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lunar 10.10.2008 18:59

1 Anhang/Anhänge
Posted by fabric

lunar 10.10.2008 20:19

Tentative Bookings On The Failboat: Morgan Stanley

Posted by alyx under Uncategorized
No Comments


Morgan Stanley may be getting like $9 billion from Mitsubishi UFJ (think Japanese bank, not car dealer, if it was the latter, GM and Ford would be sniffing around) today, and guess what? They need it. Down about 30% in premarket, and down 27% yesterday, they are now on the same slippery slope to fail that we saw out of Bear and Lehman and WaMu and Wachovia and… you get the idea.

WSJ sez: Hedge-fund clients have pulled about one-third of their money from the firm in recent weeks. The cost of protecting against a Morgan Stanley default has surged. The firm can’t issue new debt.

Meanwhile, Moodys talks about cutting the debt ratings, and Dick Bove says MS was counterparty to a lot of Lehman Brothers swaps… it is not looking good at the Morgan ranch. Everyone please cross your fingers that Mitsubishi UFJ does not back out.

lunar 10.10.2008 22:41

2 Anhang/Anhänge
Stocks end wild session mixed after 8-day slide

Friday October 10, 4:28 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Wall Street ends mixed after 8 days of massive losses; Dow swings over 1,000 pts

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street capped its worst week ever with a wild session Friday that left stocks with a widely mixed finish. Late-day buying helped curb steep losses and gave the market its best showing of the week as investors snapped up bargains among stocks devastated by seven days of massive losses.----
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081010/wall_street.html

Silverbay 10.10.2008 23:26

best
 
Merci Lunar für Deine vorbildliche Arbeit !

:)

lunar 11.10.2008 08:45

Silverbay danke :)
....freut mich, dass mein "Tagebuch" Anklang findet - es ist zwar etwas umfangreicher geworden als geplant, ursprünglich wollte ich nur so stichwortartig festhalten was in diesen turbulenten Zeiten so abläuft :rolleyes
aber wie so oft - unsere Vorstellungen sind bescheiden verglichen mit dem was auf sich auf der Bühne der Korruptionen und Betrügereien der elitären Politik-/FinanzMafia abspielt :mad

lunar 11.10.2008 08:47

:verbeug
Zitat:
Zitat von Hoka

Uncle Harry Flash Bulletin 10/10/ 08. Double-10 is lucky.

Odds now favour a world wide Stock Exchange and Banking
"holiday" starting Sunday Oct 11, 2008.
As friend, analyst Alf Field says: “It seems obvious the financial crisis is
global--yet countries are operating independently on a reactive & ad hoc
basis. Decisions are being made in an environment of extremely volatile
change which is not conducive to good or sound decision making. It
requires a unified approach that can only be worked out over a period
during which calm conditions prevail. To achieve such an environment, it
may be necessary to close the world stock exchanges & banking systems
while these decisions are discussed and put in place.”
We agree. G7 leaders are meeting in Washington on Saturday. Our
hunch is they’ll declare a forced bank & stock mkt “holiday” of
undetermined length starting Sat or Sun or Monday.
Our advice: 1. Get a lot of cash from your local bank to keep at home
&/or your office or lawyer office, to tide U over the “holiday.” If U
already did that, do it again. 2. Increase your gold positions, in bullion &
in the few gold shares that are showing strong relative strength (eg, AEM,
G-T, K-T, RGLD). The G7 may issue a rescue package, which might
trigger a strong stock mkt rally. But all packages have failed so far, after
2 days. This is not a time to be under-invested in gold. Better to err on the
side of over-investment rather than under.
All mkts are crashing. Except gold. Our depression prediction is
happening in quick-time. Gold will benefit in deflation as well as
inflation, even if in relative terms.
3. If U are not also in non-US$ 2-yr govt bonds, do so today, 10/10,
before a possible bank holiday shuts the brokers down.
Good luck to us all & God bless.
Uncle Harry & Paul

kiwi_envoy :danke




lunar 11.10.2008 08:49

10 October 2008

SP Long Term Charts and the Reckless Adventurism of the Greenspan Federal Reserve


This chart shows the extreme effects of the Greenspan Federal Reserve on the stock market as a representation of its profound impact on the US economy, if not that of the world. Reckless adventurism may be too kind a description.

Two asset bubbles, back to back, were caused by the irresponsible expansion of credit and the lack of regulatory oversight of the banking system. This fostered malinvestment and a terrific destruction and reallocation of wealth.

This is what happens when the Fed takes its eye off the growth of money supply and credit, and instead focuses on exotic metrics and statistical rubbish, to the cacaphony and flourishes of pseudo-scientific oratory that confounds common sense.

There will be significant human dislocation and misery to come as the economy readjusts to more sustainable growth patterns and capital allocation.





Near term support levels are more obvious when looking at this chart below.

What we have are two neatly nested Head and Shoulders tops, at least.




Posted by Jesse at 9:33 PM :verbeug

lunar 11.10.2008 08:59

Margin Call, Gentlemen?


This is something going around the trading desks. Suddenly tightening margin credit is a precipitant to artificially steep market declines as those students of the Crash of 1929 will well remember. That is something one does on the upside of a potential asset bubble, not in the decline.

If this is true, then there is an obvious need for the Fed to step in and provide credit relief even if on high rates, moreso than propping up a few banks by buying their worthless assets at above market prices.

Forced margin selling because of arbitrary private bank policies is going to create a major problem in the financial markets, leading to a greater concentration of wealth, and the ultimate descent into a loss of freedoms.


The selling has reached historic proportions. There literally is a "run on the market," as investors worldwide are dumping stocks.

It seems that the major catalyst for this selling is the fact that the newest large banks primarily :bad J. P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs :bad and possibly Morgan Stanley as well -- have issued massive margin calls to hedge funds and other professional traders who use these banks as prime brokers.

These calls were not issued because of market losses, but more because the banks arbitrarily decided that they wanted their customers to use less leverage. Margin rates as low as 15% for broker dealers were raised to 35%; hedge funds who had been used to operating on high leverage were told that they had to bring accounts up to a much larger percentage of equity.

In this illiquid environment, where all manor of exotic securities literally have no bids, the only place to raise the cash to meet margin calls was to sell stock. That is what really set this market over the edge -- as the first notice of these calls were issued on October 2nd and 3rd.

There was something of a grace period to meet the calls, but funds realized they weren't going to be able to meet them other than by selling stock. There are rumors that the most massive of the calls are due Monday (October 13th). If so, this market could continue to decline through then.
Posted by Jesse at 1:01 PM :verbeug

.....wann endlich wird diesen machthungrigen GS & Co. endlich das Handwerk gelegt :mad

lunar 11.10.2008 11:23

Fri 10 Oct 2008

Ur Banks. Give Us Dem.

Posted by nin_man under all ur bankz , hank paulson
[2] Comments



Why, if I’m not mistaken, this is the first recycled picture on LOLFed. Don’t blame me (even though I believe I made the first one as well), blame Hammerin’ Hank for spending all his time trying to leave the economy in utter ruin and not posing for seductive photographs that would make my job a lot easier. C’mon, twenty minutes at your local Glamour Shots. Ten pictures of you looking like you’ve just discovered a dead body would float this site for WEEKS. No? Well screw you, cueball, I’ll just keep re-using the same six pictures of you, forever.

Short story, Hank will be using some of his newfound powers to purchase stock in banks. Long story, Hank will be using some of his newfound powers to purchase stock in banks. This is the first time such measures have been taken since the Great Depression (not so great, akshully), which should work wonders in silencing those naysaying 60% of Americans who say we’re heading into another one.

Here’s a tip for you, Hank: LEHMQ might look like a fantastic deal, but I have inside sources that tell me that bank isn’t doing very well. You didn’t hear that from me, if anyone asks.

lunar 11.10.2008 11:26

Fri 10 Oct 2008

Paulson To Buy Up Bank Stocks Like They’re Going Out Of Style (Dunecat Edition)

Posted by alyx under bailout , hank paulson
[3] Comments



If you’re American and you’re reading this, you now own bank stocks!

Long rumored and finally spelled out: Hammerin’ Hank Paulson is going to go ahead and use part of that $700 billion we gave him to do some direct investments in banks (see Jason’s post below).

Know what? This actually may increase liquidity. Thanks to capital ratios, a $10 billion dollar investment in banks can be used to create $100 billion dollars in credit. Best case scenario - the banks get the capital injection, lend it out, credit markets unfreeze, bank shares go up, and Treasury actually makes a few bucks on its investment. Worst case? Some or all of the following: banks choose to sit on the cash or lend it out incompetently, banks go bk after all, credit markets stay frozen, Treasury loses its investment.

lunar 11.10.2008 20:26

October 11, 2008

Cytek (usagold.com 11October2008; 11:50)
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=dYe6dMgeliU

It’s on the main page but for how long who knows. http://finance.yahoo.com

Lou Dobbs asked for the public to vote on http://loudobbs.tv.cnn.com/ if they feel the bill passing helped or hurt the stock market more… scrool down and vote. And while your at it send Lou an email.

Do you believe the market would have gone down a lot more without the bailout? so far…
Yes 18% 796
No 82% 3612

Go figure that’s easy Lou , you know better, the market has sold off for the last week ever since congress passed the bill.

I sure wouldn’t want to be a congress man or woman right now, what they voted on is public record and the history books will show that it’s ALL congresses fault for causing the worse sell of in the history of the stock market. Meanwhile Bernnanke and Paulson will look like the guys trying to save everything , actually caused everything.

We are up for a BEAR market rally probably next week and then the next leg down, it touched 7882 briefly but never hit 7750 what i believe is the next Fib number, but that’s close. I think once we get a BEAR market rally the next leg down will surpass 7750 and touch the next resistance in the upper 5000 range. Those that didn’t pull out on the next rally will be devistated. Retirements gone.

Cytek

lunar 12.10.2008 00:28

Roubini on Bloomberg yesterday

-> Posted by floridagold @ 16:25 pm on October 11, 2008 :verbeug
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.ht...p.kpIJs_zwY.asf

lunar 12.10.2008 11:18

KAMPF GEGEN FINANZKRISE

Staatsmänner proben den weltweiten Schulterschluss

Die Welt demonstriert Geschlossenheit - doch Experten kritisieren das als zu vage. Der G-7-Aktionsplan gegen die Finanzkrise reicht ihnen nicht. Bei einem Treffen europäischer Staaten soll nun Konkreteres beschlossen werden. Der britische Premier Brown spricht von der "Stunde der Wahrheit". mehr... [ Video | Forum ]



lunar 12.10.2008 11:20


WORLD FIX

lunar 12.10.2008 11:33

October 12, 2008
State to save HBOS and RBS

Government set to become biggest shareholder in top banks as Japanese weigh bid for Morgan Stanley

John Waples and Iain Dey

div#related-article-links p a, div#related-article-links p a:visited { color:#06c; } THE government will launch the biggest rescue of Britain’s high-street banks tomorrow when the UK’s four biggest institutions ask for a £35 billion financial lifeline.

The unprecedented move will make the government the biggest shareholder in at least two banks.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), which has seen its market value fall to below £12 billion, is to ask ministers to underwrite a £15 billion cash call.

Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), Britain’s biggest provider of mortgages, is seeking up to £10 billion.......

......Questions also persist about the collapse of the Icelandic institutions, and the knock-on effects of their demise. It has emerged that the FSA told the London-based capital-markets business of Kaupthing to move some of its £20m cash pile out of a bank account held with its Icelandic parent company “several months” before the bank collapsed last week. A senior source at Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Capital Markets, run by former KBC Peel Hunt boss Tim Cockcroft, said the cash had been moved into four or five UK bank accounts following concerns raised by the regulator.

The news suggests the regulator may have been flagging concerns about Iceland to business customers while local councils and consumers continued to deposit cash with the banks.

A handful of Treasury officials have grown concerned about the potential for conflicts of interest emerging between the advisers working on the bailout deal and the financial implications.

For example, Goldman Sachs (....mir ihren "Beziehungen" :mad die werden schon für sich sorgen :bad) which is advising Royal Bank of Scotland, also has large financial exposures to the bank.

There have been calls within the Treasury for an independent advisory boutique like Blackstone or Greenhill to be appointed to monitor conflicts of interest, but it is understood that these calls have gone unnoticed so far.


full story: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...icle4926316.ece

lunar 12.10.2008 11:39

Sat 11 Oct 2008

BREAKING NEWS: Rick Santelli Proves The Market Will Make You Lose All Your Hair

Posted by alyx under cnbc
1 Comment


Here’s a CNBC gem: Rick Santelli, while marauding about the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday, found somebody’s toupee where it had fallen off. Erin Burnett proceeded to point out its bad part line, thus ensuring that the Sad Trader who lost his hair truly is Sad.

Here is the full video. Thx Lolo for finding this one!

lunar 12.10.2008 11:46

Wall Street Bailouts Push 2009 Budget Deficit Estimates to a Record 12.5% of GDP

The new welfare queens, the Wall Street bankers, put all other non-military government programs to shame.

All holders of US dollars are going to be paying for this.

Taxation without representation is ... crony capitalism and dollar hegemony.

Cost of U.S. Crisis Action Grows, Along With Debt
By Matthew Benjamin

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The global financial crisis is turning into a bigger drain on the U.S. federal budget than experts estimated two weeks ago, ballooning the deficit toward $2 trillion......

Posted by Jesse at 9:23 AM :verbeug

lunar 12.10.2008 11:52

11 October 2008

LIBOR is in Backwardation and Significantly Divergent from Effective Fed Funds


LIBOR has ceased to function as a reliable benchmark suitable for commercial and residential loans in terms of US dollars......

........The LIBOR rates are now internationally recognized indices used for pricing many types of consumer and corporate loans, debt instruments and debt securities across the globe, and is the reference for many loans including the vast majority of Interest-Only Loans in The United States.

LIBOR rates are fixed every UK business day by the British Bankers' Association BBA.

The Fed Funds Target Rate, America's benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. Prime Rate are managed by America's central bank: the Federal Reserve.

The LIBOR rates, however, are fixed by a relatively small group of large private international banks themselves

The Bank of America
JP Morgan Chase
Citibank, NA
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
Barclays Bank plc
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank AG
HBOS
HSBC
Lloyds TSB Bank plc
Rabobank
Royal Bank of Canada
The Norinchukin Bank
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group
UBS AG
West LB AG.......

..........How can LIBOR be Inverted when the Effective Fed Funds Rate is steepening?

This is most likely a symptom of fear of risk of capital return in interbank lending. It may also be a sign that the current eurodollar short squeeze is expected to dissipate, as it will as the capital markets revert to the means and efficient operation.



One might also pointedly ask what the G7 will be doing to address the distortions being introduced into the European banking system by the US dollar and its shortages due to the precipitous deterioration of US dollar debt assets held by European banks, as the solution for this seems to be eluding the bureaucrats in Brussels.

As a hint, the US dollar, like LIBOR, is being used inappropriately and the basis for international trade must change to a more stable measure.

Posted by Jesse at 10:55 AM :verbeug

.....und noch vieles: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...dation-and.html

lunar 12.10.2008 11:58

Anti-Democratic Nature of US Capitalism is Being Exposed

By Noam Chomsky

Bretton Woods was the system of global financial management set up at the end of the second World War to ensure the interests of capital did not smother wider social concerns in post-war democracies. It was hated by the US neoliberals - the very people who created the banking crisis writes Noam Chomsky Continue

lunar 12.10.2008 16:08

1 Anhang/Anhänge
Columbus Day International Looting Spree Of US Taxpayers

lunar 12.10.2008 16:49

Cytek (usagold.com 12October2008; 7:46)
Paulson and Goldman Sachs “US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson gave a clear indication late on Friday that he would stand behind Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to prevent another collapse on the scale of Lehman Brothers.Both banks were hard hit by last week’s historic stock-market sell-off. Morgan Stanley’s stock dropped almost 60% last week, while Goldman’s fell 29%. ”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aP5mpMUORBWM
Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World’s Markets (Update 1)
By Steve Scherer

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world’s financial markets while they “rewrite the rules of international finance.”

“The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,” Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to the financial crisis “can’t just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.”

Cytek
:bad Hanky panky Paulson :bad is upset! He has warrants to purchase up to 500million in Goldman when he steps down as Treasury Secretary. It’s in his BEST interest to SAVE GS.

OK, the banks messed up, 2.5 Trillion has been lost in the markets in one week. Let’s just stop the tradiing and CHANGE all the RULES. And when they open back up, form a “ONE WORLD” bank that all currency’s trade on. Chip everyone, so they can monitor all of our transactions and TAX the hell out of overyone. FREE markets will become a thing of the past. They will try to control everything….

lunar 12.10.2008 17:02

Goldilox (usagold.com 12October2008; 7:32)
Throwing mud at the wall and hoping some sticks!
Cannot quote in deference to the author’s wishes, but check out the “Comment of the Day” for October 10.

(link)

October 10, 2008 posting ... BLACK FRIDAY !!! if the stock market (which has no real value anyway ... it is not a savings account folks) ... if the stock market continues to drop at the current rate it will be zero within 2 weeks ... it's all phony money anyway ... but i get a kick out of the people who extol Mr. B head of the phony money source the Federal Reserve (it is not federal and there is no reserve) ... i get a kick out of the smoooz noooz that claims he is somehow an intellectual ... this is what you get for placing a university professor and his theories in charge of your money supply (excuse me ...phony money supply) ... in my career teaching in universities i have seen hundreds of these schlocky guys sliding around the ivory tower hallways thinking they are next to god and ... SOOO ... O SO "intelligent" ... well now the proof is in the pudding ... the american economic "model" and the great Bush "bailout" have failed ... as rightly they should ... when you have idiots and greed coupled with a mindless university professor running the show ... creating trillions of more worthless dollars out of thin air to replace gaping holes in every corporation and and bank you get to what you see today ... of course this was the plan all along to take over the hard work of the american (and world-wide) public and reduce them to economic slaves (as i note repeatedly ... these techniques of using phony money with interest were developed in pre-biblical times and actually specifically outlawed in the old system of laws because the end result is the same EVERY TIME ... enslavement of the people and control by the phony bankers ... the money changers) ... add this to a worthless congress that gave away its mandate to issue real money and control the purse strings ... with a worthless justice department that sits idle as untold trillions of people's life savings have been stolen out of almost every major US corporation ... piled on a fractional reserve banking system with banks loaning to other banks who loan to other banks who then loan back to the original banks creating more phony money out of thin air ... clearly there has never been any "accounting" ... no one could possibly untangle the accounting nightmare created by these crooks ... so put this all in one giant heap and you get what you see right now ... worldwide economic chaos ... throwing more phony money at the problem and hoping some sticks like throwing mud at a wall is the current "solution" ... get ready to take care of yourselves by being your own source of food and water cause the USS TITANIC is sinking ... jim mccanney



lunar 12.10.2008 17:11

KnallGold (usagold.com 12October2008; 4:12)
IMF/G7 What a lame result of that conference,the only thing they said is “we’re saving our banking buddies at all costs,the money for that we steal from the public because the printing press did’n't work properly lately” , “to use all tools (but blind on the Goldeneye)” and then trotted out repeatedly that shallow “that only global solutions will work”.Well what can one expected from the monkey fund,and you know what that pompous dilettant (ex GS,Fannie,Enron!) WB Zoellick asked for?That we should not forget the poor!The usual secret word about gold sales?Yeah,support your Gold market with physical Gold (but you don’t have that much,right?) or let it free,the last thing we need is a frozen Gold valve now.

Clearly,the conference results are dangerously lacking any substance and will be seen as a big dissapointment.Looks like the defeated awaits execution.

Europe showed that on some levels national concepts are the way to go,one commentator admitted that if the EU would had to implement a “rescue plan”,it would have taken months if not years!

Competition among its nations,isn’t that how Europe got strong???Sure there are dissenting voices (part. France) by Germanys going forward fast with its own plan,but that doesen’t rule out joint cooperation on other issues-the principle of subsidiarity,in Switzerland we call if Föderalismus with the high authority of the cantons and communes to keep central powers in checks.

Germanys point seemed that they simply didn’t want to be the payer again.And their hesitations about nationalisations of banks comes from the IKB,Landesbanken and KFW debacle.On a fundamental point,the savings rate is much better than in the USA and that theres no housing bubble either,etc etc.,(I have heard coming up many dissenting points in discussions,that they think can’t been swept over again by the anglosaxions)-hence you can’t splatter again the ususal globalists one-size-fits-all solutions on us all.

Btw Germanys president also asked for a Bretton Woods 2.Adding 1+1,we urgently need a funtional financial system for a multipolar world.


Sam (usagold.com 12October2008; 5:03)
B.Woods II Knall…
For your thoughts. From the-privateer.com.

Seems the rest of the world needs to move along and do it’s own deal. It’s now time they do this, G7 is just a “show”.

The Coming Great Divide Across The Atlantic:
With the German government having decided to guarantee all the deposits and CDs presently in German
banks and other financial institutions, one European nation after another is being forced to follow suit or
see an outflow of their own nation’s depositors as they move their money into the German “guaranteed”
zone. Shortly, as all the rest of the world finds out about this new German move, outflows of money will
begin to take place.
If the powers that be in other nations want to keep deposits inside their own nations,
they will either have to put in place similar guarantees or institute currency controls to stop money
leaving their own monetary systems. For the US, an outflow of US Dollars from the monetary system
would be fatal. The US needs an ongoing annual inflow approaching the vast sum of more than $US 1
TRILLION to fund its twin deficits - the budget deficit and the trade/current account deficit.
The geo-monetary facts are that if the US, now in financial extremis, were to institute currency controls, it
would have voluntarily resigned from having the world’s reserve currency. But if the US wanted to avoid
such an action, it would have to raise, drastically, the official interests it offers so as to attract the inflows
of foreign funds it so urgently needs. The US would never dare raise interest rates in its present plight.

lunar 12.10.2008 17:38

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Recap - Week of 10/6/08

Monday - Thursday
11pm / 10c
Posted: 10/10/2008
Views: 77,319
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/i...week-of-10/6/08

http://www.comedycentral.com/

lunar 12.10.2008 17:43

Traders' worst fears realised at Lehmans auction

Hundreds of billions set to change hands as credit default swaps are reconciled

By Stephen Foley in New York
Saturday, 11 October 2008

Derivatives traders were yesterday nervously picking their way through the wreckage of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in what was the biggest test to date of the unregulated $60 trillion (£35.4 trillion) credit default swaps market.

Investors who had placed bets on Lehman's creditworthiness held an auction aimed at clarifying who owes what to whom after the investment bank went bust four weeks ago, and analysts believe that several hundreds of billions of dollars will change hands.

Credit default swaps are a kind of insurance, which investors used to protect themselves in the event that Lehman defaulted on its bonds. Unlike traditional insurance, however, any financial firm could write a credit default swap contract so banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and traditional fund managers are among those now being required to make investors whole.

The auction set a price for Lehman bonds of 8.625 cents on the dollar. Financial firms that sold credit default swaps, therefore, owe 91.375 cents on the dollar – more than Wall Street had been factoring in. That figure increased nerves about whether everyone in the chain will actually be able to pay the amount that they owe, something that will become clear over the coming days. Participants said the auction went smoothly and efficiently.

The insurance giant AIG was one of the biggest sellers of Lehman Brothers credit default swaps, and it faces big losses as a result. It had to be bailed out by the US government three days after the Lehman bankruptcy filing, and has so far been extended $123bn in loans from the US taxpayer. What investors and regulators fear most is a failure to pay by one link in the chain could cause a cascade of losses through the system....

full story: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ins-957953.html

lunar 12.10.2008 18:26

Everybody’s Business
Fear and Loathing in La Jolla

October 11, 2008


I lived with them on Montague StreetIn a basement down the stairs.

There was music in the cafes at night,

And revolution in the air.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn3iybtxNZwBob Dylan,

“Tangled Up in Blue”


.........In fact, they are among the angriest upper- and middle-class people I have ever seen. And the most frightened and worried. (In a way, they are now feeling the way ordinary workers have been feeling for years.)And why not? With the experiment of allowing a major investment bank, Lehman Brothers, to simply vanish, leaving huge holes in the portfolios of many other financial entities, Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, threw the financial system into chaos.

Yes, some people at Lehman undoubtedly did some bad things, but those kinds of people are found everywhere. Letting Lehman fail was almost incomprehensible. It took the federal government many decades, after the banking collapse leading to the Great Depression, to restore confidence in the financial system. Then, in one horribly misguided moment, Mr. Paulson, with the apparent agreement of Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, demolished that confidence.

Now, we have to spend $700 billion to try to get it back, and it’s by no means certain that even this enormous bailout plan will work. Confidence is incredibly important. In a way, it’s the only factor that counts in finance. Do markets and lenders have confidence in this plan? Do they have confidence that it will work successfully for the whole country and not just for the Wall Street buddy system? The results in the markets, post-bailout, are dismal......

.....I wonder if :bad Mr. Paulson with his hundreds of millions in the bank really understands the terror of those people in the room in La Jolla and the tens of millions like them. I wonder if Mr. Bernanke does. I wonder if, as they rolled the dice on Lehman and came up snake eyes, they thought of the fear that would spread throughout the land. What do people — decent, hard-working people — do now? The standard advice would be to buy when the market is down, and it’s probably good advice. But only “probably” because we have no idea how far down we’ll go or how long it will take to recover. Maybe it is better to be liquid now. But then again, maybe not. Uncertainty and fear rule.

Frankly, I don’t know the answer. I just know that for a long time, we have paid Wall Street “experts” unimaginable sums for preparing for our retirement. They still have our money, and we have ashes. And I wonder whose side government is on, which is a bad thought to have, and I wish I didn’t have it. As the song goes, there is revolution in the air.

Ben Stein is a lawyer, writer, actor and economist. E-mail: ebiz@nytimes.com.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/b...%20Stein&st=cse

lunar 12.10.2008 19:09

1 Anhang/Anhänge
  • OCTOBER 11, 2008
What History Tells Us About the Market

The breathtakingly volatile week has left investors numb. A close study of the Great Crash, and the decades that followed, offers some unnerving context, and some reasons for optimism.

By JASON ZWEIG

July 9, 1932 was a day Wall Street would never wish to relive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41.63, down 91% from its level exactly three years earlier. Total trading volume that day was a meager 235,000 shares. "Brother, Can You Spare a Dime," was one of the top songs of the year. Investors everywhere winced with the pain of recognition at the patter of comedian Eddie Cantor, who sneered that his broker had told him "to buy this stock for my old age. It worked wonderfully. Within a week I was an old man!"

The nation was in the grip of what U.S. Treasury Secretary Ogden Mills called "the psychology of fear." Industrial production was down 52% in three years; corporate profits had fallen 49%. "Many businesses are better off than ever," Mr. Cantor wisecracked. "Take red ink, for instance: Who doesn't use it?".......


.........The market's latest frame of mind seems reminiscent of a passage from Emily Dickinson's poem "After Great Pain a Formal Feeling Comes":

This is the Hour of Lead --
Remembered, if outlived,
As Freezing persons recollect the Snow --
First -- Chill -- then Stupor -- then the letting go.

This collective stupor may very likely be the last stage before many investors finally let go -- the phase of market psychology that veteran traders call "capitulation." Stupor prevents rash action, keeping many long-term investors from bailing out near the bottom. When, however, it breaks and many investors finally do let go, the market will finally be ready to rise again. No one can spot capitulation before it sets in. But it may not be far off now. Investors who have, as Graham put it, either the enterprise or the money to invest now, somewhere near the bottom, are likely to prevail over those who wait for the bottom and miss it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122...ign2008_mostpop

lunar 12.10.2008 20:21

The Devastating Week That Was

by: Jeff Pietsch October 11, 2008 | about stocks: QQQQ / SPY



(Click to enlarge; click here for explanation of categories.)

Goodness Gracious Late Cretaceous! Equity markets were pummeled back to the Stone Age this week. Well, I am glad that I caveated my positive outlook for these last five days with a Black Swan comment, because that is exactly what we got. In one of the worst weeks in market history, equity commentators could only draw analogies to 1929. Once again, save some surprising US Dollar strength (UUP +0.3%), the S&P 500 (SPY) recorded a truly staggering 19.8% decline over a period of record ranges and little respite as credit markets refused to thaw on a global basis. (FT - Icelandic Banks; BW - Global Cuts)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/994...ource=headline1

lunar 13.10.2008 09:09

Jeremy Warner: The goalposts have shifted dramatically

Monday, 13 October 2008

This is momentous stuff. It's been clear for a long time that the crisis in credit markets is going to change banking beyond recognition, but not until the last few days have the jaw-dropping implications come to be fully understood. Banking the world over is about to become publicly controlled, with Europe and the US now intent on following Britain's lead in recapitalising beleaguered balance sheets.

In the City, there is growing dismay over what now seems certain to be the part, or possibly even full, nationalisation of major banks. In the past few days, the Government has dramatically shifted the goal posts over what is being demanded in terms of new capital........

.........Government sources dismissed complaints of sequestration as irrelevant. "A huge amount of taxpayers' money is being put at risk here. Do banks have an alternative? Plainly not. They have no cards to play. They are bust without us."

Nevertheless, there is a bad feeling about this. The risk is that news of the dilution will further destabilise the banks, and with everyone running for the exit, the Government will be forced to take them entirely into national ownership. We are at a turning point in history. The markets have failed us, and for better or worse, we are entering a new age of austerity and public control, in which much of the free-market thinking of the past 30 years will be turned on its head.


full story: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...lly-959285.html

.....ob es das ist was sich die WallstreetMafia gewünscht hat :confused:rolleyes im Gegensatz zur FED sind ja die EZB SNB usw. keine private Bankeninstutionen :p wenn auch immer am Gängelband der USA :(

lunar 13.10.2008 09:28

Scary! From Bill Murphy’s special Sunday midas-[gold wrap]–got gold!

October 12th, 2008 Bill:
I thought I would dig up a comparison of the past 5 days to show how differently the bond market has reacted to the past 5 days of intense selling in the market. Note from the charts that from its bottom, 10 year bond rates have actually gone up about 40 basis points in the face of a 1500 drop in the Dow (actually 2200 points if you go to the bottom of this Friday.


Take not also that the Utilities appear to have fallen off a cliff during this same time, from 425 last Friday to an amazing close of 325 this Friday, and with an intraday low of 290 or so. That means instead of rising during this crushing deflationary environment including an enormous fall in oil, the conservative and low-beta utilities have dropped almost 30% and this in just 5 days. This total disconnect between bonds and the utilities a shocker, and hints strongly that something unthinkable is coming down the pike.

The other thing I saw is, that unlike an impending crash bottom, the volume in the Dow stocks has not increased as would be expected. As you can see in the one month Dow chart, the volume is actually less than what it was last month when the average was over 2,000 points higher. This is very unusual and very scary behavior. I would suspect that the bottom whenever and wherever it comes will be accompanied with amazing volume with perhaps only the world governments being the buyers.

lunar 13.10.2008 09:41

1 Anhang/Anhänge
:schwitz.

lunar 13.10.2008 10:03

:rolleyes :rolleyes :rolleyes

The Next Meltdown: Credit-Card Debt

Rising rates are accelerating credit-card defaults and soured debt could further undermine the financial system

The troubles sound familiar. Borrowers falling behind on their payments. Defaults rising. Huge swaths of loans souring. Investors getting burned. But forget the now-familiar tales of mortgages gone bad. The next horror for beaten-down financial firms is the $950 billion worth of outstanding credit-card debt—much of it toxic......

mit Video: http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...ws+%2B+analysis

lunar 13.10.2008 10:21

This is most likely my last posting ;)

October 12, 2008 OvS (usagold.com 12October2008; 23:21)

It’s something like: You know
the huge asteroid is going to
hit, so why bother. I’ll tend
my garden, my children, my
books and a rare friend here
and there…what more does
one want? These are supposed
to be my golden years, so, let
it be. No more negative news.
Just living for the moment…

lunar 13.10.2008 10:31

An idol of the Hindu Goddess Durga is immersed into a river in Siliguri, India on Thursday. Durga is seen as a symbol of truth winning out over the forces of evil and injustice. The four-day Hindu festival honoring her ends with Durga's immersion in water as a way of bidding farewell until next year.

http://www.spiegel.de/international...,583240,00.html

:) ....hoffen wir, dass sie auch gegen die FinanzMafia hilft :cool

lunar 13.10.2008 10:38

MILLIARDENHILFE

Koalitionsspitze einigt sich auf Finanzrettungsplan

Es ist das größte Finanzrettungspaket der Nachkriegsgeschichte: Kanzlerin Merkel, Vize Steinmeier und Finanzminister Steinbrück haben sich auf die Grundzüge eines Hilfsplans für die deutschen Banken geeinigt. Das Ziel eines ausgeglichenen Haushalts dürfte damit Makulatur sein.
mehr... [ Video | Forum ]

lunar 13.10.2008 10:47

von Folker Hellmeyer, Chefanalyst der Bremer Landesbank

13. Oktober 2008

Internationale Politik liefert die „Mother of all Bailouts“ – Stabilität auf der Agenda!

Der Euro eröffnet heute bei 1.3550, nachdem am Freitag Tiefstkurse bei 1.3261 markiert wurden.
Der USD notiert aktuell gegenüber dem JPY bei 100.15. „Carry-Trades“ haben sich nach dramatischer Schwäche am Freitag leicht erholt. EUR-JPY stellt sich auf 135.60 nach Tiefstkursen bei 132.34 und EUR-CHF oszilliert bei 1.5370 nach Tiefstkursen bei 1.5110.........

.....Nach dieser „Mother of all Bailouts“ sind zukünftige Diskurse oder Diskussionen über die frühere Anstaltslast und Gewährträgerhaftung des deutschen öffentlichen Bankensektors voraussichtlich auf Jahre Historie. Das ist auch gut so.
Ebenso dürfte der Einfluss neoliberaler Lobbygruppen deutlich minimiert sein. Das ist sogar noch besser!
Der Begriff Investmentbanker hat eine gute Chance zum „Unwort“ des nächsten Jahres gekürt zu werden.
(Solitär aufgestellte) Investmentbanker, die sich bisher noch in Finanzvorständen gehalten haben, dürften und sollten Platz machen für Banker, die die volkswirtschaftlichen Funktionen des Bankgeschäfts verstehen und leben. Investmentbanking wird in Zukunft eine angemessene und nicht mehr unangemessen große Rolle im Bankgeschäft spielen.
Darüber hinaus bieten sich noch ein paar weitere Diskussionsvorschläge, die die Welt der Finanzen und Wirtschaft in Richtung Nachhaltigkeit bewegen können!
Um Finanzmonopoly zu verhindern, stellt sich die Frage, ob Übernahmen nur noch auf „Cashbasis“ abgewickelt werden sollten. Dann ergibt sich hier zukünftig auch eine Beruhigung, die dem Produktionsfaktor Arbeit etwas stärkere Bedeutung zukommen lässt.
Passen globale Finanzinstitutionen zu nationalen Volkswirtschaften? Ist nicht die Beliebigkeit globaler Institutionen in der Verlagerung der Steuerpflicht und der Verlagerung sensibler Bereiche in aufsichtsrechtliche Oasen eine wesentliche Ursache der Krise? Hier besteht Handlungsbedarf.
„If institutions are too big – make them smaller!“
Entsprechend sind in der jetzigen Lage durchaus mittel- und langfristig potentiell positive Tendenzen möglich, die Zuversicht begründen dürfen!.....
http://www.markt-daten.de/kommentar...tar/aktuell.htm

....ob sich diese Gedanken/Vorschläge auch umsetzen :confused:rolleyes:gruebel

lunar 13.10.2008 11:03



http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf :hihi

lunar 13.10.2008 13:01

Infinite Money For Infinite Loans Create Infinite Inflation


October 13, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis


Today, we talk about anti semitism, the Jewish riots in Acre [didn't hear about that? Ah!] the gold markets and the gnomes of Switzerland who have been caught with their pants down. We learn that the solution the G7 central bankers and government officials have chosen is...hold onto your gold bars and coins....INFINITE INFUSIONS OF PAPER MONEY. Yes, that is the 'solution'. Sigh. Will they ever learn? They not only claim, this is a liquidity, not an overboard debt crisis but Paulson also announces, the US will NOT protect itself from a flood of imports. Got that? Good.


Fed Says ECB, Others to Offer Unlimited Dollar Funds
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve said central banks will offer financial institutions unlimited dollar funds, backing up efforts by governments to restore confidence in markets. The ECB, the Bank of England and the Swiss central bank will conduct dollar auctions with maturities of seven days, 28 days and 84 days at a fixed interest rate, the Washington-based Fed said on its Web site today. The Bank of Japan will consider introducing ``similar measures.''

This is no helicopter drop. This is every bank bomber on earth is going to load up with paper money backed by vast government debts and then it will dump the entire mess right on top of the huge pile of worthless paper equities. This supposedly will restart lending in a world awash in red ink.


When banks see no profits in lending, they stop lending. When debtors are too deep in debt, bankers sensibly will stop lending. When nations lend too much to themselves, they find it increasingly hard to attract money from other nations and end up bankrupt. When anyone over-expands use of credit, they end up either paying very high interest rates or going under. The fact that global interest rates were going up and up DESPITE huge, huge, huge attempts by governments and central bankers to drop rates so 'economies could grow', this meant that we had hit that magical ceiling where it is not possible to lend cheaply, so greatly.


Instead of facing reality, all the people who created so many bubbles from 1974 to today when to work with magic wands, demanding that the flying magical piggy bank shower debtors with more credit. This failed, of course. Any money poured into the banks, stayed there.


Simple, of course: so many borrowers were going bankrupt and the derivatives instruments based on reselling bonds based on the potential of a bunch of bedraggled borrowers repaying vast debts somehow, well, this failed. And so banks had to 'recapitalize' themselves which is fancy antsy talk for 'attract savings, by gum!'


Well, the way we attract savings is by raising interest rates. Then lending it out again, at more than the rate offered to attract savings. The true cost for attracting savings is around 7% globally. But the central bankers want it to be around Japanese levels: .5%. Even 0%!


This way, a certain someone can borrow infinite money for spending on infinite imports: the US can continue to gorge on world resources and cough up hairballs of debt. This pile of hairballs [my cat just did this in the office] is rising as high as Mount Olympus. The hope is to increase 'liquidity' so that the hairball pile will be higher than the Himalayan mountains. Next: grow it until it is high as the moon.

lunar 13.10.2008 13:05

Sun 12 Oct 2008

BREAKING NEWS: Retail Sales Probably Fell In September

Posted by alyx under Uncategorized
[3] Comments



OK, I am starting to overuse my I-am-being-so-funny-and-ironic BREAKING NEWS when-it-is-not-breaking-news tag as much as CNBC does, but come on:
Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) — Sales at U.S. retailers probably dropped in September as mounting job losses, plunging home prices and the deepening credit crisis shook consumers, economists said before reports this week.

Purchases fell 0.7 percent following a 0.3 percent decline the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before the Commerce Department’s Oct. 15 report. Other figures may show housing starts fell to a 17-year low and falling fuel prices tempered increases in the cost of living.

The stock-market meltdown last week may further undermine already fragile consumer confidence, prompting cutbacks on non- essentials like new cars and vacations that will deepen the economic slump. Falling oil prices are the one bright spot, slowing inflation and giving the Federal Reserve leeway to keep cutting interest rates to unclog credit markets.

Consumer confidence may fall as a result of the Dow going down like a gazillion points in a month. Captain Obvious must be temping as their weekend desk editor.

lunar 13.10.2008 13:20

1 Anhang/Anhänge
:mad


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