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lunar 23.12.2008 17:43


lunar 23.12.2008 22:00

Tue 23 Dec 2008

And A Failout, In A Fail Tree

Posted by alyx under bailout
No Comments

Gather roun’ the LOLFed Fail Tree for some cheap scotch and a song! With a h/t to Erin Lamos and Evan Sparks for sending this link along, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) has published a remarkably non-stodgy rework of The Night Before Christmas. An excerpt:
For this year the markets had caused such a clatter–
Mortgages–credit crunch–what was the matter?
With th’economy hitting new low after low,
Just what would happen no pundit could know.

Up on the roof came the sound of a clank,
And out of a sleigh hopped St. Ben and St. Hank.
It was first to Bear Stearns that they opened their sack,
Before bailing out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.

Lehman was naughty; no presents they got.
But credit default swaps made AIG hot.
Now WaMu, now Goldman, now Morgan and Merrill
Now Citi, Wachovia–all were in peril!

If you prefer shorter songs, I re-wrote the 12 days of Christmas a while back, as well. Happy caroling!

lunar 23.12.2008 22:19

1 Anhang/Anhänge

lunar 24.12.2008 09:29


2008's star newsletter profits from the stars

Commentary: Arch Crawford uses astrology ;) to head Top Ten list

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:55 p.m. EST Dec. 17, 2008
Comments: 44

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Diamonds among the ashes -- or scum that's floated to the top? A distressing number of bad-tempered readers want to believe the latter. But although 2008's top performers are a new lot, at least some of them look surprisingly solid.

Of course, it was a disastrous year. The dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 was down 38.3% over the year to date ending in November.
But the winner, Arch Crawford's Crawford Perspectives, gained 42.4%, a performance that would have gotten into the top 10 most any year. Crawford is a veteran technically-oriented timer who is famous for openly discussing astrology. (I say openly because there's more of it on Wall Street than you might think. Or perhaps you do think). He's had bad years and he has underperformed the market over the decades that the Hulbert Financial Digest has been monitoring him, but in the last few years he's been on a roll. See Nov. 9 column......

......But, in this business, past failure is not a bar to future success. I should also chivalrously note the presence of Doug Fabian's ETF Trader (up 13.2%). Mark Hulbert and I have periodically booted Fabian for his outrageous advertising claims See Mark's Sept. 6, 2006 column
But this year, he has something to shout about.

2008's Top Ten

1. Crawford Perspectives +42.4%

2. Peter Eliades Stockmarket Cycles 20.8%
3. Elliott Wave Financial Forecast 18.9%
4. Doug Fabian's ETF Trader 13.2%
5. Yamamoto Forecast 7.7%
6. Lowry On-Demand Investor 7.6%
7. Investment Models Newsletter 5.6%
8. P.Q. Wall Forecast 5.4%
9. Stealth Stocks Daily Alert 5.3%
10. On the Money 2.1%

full story:{FFA002E0-CA5E-4E4F-917D-1CC76936F341}

:supi :supi ja - das auch :rolleyes

Ten Worst Performers of 2008

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:08 a.m. EST Dec. 23, 2008
Comments: 76

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Too old to cry but it hurts too much to laugh? Readers usually take a sadistic glee in our annual list of the year's 10 worst-performing letters, but 2008 has just hurt too many people for it to be funny. Still, some are hurt more than others.

Recently, I listed 2008's 10 best performers, as tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. ( See Dec. 17 column). I list 2008's 10 worst performers at the end of this column.
Worst really means worst in 2008. The bottom performer, Charlie Buck's Win Before You Buy, is down an appalling 82.0%, and there are several close contenders.
Simple arithmetic suggests these letters will never climb out of the performance hole they've fallen into. But, paradoxically, they could still be worth watching in the years to come.......

Ten Worst Performers of 2008

BI Research -56.3%
Louis Navellier's Emerging Growth -57.6%
Medical Technology Stock Letter -61.2%
Oberweis Report -63.4%
Linde Equity Report -63.6%
Ruff Times -65.2%
Dines Letter -72.1%
Equities Special Situations -74.3%
International Harry Schultz Letter -75.6%
Charlie Buck's Win Before You Buy -82.0%

lunar 25.12.2008 13:53

Akt. 24.12.08; 15:52 Pub. 24.12.08; 13:17
Römische Armee gegen die Credit Suisse

von Joel Bedetti
Mit Kerzen und Transparenten haben Kleinsparer gegen die Credit Suisse demonstriert, die ihnen Lehman-Brothers-Optionen angedreht hat und ihr Vermögen vernichtet hat. Die Wut ist gross, die Scham auch.

CS-Kundenberatung: Mit allen Tricks
Lehman-Opfer: Jetzt reichts!

Es sind nicht gerade jene Leute, die sonst gegen Grossbanken aufbegehren, die sich heute morgen auf dem Paradeplatz versammelt haben. Rentner in grauer Winterkleidung, gutbürgerlich wirkende Mittelständler mit Lederstiefeln und teuren Broschen. Doch wie Gewerkschafter halten sie Transparente in den Händen. In roter Schrift sind Parolen wie «100 Prozent Verlust» auf die Leintücher geschrieben...

ganzer Artikel:

lunar 25.12.2008 14:30

Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says

By Stanley White and Shigeki Nozawa

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan should write-off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said Akio Mikuni, president of credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co.

The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes “drastic measures” to help bail out the U.S. economy
, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.

“It’s difficult for the U.S. to borrow its way out of this problem,” Mikuni, 69, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television broadcast today. “Japan can help by extending debt cancellations.”

The U.S. budget deficit may swell to at least $1 trillion this fiscal year as policy makers flood the country with $8.5 trillion through 23 different programs to combat the worst recession since the Great Depression. Japan is the world’s second-biggest foreign holder of Treasuries after China.....

fll story:

.....da werden sie geholfen :rolleyes

lunar 25.12.2008 14:35

Financier Is Found Dead in a Madoff Aftermath

Published: December 23, 2008
Around 4 a.m. on Monday, a prominent hedge fund manager who apparently had lost $1.4 billion with Bernard L. Madoff, telephoned a longtime client in Paris, sounding upset.

David X Prutting/Patrick McMullan
R. Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, founder of Access.

Interactive Madoff’s Clients

Madoff Dealings Tarnish a Private Swiss Bank (December 24, 2008)

Times Topics: Bernard L. Madoff

Mary Altaffer/Associated Press
Journalists gathered on Tuesday at the Madison Avenue office where the body of Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet was found.

“I have to fight for my clients and myself,” the money manager, R. Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, told the client, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of investigations into the $50 billion Ponzi scheme Mr. Madoff is suspected of orchestrating. “It’s a complete nightmare.”

A little more than 24 hours later, Mr. de la Villehuchet was found dead in his office on Madison Avenue. The evidence pointed to suicide, the police said on Tuesday.

Security officers discovered the body of Mr. de la Villehuchet, a co-founder of Access International Advisors, in a chair, with one of his legs propped on his desk. His wrists and his left biceps were slashed, said Paul J. Browne, a New York police spokesman. A wastebasket had been placed under his bleeding biceps, Mr. Browne said.

No suicide note was found, but sleeping pills and a box cutter were discovered under his desk......
full story:

....ob Herr Madoff so was wie ein Gewissen hat :rolleyes auch wenn er kein Einzeltäter wäre - zumindest orientiert über alles war er sicherlich :mad

lunar 25.12.2008 15:17

Zitat von krisskross

.......Wer dennoch nicht von den Märkten lassen kann, dem sei folgendes Video empfohlen. Kollege Charlie Rose spricht mit Nassim Taleb, Autor des kontrovers diskutierten Buches "Der schwarze Schwan".

Taleb, wofür man ihn schätzt (oder ablehnt), kompakt auf 20 Minuten verteilt. Erneut absolut Sehenswert! Danke Charlie Rose.

Falls das Video hier nicht korrekt angezeigt wird, dann bitte hier entlang
merci :)

lunar 25.12.2008 15:27

Wed 24 Dec 2008

A Christmas Miracle! GMAC Now A Bank Holding Company

Posted by alyx under bailout

All GMAC wanted from Santa Ben and Hank the Elf was approval of their bank holding company application, and look what they got, at practically 5 PM on the day before Christmas:
The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced its approval of the application and notices under sections 3 and 4 of the Bank Holding Company Act by GMAC LLC and IB Finance Holding Company, LLC, both of Detroit, Michigan, to become bank holding companies on conversion of GMAC Bank, a Utah industrial loan company, to a commercial bank and to retain certain nonbanking subsidiaries.

Fed PR here.

To all the revelers in this decision:

....timing is everything :rolleyes

lunar 26.12.2008 12:39


lunar 26.12.2008 13:26

Market Forecasts 2009- Gold to Soar, U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds Crash

Stock-Markets / Investing 2009 Dec 23, 2008 - 11:57 AM By: Clive_Maund

The way things look it will soon be impossible - or very difficult and expensive - to obtain physical gold and silver. The first major wave of physical buying has bought up all of the coins and small bar gold and silver available on the market, with the result that if you want any, you must pay a large premium. Right now, the second wave is underway, with astute investors forcing the Comex to deliver, which is having the effect of drawing down their warehouse stocks at a rapid rate. As the Comex is massively leveraged and trades hundreds of times more gold and silver than it has in its possession, it is clear that immediately their warehouse stocks are completely depleted, there will be a mad scramble to buy physical gold and silver in order to meet contract obligations........

On the long-term chart for gold we can see that, despite the mess and mayhem in commodities generally and in the stockmarket, paper gold has held up well this year, and it has not even reacted back to the long-term uptrend line dating back to the start of the bullmarket. Technically we still have a trend of lower highs and lower lows from the March peak and the next important intermediate uptrend cannot be considered to have started until it breaks above the red downtrend line. That said, however, the low appears to have been put in in October and it appears to be powering up for an upside breakout........

The "bubble factory" has in a relatively short space of time manufactured the stockmarket boom and bust, the carry trade scam, the dot com boom and bust, the housing boom and bust, and the commodities boom and bust. The elites who created these bubbles have profited vastly from each of them, which was not hard for them to do as they are in possession of the itinerary. These have culminated in what for them is the crowning glory, the Treasuries bubble. Treasuries are mainly the province of big money and it is ironic that while most investors are disappearing into a vortex of wealth destruction, they are cleaning up yet again.......

.......The world is facing a financial crisis of magnitude 10+ on the Richter scale. The man in the street knows that something is very wrong but has, perhaps fortunately in certain respects, no idea just how bad things are going to get. Even seasoned professionals who may know intellectually how bad it could get cannot wholly grasp it. Perhaps one of the best indications that it is going to get really really bad is that Mordor itself is threatened. The elite citadels of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, where you only need to have a pulse to get a $20 million bonus, are under siege. This is unprecended. Unlike the auto giants Chrysler, Ford and GM, however, who are having to grovel for a paltry $20 billion or so to keep the wolf from the door, Mordor can expect unlimited access to taxpayer largesse, made possible by the Paulson bailout plan trojan horse earlier this year. Whether this will ultimately save it remains unclear for it is threatened first by the explosion of the derivatives mountain and then if it survives that by the filthy dispossessed hordes, who will clamouring for blood at the gates.

lunar 26.12.2008 18:29

UPDATE 1-Rouble devalued again after Russian oil nears $30

Fri, Dec 26 2008, 10:21 GMT

MOSCOW, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank allowed the eighth mini rouble devaluation of the month on Friday, a day after the price for the country's main export commodity, oil, neared $30 per barrel, the lowest level since 2004.

The collapse of oil and other commodities prices coupled with the global economic slowdown and a capital flight from emerging markets turned the rouble in a sure-fire depreciation bet from the previous appreciation bet in less than six months.

The central bank has spent more than $100 billion defending the currency in the last 4-1/2 months to prevent a run on banks and spreading the panic among the population, which still has sour memories of saving losses in the 1990s and Soviet times.

Faced with an economy potentially heading for its first recession in a decade, Russia started on a gradual depreciation path six weeks ago to preserve reserves -- still the world's third largest at $451 billion - which will be needed to support the real economy.

Russian authorities, which have initially denied they would allow the rouble to fall sharply, have softened the tone in the past weeks, saying the rouble cannot remain strong in a situation of a downturn on global commodities markets......

...da zerschlägt sich manche Hoffnung :rolleyes

lunar 26.12.2008 19:17

Eartha Kitt, an Emmy-winning performer famous for 'Santa Baby' and a catlike purr, dies at 81
By POLLY ANDERSON Associated Press Writer
NEW YORK December 25, 2008 (AP)
The Associated Press

In this file photo, actress Eartha Kitt attends the opening night of "Cat On A Hot Tin Roof" at the Broadhurst Theatre on March 6, 2008, in New York. A family friend says singer and actress Eartha Kitt has died of colon cancer at age 81.
(Evan Agostini/AP Photo)
More Photos

Eartha Kitt, a sultry singer, dancer and actress who rose from South Carolina cotton fields to become an international symbol of elegance and sensuality, has died, a family spokesman said. She was 81.

Andrew Freedman said Kitt, who was recently treated at Columbia Presbyterian Hospital, died Thursday in Connecticut of colon cancer.

Kitt, a self-proclaimed "sex kitten" famous for her catlike purr, was one of America's most versatile performers, winning two Emmys and nabbing a third nomination. She also was nominated for several Tonys and two Grammys.....

US-Sängerin Eartha Kitt mit 81 an Krebs gestorben


New York (dpa) - Wenn Eartha Kitt auf der Bühne stand, zog sie alle Register: Mit ihrer fesselnden Körpersprache und einer Stimme, die sie vom sanften Schnurren bis zum giftigen Fauchen modulieren konnte, war sie das «Sex Kitten» (Sex-Kätzchen) Amerikas. Jetzt ist sie tot.

Die afroamerikanische Sängerin, Tänzerin und Schauspielerin erlag am Donnerstag in New York einem Krebsleiden. Als schwarze Muse der weißen Bohème in den vierziger und fünfziger Jahren hatte sie in «Catwoman» Kultstatus gewonnen. Ihre Krallen zeigte sie bei einem Abendessen im Weißen Haus, als sie heftige Kritik am Vietnam-Krieg übte. Der Kommentar versetzte ihrer Karriere einen schmerzlichen Knick. Doch wie eine echte Katze fiel Kitt immer wieder auf die Füße....

lunar 26.12.2008 19:41

Pakistan moves troops toward Indian border

Tension grows between nuclear-armed neighbors following Mumbai attacks

Vinay Joshi / AP
Indian soldiers keep vigil along the border with Pakistan in Ranjitpura, India, on Thursday.
View related photos

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Pakistan began moving thousands of troops away from the Afghan border toward India on Friday amid tensions following the Mumbai attacks, intelligence officials said.

The move represents a sharp escalation in the stand off between the nuclear-armed neighbors and stands to weaken Pakistan's U.S.-backed campaign against al-Qaida and Taliban close to Afghanistan. Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said that all troop leave had been canceled.......

full story:

lunar 26.12.2008 23:28

Fri 26 Dec 2008

Seven Scandalous Financial Bugaboos

Posted by alyx under markets
1 Comment
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…that you may not have heard of.

The big news this year was about the CDO (collateralized debt obligation), MBS (mortgage-backed security) and SIV (structured investment vehicle), but there are many other marvels of financial engineering that, when they went wrong, brought the pain almost as hard as the names that were tossed around the most.

Breakingviews chronicles seven of them. Not all are always going to be bad in practice, but they all have the potential to be completely boneheaded. I’ll do my best to translate their list:

  1. PIK (payment-in-kind) toggles: If you can’t pay the interest on bonds you have issued - just issue more bonds. Sure, the rate will go up, but if you are on the short bus to Default City anyway, it doesn’t really matter what the interest rate is, does it?
  2. Minibonds: They’re not bonds, they’re derivatives… and the only thing “mini” is the value when you consider that many of them were merely derivatives with Lehman as a counterparty.
  3. CVRs (contingent value rights): This would be like if I bought a cow but I didn’t want to pay the seller his full price and I gave him some future option on the cow. If I get a lot of milk from the cow, the seller sweeps in and takes it all (yes, I buy the cow, he gets the milk for free). If the cow dies the seller is hosed. I should just buy a cow from someone easier to haggle with.
  4. Accumulators: A currency hedge that limits your profits, but not your losses? Brilliant!
  5. Cash-settled options: It’s just an option which pays out in cash, which, to be honest, is how 99% of us deal with our options and futures in practice - seriously, folks, when was the last time you took delivery on a barrel of oil? Breakingviews gives an example of some German company who got soaked doing this though, so just read their example.
  6. Debt accordions: Not to be confused with The World’s Tiniest Violin, which we play sometimes when CEOs get emo, a debt accordion is a provision in a loan that lets a borrower expand their senior, secured debt, without consulting with anyone who already holds any of their senior, secured debt. Only a problem when things go south and suddenly original debtholders are fighting for scraps with the new guys.
  7. Ponzi schemes: see Madoff, Bernard. This is one I would never have included on the list; it’s outright fraud with no practicable use whatsoever. But, oh well. That’s what happens when you work with other peoples’ lists. I have to agree that I wish these would die in a fire though.
Anything you’d include that they skipped over?

lunar 26.12.2008 23:32

24 December 2008

A Question Worth Considering for the New Year...

What is at the heart of the US financial crisis?

Is it that the US has been precipitously cut off from some foreign source of funding? Has there been an oil embargo, a supply shock imposed such as the one that triggered the financial crisis of the 1970's? Are the problems caused by some external change, some actor outside the system?

I think most will say the answer is 'no.' The problems are internal to the US, to its financial system.

So, how would you fix a system that has broken from an internal flaw in this way? Try more of the same, business as usual, apply fresh debt to a failed system based on a growing pyramid of debt without making any substantial changes?

The US financial system, the housing, equity and Treasury markets, are all Ponzi schemes, with the need for a constantly increasing source of fresh money to keep going. That funding is new debt, new dollars based on nothing produced, just the trust and confidence of the participants.

Would you fix the Madoff Ponzi scheme by giving Bernie more money, public money, to keep his payments flowing to his 'investors?'

I think most of us would say, no, no more money.

But what is the difference between that and what Paulson and Bernanke are doing today? Is there a graceful exit strategy? Have any serious reforms or changes been made or even proposed? Has there even been a frank disclosure and discussion of exactly what happened, and what is continuing to happen, beyond blaming the victims, or cynically hiding behind 'well that's how things are?'

No. The key participants in the Ponzi scheme are continuing to take their gains out, in dividends and bonuses, front running the final collapse and admission that "its all gone; we're bankrupt."

Think about it.

What would you do if it is a Ponzi scheme, teetering on the edge?

Posted by Jesse at 12:26 PM

lunar 27.12.2008 12:35


Israel bombardiert Hamas- Stellungen im Gaza- Streifen


zur Fotostrecke

Eskalation im Gaza-Streifen: Das israelische Militär hat mindestens 30 Stellungen der islamistischen Hamas bombardiert. Dutzende Menschen wurden getötet, viele verletzt. Zuvor hatten militante Palästinenser wieder Raketen auf Israel abgefeuert. mehr... [ Video | Forum ]

lunar 27.12.2008 12:41

1 Anhang/Anhänge
Page last updated at 22:11 GMT, Thursday, 25 December 2008
UK playwright Harold Pinter dies

Harold Pinter speaking in 2005 about winning the Nobel prize

Nobel Prize-winning playwright Harold Pinter, who had cancer, died on Christmas Eve aged 78.

He wrote more than 30 plays including The Caretaker and The Birthday Party. His film scripts include The French Lieutenant's Woman.

His style was so distinctive, "Pinteresque" entered the Oxford English Dictionary......

His wife, Lady Antonia Fraser, said: "He was a great, and it was a privilege to live with him for over 33 years."

Harold Pinter speaking in 2005 about winning the Nobel prize:

lunar 27.12.2008 13:13

Währung China lässt Landeswährung für Handel in Südostasien zu

dpa-afx PEKING. China unternimmt erste Schritte, die Landeswährung Yuan für den internationalen Handel zuzulassen. Wie die amtliche Nachrichtenagentur Xinhua berichtete, hat die chinesische Führung am Mittwoch ein entsprechendes Pilotprojekt für den Handel mit den Nachbarstaaten beschlossen. Demnach sollen ausgewählte chinesische Wirtschaftszonen ihre Geschäfte mit den Ländern der Südostasiatischen Staatengemeinschaft Asean künftig in Yuan abwickeln dürfen. Die Regelung gilt auch für den Handel mit Hongkong und Macao. So soll die chinesische Exportwirtschaft gestützt werden, die stark unter der Wirtschaftskrise leidet. Zugleich sollen die Risiken aus schwankenden Wechselkursen verringert werden.....

ganzer Artikel:;2115998

$ :rolleyes

lunar 27.12.2008 20:38

Sat 27 Dec 2008

Lloyd Gets The Silver Medal This Year

Posted by alyx under goldman sachs

Goldman Sachs used to be the undisputed heavyweight champion of the merger world, and even if Lloyd Blankfein never wore a World Wrestling-style belt to negotiations to indicate such, it was implied. This year, GS retained #1 standing in the Thomson Reuters M&A metrics, but according to Dealogic, Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan leapfrogged ahead:
The loss of its status as leader in one of the two rankings adds to the list of indignities [Goldman Sachs] suffered in 2008. Goldman converted into a bank-holding company amid a 65% drop in its stock so far this year. It also serves as a reminder of the doubt that the financial crisis has cast on the independent securities-firm model.

J.P. Morgan advised on 350 deals announced in 2008 valued at $818.2 billion, according to preliminary figures from Dealogic. That compares with 295 deals valued at $755.6 billion for Goldman. Last year, J.P. Morgan was third after Goldman and Morgan Stanley, according to the data.

Thomson Reuters includes the value of some things like options and spinoffs that Dealogic doesn’t account for, thus the discrepancy. Both providers rank JPM A#1 in Europe this year, which means Jamie Dimon will be strutting around the EU like a peacock before you know it.

Aside: we’d like to wish a warm welcome this morning to NYT readers who spotted the Bandit in the Style section and clicked through. They took pictures of me, too, but apparently their editors deemed the Bandit better looking. Alas.

lunar 27.12.2008 20:47


US- Politologe Samuel P. Huntington ist tot

Er gilt als Leitfigur der Politikwissenschaft, sein zentrales Werk "Kampf der Kulturen" wurde als wissenschaftlicher Meilenstein gepriesen - und ist doch höchst umstritten: Samuel Phillips Huntington ist im Alter von 81 Jahren gestorben. mehr...

lunar 28.12.2008 13:34

2 Anhang/Anhänge
Cuatro víctimas mortales por el temporal en la últimas horas

Un hombre de 53 años ha muerto tras ser arrastrado al mar por una ola en Gandía (Valencia) se suma a las tres fallecidas en Cataluña desde ayer. - Diez puertos de montaña cerrados al tráfico

AGENCIAS - Barcelona / Valencia - 27/12/2008

El temporal de viento y lluvia que azota el noreste de la Península y en especial el litoral catalán ha provocado tres víctimas mortales en Cataluña en las últimas horas en sucesos atribuidos a la fuerza de las olas. En Gandía (Valencia) otra persona ha fallecido tras caer al agua a causa de un golpe de mar. Además, el mal tiempo ha provocado el cierre de diez puertos de montaña en varias vías secundarias de Cantabria, Burgos, Cáceres, La Rioja, León y Asturias. Además, en una veintena puertos de montaña es necesario circular con cadenas, según la Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT).....


lunar 28.12.2008 14:04

International: 28. Dezember 2008, 13:54
Israel mobilisiert 6500 Reservisten

Uno-Sicherheitsrat fordert Einstellung der Kampfhandlungen

Erstmals seit dem Libanonkrieg vor fast zweieinhalb Jahren hat Israel die Mobilisierung von Reservesoldaten beschlossen. Damit bereitet es einen möglichen Bodeneinsatz im Gazastreifen vor. Der Uno-Sicherheitsrat hat einen sofortigen Stopp aller Militäraktionen im Gazastreifen gefordert. ...
Gaza: Schwere Luftangriffe Israels
Hamas: Droht mit Vergeltung


lunar 28.12.2008 14:19

Das Jahr 2009 im Überblick

2009 Chronologisch

Vieles, was im Januar geschieht, ist als prägender Impuls für die folgenden Monate zu sehen. Das neue Jahr beginnt mit einem Paukenschlag, setzt erste Zeichen für einen Neubeginn und führt im Weiteren die Themen des Dezembers fort. In jenen Bereichen, in denen in den letzten Monaten von 2008 die Hausaufgaben gemacht wurden, öffnen sich jedoch im Verlaufe des Monats neue Perspektiven und zeigen sich Silberstreifen am Horizont.

Zunächst gilt es, die Ärmel hochzukrempeln und sich an die Arbeit zu machen. Wo die Bereitschaft vorhanden ist, konsequent und diszipliniert vorzugehen, können bereits in der ersten Woche einige grundsätzliche Fragen geklärt und massgebliche Schritte zur Lösung von bestehenden Problemen gemacht werden. In der zweiten Monatshälfte sind dann zwei parallel laufende, wichtige Trends zu beobachten: Einerseits werden Ideen, Informationen und Kontakte, die Ende des Jahres und in der ersten Monatshälfte stattfanden, noch einmal daraufhin überprüft, ob sie dem neuen Zeitgeist und den damit verbundenen Anforderungen entsprechen. In einigen Fällen kann deutlich werden, dass zu optimistische und idealistische Annahmen getroffen wurden, was Korrekturen nötig macht. In anderen wiederum mag es sich als sinnvoll erweisen, in einer Konferenz aller Beteiligter die vorhandenen Vorstellungen und Vorschläge noch einmal zu diskutieren und bestehende Missverständnisse zu klären. Gleichzeitig zeigen sich erste Möglichkeiten und Ansätze für eine neue Form der Zusammenarbeit, in welcher Netzwerke (auf der individuellen Ebene ebenso wie in der Wirtschaft und in der Staatengemeinschaft) eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Visionäre Konzepte erhalten Beachtung, und es ist durchaus möglich, dass revolutionäre Ideen Bewegung in bisher scheinbar festgefahrene Situationen bringen.

Der Gemeinschaftssinn, die Bereitschaft aller, individuelle Unterschiede zwar ernst zu nehmen, sich jedoch trotzdem für ein gemeinsames, grösseres Ziel einzusetzen, steht dabei im Zentrum. Technologische Fragen, humanistische Themen und neue soziale Netze dürften ebenfalls eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Neue Vertrags- und Beziehungsmodelle werden diskutiert, ein neuer Umgang mit kulturellen und religiösen Differenzen erörtert. Allenfalls sorgt in den Tagen zwischen dem 18. und 26. Januar ein unerwartetes Ereignis für einen Ecclat, was die Augen für ein bestehendes Problem öffnet, wodurch ein Durchbruch in neue Denkansätze und Perspektiven ermöglicht oder erzwungen wird. Personen in Macht- und Führungspositionen ganz allgemein sowie politische und religiöse Autoritätsfiguren dürften in diesem Zusammenhang eine nicht zu unterschätzende Rolle spielen. Das Gleiche gilt für moralische und ethische Prinzipien sowie die Cyberwelt, virtuelle Realitäten und geistig-spirituelle Bewegungen. Es ist in dieser Zeit allerdings auch immer damit zu rechnen, dass fixe Konzepte und Vorstellungen, die der Realität nicht gerecht werden, für Verwirrung, Irritation und Frustration sorgen. Erst der folgende Monat wird zeigen, welche der Impulse zukunftstauglich sind. Voreilige Schlüsse sind in diesem Zusammenhang gefährlich und müssen später revidiert werden.

und weiter --->

lunar 28.12.2008 21:04

1 Anhang/Anhänge
....kühle Zürcher Nächte :cool

lunar 28.12.2008 21:17

lunar 28.12.2008 22:55

1 Anhang/Anhänge

lunar 29.12.2008 10:57

Zitat von Hoka


Die neue Solidität muss aber auch die Geldschöpfung zügeln. Heute gibt die Notenbank einen Drittel des Geldes aus, den Rest schöpfen die Banken mit Krediten darauf, die wieder zu Einlagen in anderen Banken werden, worauf wieder Kredite erteilt werden. Dieses Geld und jenes der Notenbanken hat keinen direkten, inneren Wert mehr, es ist Papiergeld. Jeder nimmt an, die anderen werden es als Zahlungsmittel annehmen – ein Schneeballsystem fast wie beim Financier Bernard Madoff.

Die Finanzkrise wurde fatal, als im September diese Geldschöpfung aufhörte, weil sich die Banken nichts mehr liehen. Perverserweise stürzten sich dann alle nur noch ins Papiergeld, warfen Realwerte wie Aktien, Öl oder Gold weg. Die US-Notenbank will vielleicht sogar die Staatsschulden nun mit der Druckerpresse «bezahlen».

Demgegenüber sollten vernünftige Notenbanken eine gewisse Golddeckung anstreben, um sich selbst gegen eine Geldschwemme zu disziplinieren und Vertrauen zu gewinnen. Gerade die Schweiz hätte alles Interesse, ihre letzte starke und unabhängige Währung Europas auf eine vertrauensbildende Grundlage zu setzen. Zumal unser Land schon mit dem aufgeblasenen Banksystem von Island in Verbindung gebracht wurde, das letztlich ohne reale Grundlage war.

Mit besonnenen Zukäufen kann der verbliebene Goldschatz bald wieder die Notenbankgeldmenge decken. Die Reserven in abwertungsgefährdeten Papier-Dollars sind bei der Nationalbank dazu vorhanden.


Ungewohnte Töne von der NZZ. Vielleicht haben die Stromsparlampen der SNB ja ein Abo.[img]../stockselect/stock-board/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif[/img]


....auch kritische Kommentare

lunar 29.12.2008 11:10

Sun 28 Dec 2008

Cox Delivers a Mea Culpa and Some Potshots

Posted by alyx under markets
No Comments

Christopher Cox is pretty close to heading out the door of the SEC, but gave an interview earlier this week to the Washington Post where he flings quite a bit of mud at the Treasury and Fed, and comes ~thisclose~ to apologizing for the ill-advised and totally ineffective ban on shorting bank stocks earlier this year:
Cox said the biggest mistake of his tenure was agreeing in September to an extraordinary three-week ban on short selling of financial company stocks. But in publicly acknowledging for the first time that this ban was not productive, Cox said he had been under intense pressure from Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to take this action and did so reluctantly. They “were of the view that if we did not act and act at that instant, these financial institutions could fail as a result and there would be nothing left to save,” Cox said.

Basically - “Hank and Ben made me do it.” He further swipes at the Dynamic Duo for taking an everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach rather than a measured one, and attempts to deflect significant criticism that his measured approach was actually lax enforcement and the equivalent of fiddling while Rome burned. And the whole Madoff thing? Nope, not really sure how that happened, he says, but we’ll take a look at it.

Hank :bad and Ben :bad

lunar 29.12.2008 11:49


Israel greift Uni und Innenministerium in Gaza an


Israels Luftwaffe hat in der Nacht wichtige Einrichtungen der islamistischen Hamas bombardiert, darunter die Universität und das Innenministerium. Bei den mittlerweile drei Tage andauernden Angriffen im Gaza-Streifen starben mehr als 300 Menschen, mehr als 1000 wurden verletzt. mehr... [ Video | Forum ]


lunar 29.12.2008 11:54


....einfach fürchterlich :(

lunar 29.12.2008 12:00

...mal was anderes ;) oder doch nicht Mann und Frau gleichgestellt :rolleyes:o
was tut er denn dort :confused oder - jetzt kostet's eben :o

"What are you doing here?": man asks wife at brothel

Wed Jan 9, 2008 10:23am EST

WARSAW (Reuters) - A Polish man got the shock of his life when he visited a brothel and spotted his wife among the establishment's employees. Polish tabloid Super Express said the woman had been making some extra money on the side while telling her husband she worked at a store in a nearby town.

"I was dumfounded. I thought I was dreaming," the husband told the newspaper on Wednesday.

The couple, married for 14 years, are now divorcing, the newspaper reported.

(Writing by Chris Borowski, Editing by Matthew Jones)

lunar 29.12.2008 13:14

1 Anhang/Anhänge
© Reuters

Gar nicht Easy Ryder: Die chinesische Polizei ist mit neuen Motorrädern von Harley Davidson unterwegs.

...wenigstens etwas von USA ---> China :rolleyes ausser Dollalas

lunar 29.12.2008 15:54

Mon 29 Dec 2008

Happy Birthday Euro!

Posted by alyx under loller dollar

Hey euro, it’s your birthday. We gonna party like it’s your birthday. We gonna sip absinthe like it’s your birthday…

On January 1, the euro turns the ripe old age of 10, which at current exchange rates is the equivalent of turning 14. Euro fans are quick to point out that the Eurozone is doing okay, while countries that aren’t members, like Iceland, have boarded the failboat. Anyway, those nasty days where it was only worth 80 cents to the dollar are long forgotten, so the ECB can bake a nice cake this week and maybe even write I DO NOT HAZ ZIRP on the top of it.

lunar 29.12.2008 17:11

Portraitfoto des Begriffs “Unverhältnismäßigkeit”

von weissgarnix, 28. Dezember 2008

Über den Palästina-Konflikt zu schreiben ist an und für sich ebenso sinnlos wie frustrierend, denn alles, was es dazu sagen gibt, wurde eigentlich längst gesagt, und das mehrfach und in aller Ausführlichkeit. Nun stolperte ich aber per Zufall über die nachfolgenden beiden Charts aus unverdächtiger Quelle, und verstehe plötzlich noch weniger als vorher. Gemessen an den Opfern auf israelischer Seite scheint demnach nämlich die Bedrohung durch palästinensische Gewalttaten auf den mit Abstand niedrigsten Stand seit 8 Jahren und insgesamt auf ein, na sagen wir mal ”beherrschbares Maß” gefallen zu sein. Nicht, daß nicht jeder Tote einer zuviel wäre, egal auf wessen Seite. Aber warum die Israelis ausgerechnet jetzt die größte militärische Aktion seit 1967 vom Stapel lassen und gleich 80 Bomber in den Gaza schicken müssen, die ihrerseits in Nullkommanix 300 Leute unter die Erde bringen, will mir nicht ganz klar werden.

Israelische Opfer im Palästina-Konflikt (Quelle: Israelisches Außenministerium,

....diese Frage kann man sich schon stellen :rolleyes

lunar 29.12.2008 17:56

Re: How many trillions had Bush put us in the red, with one month to go?
Posted by: Wags
Date: December 23, 2008 02:36AM We've seen this one before, so much for the party of fiscal conservatism:

lunar 29.12.2008 18:07

Jim Rogers The Dollar is Toilet Paper

lunar 29.12.2008 21:33

1 Anhang/Anhänge
  • DECEMBER 29, 2008, 1:54 P.M. ET
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010


MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control......

full story:


The United States of Ennui

Our friend at Some Assembly Required had an interesting reaction to the Wall Street Journal story about the Russian Professor who is predicting the breakup of the US into several independent groups of states:

"Some are predicting the USA will erupt and split in six or seven smaller nations. Nope, there is not enough gumption left in the US citizenry to mount a decent protest, much less massive separatists movements. More likely the US will simply thrash around a bit and then fade into irrelevance. Governments will be overthrown, in more places than you might suspect (think Europe). But the US populace will sit in front of the TV, waiting for someone to reward them with their god-given right to happiness and success."
We doubt that the US will become irrelevant for a long time, but it is hard to disagree with such a frank and insightful analysis of the American public. Our hallmark seems to be a deep and abiding boredom and self-absorption, a walking amnesia with an historical perspective measured in days, if not hours.

At times like these the Almighty will often send His people a wake-up call.

Posted by Jesse at 10:02 AM :verbeug

lunar 29.12.2008 21:44

Skaters Jump In as Foreclosures Drain the Pool

Jim Wilson/The New York Times
A group of friends skating the pool of a foreclosed home this month in Fresno, Calif. Skaters are coming to places like Fresno from as far as Germany and Australia. More Photos >

Published: December 28, 2008
On a recent morning, a 27-year-old skateboarder who goes by the name Josh Peacock peered into a swimming pool in Fresno, Calif., emptied by his own hands — and the foreclosure crisis — and flashed a smile as wide as a half-pipe.......

......Skaters are coming to places like Fresno from as far as Germany and Australia. Mr. Peacock said his floor and couch were covered by sleeping bags of visiting skateboarders each weekend.

Some skateboarders use realty tracking sites like and to find foreclosed houses with pools, while others trawl through satellite images from Google Earth. On the Web site, where skaters trade tips about how to find and drain abandoned pools, one poster wrote about the current economic malaise. “God bless Greenspan,” the post read, “patron saint of pool skatin’.”......:kopf

full story:

....Fantasie haben die Amis jedenfalls :rolleyes:cool

lunar 29.12.2008 22:02

....hoffentlich wird dieser Sack nicht zu schwer für ihn :schwitz

Aktuelle Uhrzeit 10:13

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