomerates, well, that is just another phantasm. So stop whining, pop another valium to drive away your thoughts of mental recession, and plug yourself into the electrodes of your Goldilocks Matrix pod. Don't worry, and be happy that people like Mr. Gramm are in charge of your financial well-being and security. Oh, and incidentally, on that note, may we strongly suggest that you don't take any Prozac, since you might become suicidal.......
......Well, the meltdown continues. Men of "Chaos," better quickly get those two dark liquidity bourses, Project Turquoise and Baikal, up and running while you can still get out of the markets behind everyone's backs -while we still have markets, that is. The Dow on Friday dropped below 11,000 before closing at 11,100.54, the lowest close since August 14, 2006, some 23 months ago. On August 14, 2006, spot gold closed at 626.60, while this Friday spot gold closed at 958.85. Dow: Zippo - Gold: +53% - GET THE PICTURE?!......
......One month gold lease rates and one, two and three month silver lease rates are now all negative, which means they will pay you to lease both their gold and silver short term. So much for earning a return on non-income producing assets, which is the usual excuse given for leasing. The leasing of precious metals is really all about gold and silver suppression, and little else. The longer term rates are ludicrously low as well. But of course we have free markets. Yep, just keep pumping money into the ETF's so the bullion banks can lease your gold and silver from the ETF's against you whenever the PPT demands it, AND GET PAID FOR DOING IT!!!......
full story: http://www.theinternationalforecast...ntal_Depression
....ob alles so ist :confused:rolleyes jedenfalls spannend zu lesen und ins :gruebel kommt man wohl so oder so :schwitzkommt mir auch alles so bekannt vor :rolleyes
...und ein ketzerischer Gedanke - Gramm bei der UBS, ob er die "so gut" beraten hat :rolleyes mal schaun wer/wie/was "gerettet" wird :o
Warum sterben die Bienen?
Honigbienen liefern nicht nur süßen Brot-Aufstrich, sie gelten als das drittwichtigste Haustier: denn ihre Hauptaufgabe ist das Bestäuben von Obst-, Gemüse- und Wildpflanzen. Ein Drittel der menschlichen Nahrung ist direkt oder indirekt von Honigbienen abhängig. Aber was passiert, wenn es keine Bienen mehr gibt? Seit Herbst 2006 verschwinden in den USA Millionen von Bienenvölkern. Über die Ursachen dieses geheimnisvollen Massensterbens rätseln Wissenschaftler weltweit. Großimker, die in Amerika mit Tausenden von Bienenvölkern quer durch das Land ziehen, um Obst und Gemüsepflanzen zu bestäuben, erleben schon jetzt starke Einbußen.
Quarks & Co begibt sich auf die Spur dieses unheimlichen Phänomens und begleitet einen amerikanischen Bieneninspektor bei der Suche nach den Ursachen. Warum sterben die Bienen? Wie sieht die Situation in Deutschland aus? Welche Folgen hat das Verschwinden der Honigbienen für den Menschen? Gibt es überhaupt Alternativen zur Honigbiene, andere Insekten, die Blüten ebenso gut bestäuben wie das Vorbild?
Redaktion: Claudia Heiss
.....:schwitzfinde diese Sendung im WDR nicht (mehr) :confused war mal
Fannie, Freddie say they have plenty :eek of capital
Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:11pm EDT
By Mark Felsenthal and Alister Bull
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said on Friday that their finances were sufficiently sound to withstand the housing crisis as government officials scrambled to restore confidence in the country's two largest mortgage finance companies.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson indicated that a bailout of Fannie and Freddie was unlikely despite financial market concerns that the agencies, which finance nearly half of U.S. homes, may have trouble raising enough money to keep buying mortgages......
full story: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS...lBrandChannel=0
phideaux I have this chart on my office wall. There's no way the mortgage and credit mess can be cleaned up before 2012.
Rescue Debate: Paulson Insists
Fannie, Freddie Holders Lose
By DEBORAH SOLOMON, JAMES R. HAGERTY and SERENA NG
July 12, 2008; Page A1
As the crisis worsens for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is insisting that any potential government rescue plan not benefit the companies' shareholders, according to people familiar with the matter.
The two stockholder-owned, government-sponsored companies, whose operations are vital to the functioning of the U.S. housing market, faced a severe crisis of confidence after a week in which their stocks each lost nearly half their value. On Friday, Freddie Mac finished the day at $7.75 a share, and Fannie Mae at $10.25.
The discussions at Treasury highlight the dilemma created by the financial crisis gripping the U.S: Some institutions are considered too big to fail, but propping them up could erode the market's incentive to properly judge risk by offering investors a false sense of security.....
............If a rescue becomes necessary, Mr. Paulson does not want to help the shareholders because of the "moral hazard" it would create :eek:rolleyes -- desensitizing investors to risk because they believe the government will bail them out. It's a similar position he took during the government-orchestrated rescue of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co....
full story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121...p_us_whats_news
"moral hazard" :eek
Benzinpreise in den USA: Nie wieder so mobil wie früher?
70 Cent pro Liter Kraftstoff - davon können deutsche Autofahrer nur träumen. Für Amerikaner jedoch sind das Horror-Preise, die mächtig aufs Gemüt der Nation drücken.
photo Posted by honey
SEC opens probe to prevent spread of false info
Sunday July 13, 3:22 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
SEC opens probe to prevent spread of false information that manipulates stocks
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission said Sunday it is immediately opening a probe to prevent the spread of false information used to manipulate securities prices.SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said the investigation is aimed at "ensuring that investors continue :rolleyes to get reliable, accurate information about public companies in the marketplace."
The probe comes amid a new bout of turmoil that has gripped investors. Questions :rolleyes have been swirling about the financial health of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Earlier this year, a run on Bear Stearns pushed the investment bank to the brink of bankruptcy and into a takeover by JPMorgan Chase. Bear officials blamed market rumors for the run....
......The probe is separate from SEC's investigations, already under way, into alleged intentional manipulation of securities prices through "rumor-mongering and abusive short selling," the agency said in a statement.
full story: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080713/sec_probe.html
ohh i feel so much better now that the sec is on the job. whew i was really gettin worried i was. wj
Alles wird gut :ironie
updated 6:42 a.m. EDT, Sun July 13, 2008
Back in business: IndyMac reopens Monday
(CNN) -- IndyMac Bank, closed Friday by federal regulators, will reopen Monday with a new charter and a new name -- IndyMac Federal Bank.
Analysts fear thousands of IndyMac customers could lose as much as $500 million.
Customers who found locked doors and armed guards Friday afternoon could use ATM cards over the weekend to get to their money, but an estimated 5 percent of the $19 billion deposited in the bank was not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
Indymac's failure, which the FDIC chairman said could add up to be the most expensive U.S. bank failure ever, came as the FDIC's list of "problem" institutions is on the rise.
The FDIC disclosed last month that it was closely watching 90 financial institutions on its "problem list," up from 76 in the first quarter of 2008. The total assets of "problem" institutions rose from $22.2 billion to $26.3 billion, the FDIC said.....
full story: http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/07/13/indymac/index.html
What if the FDIC fails?
Posted by: Christopher S. Penn in: Money
Here’s a scary thought. According to the Wall Street Journal and CNN, the failure of IndyMac, the second largest federally insured financial institution ever to fail, will cost FDIC approximately 10% of its insurance fund.
FDIC is the backstop, the guarantee to depositors at banks that there will not be a repeat of the Great Depression, when bank runs wiped out banks and depositors alike.
Here’s the unthinkable. IndyMac isn’t going to be the last of the major financial institutions to fail. (Fannie and Freddie, anyone?) There are a LOT of them on shaky ground. Bear Stearns, IndyMac so far - Lehman isn’t looking so good lately, and Bank of America just assumed control of the festering carcass of Countrywide.
How many failures of depositor-funded institutions can the FDIC handle before it’s in serious trouble?
I advised on my work blog that as long as your money is FDIC insured, you don’t have anything to worry about.
I’m not so sure of that now.
Keep an eye on the amount of damage the FDIC takes per bank loss. Keep a tally.
Right now, the FDIC is out somewhere between $4 billion and $8 billion due to IndyMac. This is out of its insurance fund of $53 billion.
If the FDIC’s insurance fund drops below $10 billion, it would probably be a really good idea to start looking at someplace to store your money other than in a financial institution of the United States of America. One big bank or several medium banks could wipe that insurance fund out at the $10 billion mark, and then it’s time to get your cash out of the bank, because there’s no safety net and a single run means if you get to the bank later than its other customers, no money for you.
Today is not the day to hit the big red panic button. Not yet. But don’t lose sight of it, and have a plan B ready to go.
Other blogs have more coverage.
By Clive Crook
Published: July 13 2008 18:37 | Last updated: July 13 2008 18:37
US taxpayers are about to find out what their long-standing and (strictly speaking) non-existent guarantee of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will cost them. One way to think of it is this: take the US national debt of roughly $9,000bn and add $5,000bn. Not bad for an obligation still officially denied....
full story: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4794e4e-...?nclick_check=1
> Posted by ment17 @ 1:48 am on July 14, 2008 So here we are at last: A nation deep in debt is going to save mortgage lenders who are deep in debt and the bank that will bankroll all this has no more reserves. There is lots an lots of insane economic news this weekend that clearly shows that few people understand any more the fundamentals of banking, the facts about inflation and who causes it and the dangers of modern finances that is totally tilted towards passing as much money as possible to lenders while destroying the savings of people who wish to save money.
Mortgage Socialism Turns Owners Into Serfs
July 13, 2008
Elaine Meinel Supkis
The numbers coming out of the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mess are massive: $6 trillion in lending that is now a snarled mess. Everyone is trying to understand what went wrong. But always, they leave out all the important information: Japan's free Funny Money™ lending at near zero interest, Greenspan's 1% interest rate holiday, the US trade deficit and government overspending. 'There is blood in the street' Cramer throws in the towel and yells, 'SELL!' A good sign. Note that this 'rescue' of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac is, like the Bear Stearns 'rescue'---on a weekend when no one can do squat about it until tomorrow. And tomorrow is another day! Stocks will go up because everyone expects Uncle Sam to shower them with money we don't have but will create out of thin air! GAH. Dummies. Idiots. FOOLS.
Paulson Seeks Authority to Shore Up Fannie, Freddie
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson swung the weight of the federal government behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the beleaguered companies that buy or finance almost half of the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages. Paulson, speaking on the steps of the Treasury facing the White House, asked Congress for authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to the companies, aiming to stem a collapse in confidence. The Federal Reserve separately authorized the firms to borrow directly from the central bank.One half of $12 trillion is $6 trillion. Yikes. And half of this $6 trillion is guarantees on loans made by others then passed off to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. $6 trillion is the amount of Federal overspending we amassed since 1990. If the Federal government becomes totally responsible for the losses in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's messes, this could possibly up to $1.5 to $3 trillion. Which takes us from $9.5 trillion in public red ink today to well over $12 trillion in one fell swoop.
So here we are at last: A nation deep in debt is going to save mortgage lenders who are deep in debt and the bank that will bankroll all this has no more reserves. There is lots an lots of insane economic news this weekend that clearly shows that few people understand any more the fundamentals of banking, the facts about inflation and who causes it and the dangers of modern finances that is totally tilted towards passing as much money as possible to lenders while destroying the savings of people who wish to save money. Time for a swift visit to the open gushing wishing well that is pouring infinite lending into international financial systems: Japan.
Tokyo banks rise as U.S. rescues mortgage firms
MarketWatch) -- Japanese shares advanced Monday, with financials such as Mizuho Financial Group climbing after the U.S. announced rescue measures for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Nikkei 225 Average rose 0.3% to 13,074.27, while the broader Topix index climbed 0.5% to 1,292.33, after both benchmarks opened lower.Whenever it looks like the US is going to spend money like there is no tomorrow, Japan jumps for joy. The ultimate bankers of all this mess are in Tokyo and Beijing. Both have giant trade surpluses with the US. These surpluses are totally unsustainable. Both work to keep it going despite this. Both have a trillion+ in US bondage dollars as well as each holding more than a trillion FOREX dollars. When Japan is happy, we know we are doing something wrong.
Bank of Japan expected to hold line on rates again
MarketWatch) -- Despite a major change in economic conditions over the past 90 days, the Bank of Japan's monetary-policy committee is expected Tuesday to hold its key interest rate at 0.5%, lowest among the Group of Eight industrialized nations. Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa and committee members will assess data showing soaring crude-oil prices and mayhem in the world's financial markets are damping growth in the world's second-largest economy.'So what if there is inflation! We don't care!' yells the Japanese Samurai banker. Of course, there was this silly G8 meeting in Japan just the other day! Did the others scream at Japan, 'Dummy, you can't lend at near zero rates! You are flooding the world with Funny Money™! Stop it!'
Instead, quietly, they all agreed this was a great idea. Ignore inflation! Then, they all appeared in the public to attack the Arab oil nations and blamed them for inflation. No one mentioned stopping the stupid boycott of Iran, either. Today, I bought gas. It was $4.23 a gallon. Things are evolving very fast, here. I still see lots of fancy SUVs parked in front of trailers and cheap houses. But they are not buzzing about merrily like last year, even. Things are collapsing rapidly now. Let's go the the other top G8 nation that is over $10 trillion in government debt, too. England had the identical stupid housing boom which featured the same 'Let's run up debts until they equal the new value of our homes!' mania. Housing became very expensive in England. Now, it is becoming worthless, fast. So, the English have an old solution!
Credit crunch: Emergency scheme to help cash-strapped homeowners
Homeowners struggling to meet their mortgage payments would be able to sell their homes to the local authority and rent them back as tenants under radical proposals being considered by the government to prevent the misery of repossession. Emergency measures to allow families to keep a roof over their heads are being drawn up as the scale of repossessions proceedings becomes increasingly apparent. In Newcastle upon Tyne alone, the newly nationalised Northern Rock is monopolising at least one day a week in the county court to pursue defaulting borrowers.HAHAHA. The State buys everything up! Then, you get to live there and pay 'rent'. And this is the end of the 'ownership society'. In England and the US, the government holds all the mortgages. The government holds all the value of all the houses in the same place they hold all the taxes and all the governments are going bankrupt because they have no reserves, now money and no hope of ever paying off the huge debts they are rapidly accumulating due to running deep in the red! MY GOD! Isn't this kind of stupid?.........
White House: Bush to lift offshore drilling ban
Congress must still lift legislative ban before offshore drilling can start
updated 11:19 a.m. ET July 14, 2008
WASHINGTON - In another push to deal with soaring gas prices, President Bush on Monday will lift an executive ban on offshore drilling that has stood since his father was president. But the move, by itself, will do nothing unless Congress acts as well.....
DemoTex (1000+ posts) Mon Jul-14-08 10:40 AM
Response to Original message 16. Another one-finger salute from the biggest polluter in the world.
The most hated man in the world shows his love of himself.
Chinese Government is Top Foreign Holder of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Bonds :eek
$376 Billion in Chinese Agency Bond Holdings Subject to Taxpayer Bailout Proposals According to FreedomWorks Analysts
Last update: 11:08 a.m. EDT July 11, 2008
WASHINGTON, Jul 11, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- As politicians call for taxpayer bailouts and a government takeover of troubled mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, FreedomWorks would like to point out that a bailout is a transfer of possibly hundreds of billions of U.S. tax dollars to sophisticated investors and governments overseas.
The top five foreign holders of Freddie and Fannie long-term debt are China, Japan, the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and Belgium. In total foreign investors hold over $1.3 trillion in these agency bonds, according to the U.S. Treasury's most recent "Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities.".....
full story: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...72%7D&dist=hppr
:gruebel irgendwie gibt es ein verändertes Bild :rolleyes "moral hazard" :confused:rolleyes
Monday, July 14, 2008
Fannie Plan a `Disaster' to Rogers; Goldman Says Sell (Update3)
Fannie Plan a `Disaster' to Rogers; Goldman Says Sell (Update3)
By Carol Massar and Eric Martin
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury Department's plan to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is an ``unmitigated disaster'' and the largest U.S. mortgage lenders are ``basically insolvent,'' according to investor Jim Rogers.
Taxpayers will be saddled with debt if Congress approves U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's request for the authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Rogers is betting that Fannie Mae shares will keep tumbling.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Daniel Zimmerman said the mortgage finance companies' shares may fall another 35 percent and lowered his share-price estimate for Fannie Mae to $7 from $18 and for Freddie Mac to $5 from $17. Freddie Mac fell 18 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $7.57 at 11:16 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange trading, while Fannie Mae rose 13 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $10.38.
posted by concerned heart at 8:31 AM
Posted On: Monday, July 14, 2008, 4:26:00 AM EST
FDIC Says No Problem, But For How Long?
Author: Jim Sinclair
The first comment by the FDIC was that the only funds not insured amounted to one billion dollars, or 5% of the deposits guaranteed. If that was true then the FDIC would have put about 1/3 of its capital in play.
The following article suggests the FDIC put only 10% of its capital into play.
The FDIC says there is no problem because they can raise premiums paid by banks. Sure, but how long would it take to replace their capital if 2 or more significant banks were to fail? That replacement would likely take a decade.
All of these cosmetic insurance schemes on deposits and securities will fail to pay in cash. You will get paid in short term, renewable (but not at your decision), government notes.
Now do you see why removing as many financial agents between you and yours is so important?
Now do you see why taking paper certificates or becoming a book entry at the transfer agent is no waste of your time?
If you have not protected your share investments do it tomorrow and as a byproduct dump the shorts.
I see a war (US and Iran) in 15 days. Load it guys...load how much every you can on dips.
I see this through my EW counts and no astrological prediction. Just be careful. If my source is right then they will just do one attack...just one strike...and thats it for IRAN.... Then many countries will come in middle and will stop the war...
PS- If it does not happen in 15 days...then maybe later on..
One more PS- It can happen on 18th as well. If not 18th then 12~15 days later...
.....also das ist ausschliesslich zur späteren "Orientierung" :rolleyes;) kingofold ist ansonsten ein überzeugter EWler für die PMs und äussert sich eigentlich kaum politisch :cool
....hier noch seine Chart-Erklärung: (hmmm :confused:rolleyes)
White House: Bush to lift offshore drilling ban
... ist nicht geplant, auch in den Naturschutzgebieten
von Alaska zu fördern ?
Da liegt dann wohl kaum eine iranische Truppe im Wege,
denen ist es dort einfach zu kalt !
p.s. aus einem US- thread:
I don't care what oil costs. I am for protecting Alaskan
protected lands. Even if gas is $20 per gallon!
Das ist ein statement, bravo !
updated 9 minutes ago
Bush lifts executive ban on offshore oil drilling :mad
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Bush lifted an executive order banning offshore oil drilling on Monday and urged Congress to follow suit.
If President Bush can persuade Congress, more oil rigs like this one off Canada could appear off U.S. shores.
Citing the high prices Americans are paying at the pump, Bush said from the White House Rose Garden that allowing offshore oil drilling is "one of the most important steps we can take" to reduce that burden.
However, the move is largely symbolic as there is also a federal law banning offshore drilling.
"This means that the only thing standing between the American people and these vast oil reserves is action from the U.S. Congress," Bush said. Watch Bush announce lifting of ban »
Bush has been pushing Congress to repeal the law passed in 1981.
"There is no excuse for delay," the president said in a Rose Garden statement last month. iReport.com: Is drilling the answer?
full story: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITIC...hore/index.html
die verschiedenen Areale ---> http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITIC...ml#cnnSTCOther1
@Silverbay - Alaska und vor den Küsten zB Floridas, da sind eben nicht alle begeistert :rolleyes
Robert Buscemi, center, waited six hours in Pasadena, California, on Monday to enter IndyMac Bank, which was seized by the U.S. government last week. (Danny Moloshok/Reuters)
Confidence in U.S. banking sector weakens
By Louise Story
Published: July 15, 2008
In the Los Angeles area, lines snaked around IndyMac Bancorp branches for blocks, as customers made withdrawals from the bank, which failed last week. In Cleveland, National City Corporation denied a rumor that its customers were also demanding their money.
In Washington, U.S. regulators tried to broadcast the message that plummeting stock prices should not cause consumers to panic about the safety of their savings. And on Wall Street, analysts began circulating lists of regional and local banks that might be next to fall.
Investors continued to beat down bank stocks, fearing that the government's resolve to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant companies at the center of the nation's mortgage market, would not hold back the rising tide of bad loans unleashed by the weakening housing market and faltering economy. Financial stocks, a Merrill Lynch analyst wrote bluntly, are "value traps."
Stocks on Standard & Poor's 500 Bank Index fell nearly 10 percent, and regional banks were particularly hard hit, declining nearly 11 percent. Several regional banks lost nearly a third of their value, as investors bet that these smaller banks might be the ones the government would let fail....
.....But the rally quickly faded as Wall Street braced itself for its most influential banks like Citigroup to report quarterly earnings over the next two weeks. Shares of M&T Bank, which kicked off the string of earnings releases, were down 12 percent after it reported a second-quarter profit of $1.44 a share, down 25 percent from a year ago. Shares in the National City Corporation were halted after they fell 29 percent, to $3.15. In a statement, the bank reported no unusual customer activity and said that it had more than $12 billion in excess short-term liquidity.
full story: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07...ness/15bank.php
.....wie ein Krebsgeschwür - bald weltweit :mad
Banks hit by fallout from the crisis at IndyMac
Al Seib / Los Angeles Times
Customers wait outside of the IndyMac headquarters in Pasadena for the bank to open. The FDIC took over ailing IndyMac bank on Friday.
As thousands of customers waited hours in the heat Monday to withdraw deposits from failed IndyMac Bank, investors dumped the stocks of many mortgage lenders, precipitating the steepest one-day decline in banking shares since 1989.
Southern California fixtures Downey Financial Corp. and FirstFed Financial Corp., specialists in the nontraditional mortgages that fueled the housing boom, were among the hardest hit, with their stock prices down 24% and 19% respectively. Shares of Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest savings and loan, fell nearly 35%.
full story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-...,0,431088.story
....aus Merriman's Finanzbericht (...hmmmm :schwitzso oder so :confused)
Kurzfristige geokosmische Signaturen
Wir befinden uns am Ende dieses riesigen Zeitbandes geokosmischer Signaturen, welches für die Zeit vom 12. Juni bis 14. Juli gilt. Der Mittelwert vom 28. Juni zeigte keine Korrelation zu wesentlichen Umkehrbewegungen an der Aktienbörse. Es gibt zwar immer noch eine Möglichkeit, im Zusammenhang mit einer Umkehr zum Ende der Periode, denn es konstellieren sich drei Level 1-(stärkste Korrelation zu Umkehrbewegungen) zwischen 9. – 14. Juli. Der 11. Juli befindet sich in der Mitte dieses Zeitbandes, und wie bereits oben festgestellt, fielen die meisten Aktienbörsen der Welt an diesem Freitag von letzter Woche, dem 11. Juli, während Rohöl, Edelmetalle und Fremdwährungen (im Vergleich zum Dollar) stiegen.
Es gibt jedoch ein weiteres geokosmisches Muster, dessen Entfaltung nun begonnen hat und welches von Bedeutung ist. Dies wird im Abo-Bericht von dieser Woche zur japanischen Börse folgendermassen beschrieben: „Dies ist der Transit des Mars, welcher nun zwischen der Konjunktion mit Saturn (10. Juli) und der Opposition zum Uranus (6. August) die bevorstehende Saturn/Uranus-Opposition auslöst. Warum ist dies wichtig? Weil die Saturn/Uranus-Opposition die stärkste langfristige, geokosmische Signatur ist, die uns in der nächsten Zeit bevorsteht (4. November 2008 – 26. Juli 2010). Eine „Auslösung" dieser langfristigen Planetensignatur gibt eine Vorschau dessen, was für die Periode der Opposition zu erwarten ist. In den ersten sechs Monaten dieses Jahres hat jeder Transit von Sonne, Venus oder Mars zur Saturn/Uranus-Opposition neue Tiefs für das Jahr 2008 erzeugt (dies bei den verschiedensten Weltbörsenindices). Der gegenwärtige Mars-Transit tut dasselbe, und er ist gegenwärtig bloss einige Tage alt. Dies impliziert, dass der Nikkei (ebenso wie ander Weltindices) einen ernsthaften Ausverkauf erleben könnte, dies im Zusammenhang mit zunehmenden Ängsten hinsichtlich der Zukunft der Weltwirtschaft und des weltweiten Bankensystems. So befinden wir uns zwischen zwei miteinander im Konflikt stehenden Signalen: Die Zyklen sagen, dass ein Primärzyklentief nun zu erwarten ist, dem eine starke 2 – 5 – Wochen oder grössere Rallye folgt. Einige geokosmische Signaturen unterstützen diese Sichtweise, falls am Dienstag ein Tief gebildet wird. Mit der Mars-Auslösung der Saturn/Uranus-Opposition gibt es jedoch gleichzeitig die Möglichkeit einer weiteren Abwärtsbewegung bis Anfang August, und vielleicht sogar länger :rolleyes wenn die Venus und die Sonne in den folgenden Monaten dasselbe tun (13. – 23. August und 3. – 12. September). Beide Perioden könnten dreistellige Tagesabschläge mit sich bringen."
Fortis gerät ins Visier der Finanzaufsicht AFM - Knackpunkt Kapitalerhöhung
AMSTERDAM (AWP International) - Der Finanzkonzern Fortis ist mit seiner Kapitalerhöhung ins Visier der niederländischen Finanzaufsicht geraten. Die Aufsichtsbehörde AFM schaue sich die Situation bei dem Unternehmen an, sagte AFM-Chef Hans Hoogervorst am Dienstag dem Amsterdamer Nachrichtenradio BNR. Bisher handele es sich aber nur um eine Voruntersuchung, fügte eine Sprecherin der Behörde auf Nachfrage hinzu. Noch sei nicht entschieden, ob ein offizielles Ermittlungsverfahren eingeleitet werde.
"Es ist aber nicht so, dass wir es mit sehr ernsthaften Verdachtsmomenten in einer sehr tiefen Untersuchung zu tun hätten", sagte Hoogervorst. Eine Fortis-Sprecherin erklärte, dem Unternehmen sei bisher nichts von einem formellen Untersuchungsverfahren bekannt. Die Aktionärsvereinigung VEB hatte die Kommunikationspolitik des Unternehmens scharf kritisiert und die AFM zu einer Untersuchung aufgefordert. Die Behörde habe ihre Prüfung aber bereits vor der VEB-Forderung begonnen, sagte Behördenchef Hoogervorst.
Fortis hatte am 26. Juni angekündigt, sich über eine Kapitalerhöhung und Anteilsverkäufe acht Milliarden Euro an frischem Kapital beschaffen zu wollen. Der Aktienkurs verlor seitdem rund ein Drittel seines Wertes. Fortis-Chef Jean-Paul Votron hatte in der Folge am vergangenen Freitag seinen Hut genommen./fj/FX/das/zb
10'945.68 :schwitz ...ist ja längstens überholt :rolleyes hier noch life :( 10,962.54 :rolleyes
Fannie/Freddie bailout means dollar collapse
from ft.com: "They socialise their risks and privatise their profits."
This is the crux of the problem. Taxpayers are being used to subsidize what should be a free market.
...macht mal 100 für jeden bis jetzt :schwitz :rolleyes:mad
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