Das neueste von pillepalle:
+++ Liveticker zur Finanzkrise 12.31 Uhr +++
Brüssel drückt bei Maastricht ein Auge zu
Wegen der Finanzmarktkrise will die EU-Kommission bei der Anwendung des EU-Stabilitätspakts Milde walten lassen. Brüssel rechnet für 2009 in der Euro-Zone mit einem Wachstum von 0,2 Prozent. FTD.de protokolliert die bewegenden Ereignisse der Finanzkrise.
12.31 Wegen der Finanzmarktkrise will die EU-Kommission bei der Anwendung des EU-Stabilitätspakts Milde walten lassen. EU-Währungskommissar Joaquín Almunia sagte in Brüssel, bei einer Überschreitung der Neuverschuldungsgrenze von drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) sollten die EU-Staaten länger als ein Jahr Zeit bekommen, ihr Haushaltsdefizit zu korrigieren. Diesen mit der Reform des Stabilitätspakt im Jahr 2005 eingeführte Spielraum "muss man jetzt nutzen angesichts der wirtschaftlichen Lage", sagte Almunia. Nach der von der Kommission vorgestellten Konjunkturprognose werden in diesem Jahr Irland, Malta und Rumänien die Drei-Prozent-Marke reißen. Auch Großbritannien und Ungarn, gegen die bereits Defizitverfahren laufen, verstießen weiter gegen den Stabilitätspakt.
12.17 Der ungarische Ministerpräsident Ferenc Gyurcsany hat die Schaffung eines Stabilisierungsfonds im Umfang von 1000 Mrd. Forint (3,8 Mrd. Euro) vorgeschlagen. "Über die Finanzkrise sind wir im wesentlichen hinweg", sagte er im Budapester Parlament. "Aber wir blicken einer sich hinziehenden Wirtschaftskrise entgegen, für die wir Vorkehrungen treffen müssen". Ungarn war von der globalen Finanzkrise besonders hart getroffen worden. Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) und die Europäische Union (EU) hatten vergangene Woche einen Kreditrahmen von 20 Mrd. Euro für Ungarn angekündigt und das Land damit praktisch vor dem Bankrott gerettet.
11.55 Der Drei-Monats-Euribor fiel von 4,76 auf 4,73 Prozent. Damit verzeichnet der Wert seinen niedrigsten Stand seit April dieses Jahres. Der Ein-Wochen-Euribor stieg leicht an und kletterte von 3,81 auf 3,83 Prozent. Die Sechs-Monats-Rate fiel von 4, 8 auf 4,7 Prozent. Der Euribor gibt an, inwiefern Banken dazu bereit sind, sich gegenseitig Geld zu leihen.
11.40 Die EU-Kommission schließt wegen der schweren Finanzkrise eine Rezession in Europa nicht aus. "Die Aussichten für die Wirtschaft sind so düster wie das Wetter heute in Brüssel", sagte EU-Wirtschafts- und Währungskommissar Joaquin Almunia. "Rezession ist ein echtes Risiko." Diese Gefahr sei auch der Grund für den EU-weiten Aktionsplan zur Unterstützung der Konjunktur, den die EU-Kommissio
03 November 2008
China and Russia Moving Away from the US Dollar?
The headline of this news piece greatly overstates the extent of any deal between Russia and China to stop using dollars. It seems to be a bilateral trading agreement. But it is credible since Russia and China have mutual trading interests that do not involve dollars; Russia is rich in resources and China is strong in manufacturing. Choosing to trade in the rouble makes sense, especially as China remains under currency controls.
It would be even more interesting if they chose some neutral currency such as the euro or even gold and silver since that would invite other countries to join in more readily, especially in the mideast and AsiaPac. We recall that both Russia and China have signficant supplies of each of the metals. They might even fix a ratio of value between them, perhaps 16:1? There seems to be an historical precedent.
They are not renouncing dollars overall. But watch for this to become a trend as the US continues to prove that it is no longer capable of managing the world's reserve currency alone.
China, Russia, Belarus Renounce the US Dollar?
by Anatoly Gorev
RIA Novosti - 2008-10-30
The recent meeting between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, created a financial sensation. Wen said that the two nations could withstand the global financial crisis if they joined forces; Putin urged him to go farther and stop using U.S. dollars in Russian-Chinese settlements.
This idea is nothing new. Russia and China reached a "framework" agreement in November 2007, which was followed by China's similar agreement with Belarus.
Earlier this year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez turned against the dollar as well when they asked their OPEC partners to stop using the dollar for oil settlements. They argued that the "green" currency was no longer reliable and it was high time they look for a more stable and predictable alternative. (No one has followed them yet it should be noted, and the dollar has strengthened remarkably - Jesse)
Curiously, unlike the Ahmadinejad and Chavez appeal, Putin's proposal came as the dollar was on the rebound and even began pushing the euro. Economists even started talking in terms of a reversal of the global currency trends, rather than the temporary appreciation of the dollar.
Analysts predict that the dollar will regain its value in the next few months. They do not see anything which could hinder its steady growth.
Yet, Putin proposed that Russia and China stop using it as a settlement instrument. What is it - lack of confidence in the dollar's prospects or a political move? (The dollar has proven to be unstable, and the US preoccupied with its own internal troubles. The dollar is not a substitute for an external standard - Jesse)
Experts differ on this count. Igor Nikolayev, chief strategic analyst at FBK private auditing firm, sounded skeptical: "I think it was a political statement rather than an economic decision. There is a dominant public sentiment that the United States is the source of all evil, so let's stop using the dollar," he explained. (It was political, but it is also a warning and a preface to the November 15 meeting in Washington - Jesse)
One has to bear in mind, though, that some other currency will need to be found to replace the dollar for international settlements. China is unlikely to use the ruble, and Russia would be equally reluctant to accept the yuan. (The rouble would be more viable if it was backed by gold - Jesse)
"They could opt for the euro, but its future is uncertain, especially considering current developments on global financial markets. It is also unclear whether China would be happy to start using the euro while most of its international reserves are held in dollars," he added. (The euro has the same drawbacks as the dollar; it is too vulnerable to domestic policy priorities - Jesse)
There are more questions than answers here, Nikolayev concluded.
To be objective, one has to admit that other analysts are not as skeptical about the possibility of using other currency units between Russian and Chinese companies. (The use of gold and silver between these two countries seems logical if the trade can be 'balanced.' - Jesse)
Andrei Marinchenko, director general of the Kalita-Finance company, said the idea was quite realistic. Moreover, he thinks that the ruble stands a good chance of being selected as a reserve currency, primarily because the Chinese are disappointed in the dollar but aren't yet accustomed to the euro. (Yes but the rouble has a limited reach among other countries that do not wish to trade one empire for another - Jesse)
Only time will show who is right. But to stop using the dollar in Russian-Chinese settlements is too important a decision to make for purely political reasons - that much is obvious. (We're shocked it lasted as long as it did. It makes absolutely no sense to cede that much power to someone whose interests are not aligned with your own - Jesse)
Suppose we do it; what will be the implications for Russian businesses, how will the new financial and political reality affect their incomes and savings?
Marinchenko is convinced of a beneficial impact. According to Marinchenko, once the ruble is recognized as a settlement unit, it will enjoy growing demand with Chinese companies and individuals. The Russian currency will consequently grow stronger and more influential globally. (Its nice to dream, but there is an obvious flaw that needs to be resolved as we noted. Russia is no more stable nor trustworthy than the US for certain Physical gold and silver are beyond the control of a single country. - Jesse)
Russia will also become immune to many shocks from stock market meltdowns and won't have to fear future devaluation or revaluation of the ruble. It will happen because the role of the U.S. dollar, which has earned a reputation as an unstable and unreliable currency lately, will be much less important. (They are not able to do that now for certain. This highlights the risks of a single currency as the world's reserve currency. It is amazing that it has held together for as long as it has. - Jesse)
Posted by Jesse at 1:10 PM :verbeug
02 November 2008
Goldman Set to Payout All of Its US Bailout in Bonuses
1. Marked by flagrant and insolent audacity.
2. Impudent, immodest, or shameless.
3. Unrestrained by convention or propriety.
Posted by Jesse at 3:01 PM :verbeug
UN calls for sweeping new "Bretton Woods" system
October 30, 2008
UNITED NATIONS—Diplomats and economists are pressing for new global financial rules, seeking an update of the World War II-era system created at New Hampshire's Bretton Woods.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz of Columbia University told the U.N. General Assembly that "this is a global crisis and it requires a global response."
U.N. General Assembly President Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann convened a debate on the global financial meltdown to position the world organization squarely at the center of a possible fix.
Development economist and former U.N. official Sakiko Fukuda-Parr of the New School said that "global solutions are needed."
At the 1944 Bretton Woods conference of major powers in New Hampshire, the U.S.-led negotiations spawned the two major sister U.N. institutions, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
We’ll here goes another one.Circut city closing stores
-> Posted by goldielocks @ 23:32 pm on November 3, 2008
ATLANTA (Reuters) - Circuit City Stores Inc said it would close 155 U.S. stores and was considering all options to restructure in the face of a deteriorating cash position and tighter credit terms from vendors.
The store closures will help to give the No. 2 U.S. consumer electronics chain more time to participate in the holiday shopping season, but analysts said the company could still seek bankruptcy protection in the next few months.
“I think at this point they should be able to get through December,” Anthony Chukumba, an analyst with FTN Midwest Securities, said after the closures were announced on Monday.
“We could see additional store closings and/or a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing after the holidays,” he said.
Wow with things to come seems like these stores would come in handy
-> Posted by goldielocks @ 0:09 am on November 4, 2008
‘99 Cents Only Stores’ Closing Doors In Texas
NEW YORK (CBS 11 News / AP) ― Discount retailer 99 Cents Only Stores says it will leave the Texas market, closing 48 stores because operations are unprofitable.
The company said it will focus on its 230 remaining stores, which are in California, Arizona and Nevada. Those stores bring approximately 90 percent of its total revenue. 99 Cents Only Stores said stores in the “very challenging” Texas market were generating about half the revenue of its stores in other states.
The company said its Texas stores lost $15 million, or 15 cents per share, in the year ended June 28, while bringing in $120 million in revenue. It said the closures will cost $40 million to $45 million.
On Sept. 8, 99 Cents Only Stores said it will raise prices for the first time ever, citing inflation. Prices will go to 99.99 cents, from 99 cents.
4. November 2008
Förster merci :)
03 November 2008
The Next Bubble: Treasury Borrowing for Quarter to be $408 Billion More Than Expected
A tsunami of reserve currency debt issuance, coming soon to an economy near you.
Treasury expects to borrow record $550 billion
By Rex Nutting
3:00 p.m. EST Nov. 3, 2008
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government is expected to borrow a record $550 billion in the current quarter, including $260 billion in special funding for the Federal Reserve's extraordinary liquidity programs, the Treasury Department said Monday.
The borrowing estimate is $408 billion more than estimated three months ago. For the first three months of 2009, the government is expected to borrow $368 billion, the government said.
In the three months ending September, the government borrowed $530 billion. The Treasury will announce on Wednesday the sizes and terms of its quarterly refunding auction.
$900 billion in gov't borrowing seen through March
Goverment, raising cash for rescue, projects borrowing of more than $900 billion through March
November 03, 2008: 6:23 PM EST
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - The government, raising cash to pay for the array of financial rescue packages, said Monday it plans to borrow $550 billion in the last three months of this year --- and that's just a down payment.
Treasury Department officials also projected the government would need to borrow $368 billion more in the first three months of 2009, meaning the next president will confront an ocean of red ink.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget estimates all the government economic and rescue initiatives, starting with the $168 billion in stimulus checks issued earlier this year, total even more -- an eye-popping $2.6 trillion.
One day before voters set out to elect the 44th president, new economic reports brought more bad news...
In addition to the borrowing numbers, Treasury released estimates by major Wall Street bond firms projecting that total borrowing for this budget year, which began Oct. 1, will total $1.4 trillion, nearly double the previous record.
Major Wall Street firms were equally pessimistic about the size of the federal deficit this year. They projected it will hit $988 billion for the current budget year, more than twice the record. In July, the administration projected a deficit for this year of $482 billion, but that was before the financial crisis erupted in September.
Supporters of the government rescue packages argue that the ultimate cost to taxpayers should end up being a lot smaller, partly because the Federal Reserve is extending loans to banks that should be paid back.
And in the case of the $700 billion rescue package, the government is buying assets - either bank stock or distressed mortgage-backed assets _ that it hopes will rebound in value once the crisis has passed.
But the government still needs to borrow massive amounts to buy the assets, an effort that has driven up borrowing costs to levels never before contemplated....
Posted by Jesse at 9:08 PM :verbeug
Mon 3 Nov 2008
The Circus Is In Town
Posted by alyx under Uncategorized
(thx Carolyn for the image!)
Jason was smart enough to go on vacation during the denouement of American election season, which leaves me alone to cover the subject. As such, I’ve mostly avoided it (except for the armfuls of mailings and bevy of robo-calls I’m subjected to on a daily basis, living in a swing state and all). Fortunately, tomorrow it’s over, unless it turns out like the 2000 election with recounts and judges and other similar nonsense. Do not want.
If neither candidate for President is appealing enough to get you out to the polls and you don’t want to consider this a mandate on your Congresspersons who voted for or against the bailout (hint: here is the House roll call), don’t forget that your “I Voted” sticker will get you a host of benefits tomorrow: free ice cream at Ben n’ Jerrys, free drip coffee at Starbucks and a free chicken sandwich at Chick-fil-A. Who says there’s no such thing as a free lunch?
Also, if you live in South Dakota, you can vote to usurp the SEC and allow the state to prosecute naked short sellers. If that passes, I know where Patrick Byrne* is moving after the election.
Byrne has recently become known for his campaign against naked short selling, a practice which he says has been used in violation of securities law to hurt the price of his and other companies' stock. Under his direction, Overstock.com has filed two lawsuits alleging improper acts by Wall Street firms, a hedge fund, and an independent research firm.
Release Date: November 4, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday alerted the public to instances of questionable solicitations directed at consumers. These solicitations promise consumers access to personal loans through a nonexistent Federal Reserve lending program. :eek:eek:eek:hihi
Under this fraudulent scheme, targeted individuals are told that that they can work through a broker to access a Federal Reserve program that extends sizable secured loans to consumers. Consumers are encouraged to deposit large sums of money into a bank account, under the guise of a security deposit, in order to receive the purported loan.:rolleyes
The Federal Reserve is advising consumers that it has no involvement in these solicitations and does not directly sponsor consumer lending programs.:rolleyes The matter has been referred to the appropriate authorities for action.
Consumers are strongly urged to verify the legitimacy of potential service providers before entering into a business transaction. Individuals seeking personal finance options are encouraged to do business only with reputable lenders and to shop around for the most favorable loan terms.
Consumers with questions about solicitations that they suspect may be fraudulent are encouraged to contact the Federal Reserve Board Consumer Help Center at http://www.federalreserveconsumerhelp.gov or by calling 1-888-851-1920.
....als ob sich die FED um die Menschen kümmerte :o jedes Kind weiss doch, dass nur "befreundete" Institutionen in diesen Genuss kommen :bad
Tue 4 Nov 2008
The Main Street Bailout Scam
Posted by alyx under fail
Ben Bernanke’s Payday Loan Shack? No, not yet, anyway. However, apparently enough people are falling for a scam consumer bailout to necessitate a Federal Reserve press release
Come on, we all know that unless you’ve filled out the paperwork to register yourself as a bank holding company, you aren’t going to get any money from the Fed. The other tipoff should be that the scammers requested actual cash as a deposit. If they’d requested upside-down mortgages, an AMC Gremlin and your non-winning scratch-off lottery tickets, it would have been much more believable (if nowhere near as lucrative).
IMF Bailout of the US
Darryl Robert Schoon
Posted Nov 4, 2008
Modern economics is not rocket science. Modern economics is a fraud. Metrics such as "monetary aggregates" and the "velocity of money" are merely devices meant to divert attention away from the fraud in progress......
......The major holders of US treasuries - China, Japan, Russia, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurance companies and investors - will soon discover is that the US is no more able to pay its $13 trillion of dollars of debt than sub prime borrowers can pay the $1.3 trillion dollars owed on sub prime mortgages........
AAA SUBPRIME US TREASURIES
DEMOCRATS - THE TAX AND SPEND PARTY
REPUBLICANS - THE TAX LESS AND SPEND MORE PARTY
.....Markets will only be free when the virus of bankers' debt-based paper money is permanently removed from commerce and the present tyranny of banker-controlled government is ended.
Darryl Robert Schoon - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/s...hoon110408.html
:eek :eek :eek http://goldtent.com/wp_gold/wp-cont...e_best_ever.wmv :eek :eek :eek
NY Fed hires former Bear Stearns chief risk officer
Tue Nov 4, 2008 9:29am EST
NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has hired the former chief risk officer of Bear Stearns Cos, Michael Alix, to advise on bank supervision, according to a release in the Fed's Web site.
Alix will serve as a senior advisor to William Rutledge in the Bank Supervision Group and his appointment is effective Nov. 3, according to the release dated Oct. 31
At Bear Stearns, an investment bank that collapsed in March and has become hallmark of the global credit crisis, Alix served as chief risk officer from 2006 to 2008 and global head of credit risk management from 1996 to 2006.
Before that, he spent eight years at Merrill Lynch & Company (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
:rolleyes sehr erfolgreich war er ja wohl bei Bear Sterns nicht - scheint zu reichen für NY Fed :rolleyes
Never Fear, BIS is Here...
The Irish gnome checks in from Heidi-land:
…and these are the guys supposedly supervising the whole Global Casino!What would it take to shake these bureaucrats up? A direct meteor impact on their refreshments table? Or a downgrade to economy class?
Posted by Jesse at 12:00 PM :verbeug
Tue 4 Nov 2008
But I Want It NOW!
Posted by alyx under links
I was out on the west coast last month, and one of the most amusing things I saw was the disclaimer on Oregon’s lottery billboards. “Lottery games should not be played for investment purposes.” O RLY? Considering that at the time the Dow looked like it was going to zero, the lottery didn’t seem like that bad of an idea, even though it’s just like any other investment approach that involves little to no strategy and a desire for instant gratification.
My corollary link of the day: this piece from Information Arbitrage on the ineptitude of quick fixes like TARP and our total unwillingness to endure pain, and the moral hazard and futility of quick fixes. Here’s hoping the next administration keeps this in mind.
Tue 4 Nov 2008
American Elections, Now With 100% More Talking Head Action
Posted by alyx under cnbc
How many talking heads does it take to rebalance a portfolio out of the defense sector and into alternative energy and infrastructure? Ten, apparently.
.....die müssten wohl etwas umdenken :rolleyes :hihi
Finishing Our Work
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: November 4, 2008
And so it came to pass that on Nov. 4, 2008, shortly after 11 p.m. Eastern time, the American Civil War ended, as a black man — Barack Hussein Obama — won enough electoral votes to become president of the United States.
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
Thomas L. Friedman
.......How did Obama pull it off? To be sure, it probably took a once-in-a-century economic crisis to get enough white people to vote for a black man. And to be sure, Obama’s better organization, calm manner, mellifluous speaking style and unthreatening message of “change” all served him well.
But there also may have been something of a “Buffett effect” that countered the supposed “Bradley effect” — white voters telling pollsters they’d vote for Obama but then voting for the white guy. The Buffett effect was just the opposite. It was white conservatives telling the guys in the men’s grill at the country club that they were voting for John McCain, but then quietly going into the booth and voting for Obama, even though they knew it would mean higher taxes......(so war Buffett mal auch für was anderes gut ausser für die Brieftasche ;))
......Obama will always be our first black president. But can he be one of our few great presidents? He is going to have his chance because our greatest presidents are those who assumed the office at some of our darkest hours and at the bottom of some of our deepest holes......
......Bush & Co. did not believe that government could be an instrument of the common good. They neutered their cabinet secretaries and appointed hacks to big jobs. For them, pursuit of the common good was all about pursuit of individual self-interest. Voters rebelled against that. But there was also a rebellion against a traditional Democratic version of the common good — that it is simply the sum of all interest groups clamoring for their share.......
......None of this will be easy. But my gut tells me that of all the changes that will be ushered in by an Obama presidency, breaking with our racial past may turn out to be the least of them. There is just so much work to be done. The Civil War is over. Let reconstruction begin.
full story: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/o...Friedman&st=cse
....Obama sollte sich das Vorbild Herakles nehmen ;):hihi
merci @Sit :)
05.11.2008 , 12:31 Uhr
Spekulation über Steuermilliarden
AIG kommt immer mehr ins Gerede
von Rolf Benders
Der weltgrößte Versicherers AIG will weiterhin nicht offenlegen, wie er die 123-Milliarden-Dollar-Unterstützung aus Steuergeldern verwendet. Das nährt Spekulationen. Experten fürchten, dass AIG mit den Steuermilliarden Nachforderungen aus Sicherheiten bezahlt und das Geld verbraucht ist, bevor AIG sich retten kann.
Geheimniskrämerei bei AIG nährt Spekulationen über die finanzielle Situation des Versicherers. Foto: AP
NEW YORK. Wie ein Damoklesschwert hängt die Krise des weltgrößten Versicherers AIG über dem US-Finanzsystem. Mit über 123 Mrd. Dollar wurde der Riese aus Steuermitteln stabilisiert. Doch weil der Konzern die Verwendung der Mittel nicht offenlegt, wird befürchtet, dass das Geld bislang zur Absicherung bestehender Geschäfte bei Geschäftspartnern und nicht zur Lösung des Problems verwandt wurde.
„Wenn die Staatshilfe nicht neu strukturiert wird, wird der amerikanische Steuerzahler vermutlich große Verluste erleiden“, schrieb Ex-AIG-Chef und Aktionär Maurice Greenberg zuletzt an das Management und forderte es zur Offenlegung der Mittelverwendung auf. Dies lehnte AIG im Vorfeld des für Montag angesetzten Quartalsberichts ab. Am Kapitalmarkt stiegen daher in den vergangenen Tagen die Kosten für eine Versicherung gegen eine AIG-Insolvenz deutlich an und signalisierten so wachsende Unruhe auch in der Finanzgemeinde.......
.....Washington fürchtet, die Steuermilliarden könnten für die Sicherheiten aufgebraucht sein, bevor AIG wie geplant Wertpapiere und Unternehmensteile verkaufen kann, um wieder zu gesunden. Deswegen forderte Charles Grassley, Senator und führendes Mitglied im Finanzausschuss Liddy in einem offenen Brief ultimativ auf, die Mittelverwendung offen zulegen.
Branchenexperte Oliver Schiff von Schiff's Insurance Observer fasst die Situation so zusammen. „Es geht nicht darum AIG zu retten, es geht darum das Finanzsystem zu retten. Aber im Augenblick weiß keiner, ob dies gelingt.“
:bad ...was der eins gelogen und betrogen hat :mad
....für die Bücher ;)
AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200
In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 4, 2008
Dow... 9,625.28 +305.45 (+3.17%)
Nasdaq... 1,780.12 +53.79 (+3.12%)
S&P 500... 1,005.75 +39.45 (+4.08%)
Gold future... 757.30 +30.50 (+4.03%)
30-Year Bond 4.22% -0.10 (-2.29%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.77% -0.14 (-3.56%)
...eine kleine Träumerei für die Zukunft :)
04.11.2008 - Müllers Welt
Amerika hat noch nicht verstanden
Von Henrik Müller
Wirtschaftskrise, Schuldenberge, Kriegsmüdigkeit – der nächste Präsident wird ein Land der dramatisch begrenzten Möglichkeiten führen müssen. In aller Konsequenz hat das in den USA bislang kaum jemand verstanden. Wohin driften die USA? Diskutieren Sie mit!
Der Zorn des alten Mannes donnerte über die Papierberge hinweg: "Wir sind mitten drin in einer historischen Wende. Dieses Land verliert seine Position – ökonomisch, politisch, finanziell, kulturell." Michael Metz, der Chefstratege des Investmenthauses Oppenheimer, war aufgebracht.
Es war neun Uhr morgens, an einem Freitag im September 2007, als ich ihm in seinem Büro an der Park Avenue in New York gegenübersaß. Metz war 79 Jahre alt. Er hatte schon viel gesehen, seit er Ende der 50er Jahre ins Finanzbusiness eingestiegen war. Nun, am Beginn der großen Finanzkrise, sah er in großer Klarheit voraus, was passieren würde: "Millionen von Menschen werden ihre Häuser verlieren", Banken würden in die Knie gezwungen, weil überall dieses "tödliche Zeug" (Subprime-Papiere) die Märkte verstopfe. So redete er, ein Mann, der keine Rücksichten mehr nehmen musste, der sich keine naiven patriotischen Illusionen mehr machen wollte: Amerika werde regiert von fundamentalchristlichen Schwachköpfen, es sei verstrickt in desaströse Kriege, bewohnt von einer Bevölkerung mit im Durchschnitt katastrophal niedrigem Bildungsniveau, ausgestattet mit einer Infrastruktur auf Dritte-Welt-Niveau …
Ich wollte das eigentlich nicht hören, damals. Nicht so radikal, nicht so pessimistisch. Ich mag Amerika. Und hatten uns die USA in der Vergangenheit nicht immer wieder aufs Neue positiv überrascht?
Aber Metz ließ kein Gegenargument gelten: Nein, nein, diese Gesellschaft spüle sich gerade selbst "die Kanalisation herunter". Mit dem Gespräch mit dem inzwischen leider verstorbenen Michael Metz begann ich einen Report über die Zukunft der USA, der in Heft 11 des manager magazins 2007 erschien. "Nach der Orgie war die Story überschrieben. Sie zeigte in vielen Facetten, dass die USA vor einer extrem schwierigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung stehe.....
ganzer Artikel: http://www.manager-magazin.de/unter...,588331,00.html
ein Kommentar: (...nicht ganz meine Ansicht, besonders das problemlos, aber trotzdem ;))
Solange ich nicht das Gegenteil sehe, glaube ich weiter, dass die US-Amerikaner auch diese - im wesentlichen von ihnen produzierte, weltweite Krise - als Erste überstanden haben, und dass unser seit fast 20 Jahren andauernder Niedergang sich weiter verstetigen wird. Ein Land, welches es schafft, den anderen Deppen dieser Welt Pakete mit wertlose Kredite nur dadurch zu verkaufen, dass sie ein buntes Schleifchen darum binden, wird jede Krise dieser Welt problemlos überstehen. Einfach nur deshalb, weil die anderen so schrecklich dämlich sind...
"It's gonna be a long walk home": Bruce Springsteen singt von einer Gesellschaft in ständigem Umbruch
05 November 2008
If history teaches us anything, it is that the assumptions, promises and priorities one makes before taking a new position are quickly adjusted to hard realities once the job is obtained.
New data is made available, things change, some priorities give way to practicalities.
Nevertheless we can often pick out key themes from a prospective candidate and hammer out general 'intentions.'
Obama is a more statist than libertarian, and young, and more oriented to the public than to the corporations. He is a consensus builder, but chooses among the alternatives available against his own priorities and principles when the going gets tough. This is often the basis of a self-made man whose charecter has been hammered and tempered by adversity.
He is a strong organizer and knows how to play the game.
He faces a daunting task and expectations are high. He must prioritize heavily and reset expectations to what can be done first, and what can be attempted over time. There will be window-dressing, and genuinely effective efforts.
He is extremely intelligent, a quick study, and will benefit from a sincere alarm among highly capable men and women concerning the state of the country, which is more dire than most realize.
The vultures are swarming, and promises of kingdoms on earth are being whispered in his ear.
Those too lazy to think will retreat into cynicism, surmise, sarcasm and rumour, as they always do.
There will be a brief period of good will and allowance, and then the examination of Obama will be harsher, and more critical, and often probably unrealistic.
There will be a strong minority that will be quick to condemn and attempt to block all change. They would like him to fail, and badly, to justify their own prejudice and self-interest.
He will disappoint many, in many ways, including Le Propriétaire here at the Cafe. How can it be otherwise? He is only a man, facing some of the toughest choices presented to a new president taking office in war and economic crisis. Truman and FDR rose to the task. So did another Illinois Senator with only one term under his belt when he took office: Abraham Lincoln.
He could fail, he could succumb to partisan corruption, he could not only disappoint but fail to deliver on the promise of change for any number of reasons. John F. Kennedy was the fist Catholic ever elected president. Most now have forgotten the concern and a general fear this caused among the same groups and the elite that also fear Obama. Kennedy and his brother took on an embedded element of corruption that was pervasive in the country, and they both paid for it with the greatest sacrifice.
We cannot know what will happen, we do not know if and how he might rise to this terrible occasion, but we do know that we will not agree with everything he does, and may even become as bitterly disappointed with him as we were with George W. Bush after his first term in office. We hope not, for his failure will be our collective misfortune.
But for our own sake and those of the people of the US, we do sincerely wish him well, and would do anything to help to secure our national welfare from the dangers we now face, and those which are yet to appear.
So, taken in that context, here are the priorities in the president-elect's own words.
"Let us remember that if the financial crisis has taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers,” he said in his speech Tuesday night. “In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people.”
Obama from his debate transcript: "We're going to have to prioritize, just like a family has to prioritize. Now, I've listed the things that I think have to be at the top of the list."The deepest, the only theme of human history, compared to which all others are of subordinate importance, is the conflict of skepticism with faith." J. W. von Goethe
And, we might add, the conflicet between the obligation of duty and a retreat into self-absorption and despair.
Posted by Jesse at 10:30 AM :verbeug
Wed 5 Nov 2008
Proof You Can Get Hired No Matter What Is On Your Resume
Posted by alyx under bear stearns
Can you think of a man who can better manage risk than the former Chief Risk Officer of an overleveraged bank that collapsed into itself? Apparently the Fed can’t, because on Halloween, they hired Michael Alix, the Chief Risk Officer from Bear Stearns, as a bank regulation adviser at the New York Fed (thx to Allen Short for the link).
See any problems there?
The appointment goes to the heart of a growing problem that has cropped up along with the myriad rescue efforts aimed at reviving the financial system: few people actually know what was in the risky mortgage bonds that brought the system to a halt.I cannot believe I had to call the LOLFed “Bear Stearns” tag out of retirement. It was off playing bridge with Jimmy Cayne somewhere.
Wed 5 Nov 2008
Another Round Of Layoffs?
Posted by alyx under fail
It’s not how green is your valley, but how pink is your slip. Coal In Your Stockings round-up from The Deal:
CNBC is reporting that Morgan Stanley could lay off 15% of its work force. The report also estimated that Goldman, Sachs & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. will likely have to lay off 10% to 15% of their employees. Goldman Sachs announced in October that it would cut 3,200 positions from its staff of 32,000. Barclays Capital is expected to dole out pink slips to 3,000 employees as part of its takeover of Lehman Holdings Brothers Inc. Some former Lehman employees are suing the bankrupt investment bank for violating the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Act, which requires 60 days advance notice in writing of a layoff.Apparently some at GS are finding out today. I know about half of you, dear readers, are in the industry, and I truly hope you will not need this information, but I did find out from Amazon Askville that you can get “crazy sales on scotch and hard stuff” from Warehouse Wines and Spirits on B’way in NYC.
Top 20 Credit Default Swaps Exposure Net Notional Basis
Thanks to Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed for putting this together from the DTCC Report.
Posted by Jesse at 8:08 AM :verbeug
France threatens to seize banks, German bail-outs escalate
The French state has threatened to seize control of the country's banks and fire top staff unless they do their part to stabilise the economy by stepping up lending to companies in need.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 3:11PM GMT 04 Nov 2008
"The banks have got to open up credit to business: they have the means to do it," said prime minister Francois Fillon, accusing lenders of hoarding cash. "We don't think the banks are stepping up to task as necessary. We can withdraw the credit that we have extended to them under the state's contract with the banks, and that will put them in difficulty. At that moment the question arises whether we should take an equity stake, change their managers, and assume control over their strategy."
Speaking on French television, he warned: "Broadly speaking, we'll be able to judge over the next 10 days whether they are playing the game as they should, or not."
Under last month's rescue deal, banks agreed to raise lending to firms and households by 3pc to 4pc in exchange for a state injection of €10bn (£8bn) in fresh capital for the six largest banks, a modest sum compared to the bail-outs in Britain, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.
In Germany, HSH Nordbank – 59pc owned by the city of Hamburg and state of Schleswig-Holstein – rattled the markets yesterday by revealing that it would need €30bn in guarantees from Berlin's €500bn stabilisation fund. It warned that further sums may be need`ed to meet capital adequacy ratios in the future.
"We are not under time pressure and will be holding in-depth discussions with our stockholders as to the strategy to pursue,'' said Hans Berger, chief executive officer. The bank has had to write down €2.3bn over the last year, and suffered heavy losses from the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Commerzbank said it would seek a combined guarantee and capital boost of €23bn, while BayernLB will seek €5.4bn. The giant property lender Hypo Real Estate is the biggest casualty so far, needing €50bn.
In Austria, a mini-crisis continued to simmer yesterday as the state stepped in "with a few hundred million" to rescue Kommunalkredit, after the public lender said it was suffering a "liqudity squeeze". Austria's banks have heavy exposure to the debt crisis in Ukraine, Hungary and the Balkans.
Europe's banks are almost twice as leveraged as those in the US, according to the IMF. Many pursued a very aggressive lending strategy during the credit bubble. They account for the lion's share of cross-border loans to Latin America, Asia and the entire $1.6 trillion pool of loans to Eastern Europe. Matt King, credit strategist at Citigroup, says they have waited too long to face up to their losses and will need to raise $400bn in fresh capital in a hostile global climate.
mit Video ---> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...s-escalate.html
nur Video: http://link.brightcove.com/services...ctid=1896776755
...auch hier - eine lange Durststrecke vor uns :schwitz
Wed 5 Nov 2008
Drawing A Blank-fein
Posted by alyx under goldman sachs :bad
How are things going, Mr. Torrance? Rumor has it that in addition to the 10% layoffs at Goldman Sachs (GS), their CEO Lloyd Blankfein may be forfeiting his own bonus this year (source: Larry Kudlow’s blithering this evening on CNBC).
Last year, Lloyd took home a total of $68.5 million in cash and stock (in 2006, it was I think $53 mil total). Even though the stock obviously isn’t worth as much as it was a year ago, presumably he’s saved enough cash that he won’t have to line his pockets with Vienna sausages to smuggle home from the company party, even if he’s going to let his top talent eat cake at bonus time while he receives crumbs this year.
Wed 5 Nov 2008
Vikram Pandit, How Many Fingers Am I Holding Up?
Posted by alyx under all ur bankz
The answer is FOUR.
Above, The Bandit discusses with reporters how it feels to go from being the largest bank in market cap to the fourth-largest.
From Crains, the massive losses, slash-and-burn cost cutting and general tale of fail* about what’s going on at C right now:
“Citi no longer matters,” says Bill Smith, head of Smith Asset Management, a shareholder in and longtime critic of the bank. “It’s a black hole.”Even if we assume that morgtage losses are over and done with, C has a wealth of other problems, such as its credit card portfolio, its inability to pick up a smaller rival to shore up its deposits and Bandit’s persistent night terrors from which he wakes, screaming out “STAGECOACHES!” and in a cold sweat. I can’t call Citigroup’s move “from first to worst,” but I can call it “from top to slop,” I suppose.
* “Citi no longer matters,” says Bill Smith, head of Smith Asset Management, a shareholder in and longtime critic of the bank. “It's a black hole.”
.....um es mal etwas burschikos auszudrücken - alle in einen Sack und reintreten - man trifft immer den Richtigen :o
Moody’s cuts Ambac to Baa1
Baa1 - same rating it gave to Bear Stearns back in March :rolleyes The bonfire of the bond insurers continues apace.
From the Moody’s statement, emphasis ours:
Today’s rating action concludes a review for possible downgrade that was initiated on September 18, 2008, and reflects Moody’s
view of Ambac’s diminished business and financial profile resulting from its exposure to losses from US mortgage risks and disruption in the financial guaranty business more broadly. The outlook for the ratings is developing.
The downgrade results from four factors. First is Moody’s expectation of greater losses on mortgage related exposure. The company’s reported losses and related increases in loss reserves in the third quarter are broadly consistent with Moody’s current expectations. Second is the possibility of even greater than expected losses in extreme stress scenarios. Third is the company’s diminished business prospects. Fourth is the company’s impaired financial flexibility.
In its 3Q2008 earnings release, Ambac reported incurred losses of $608 million on financial guaranty policies, primarily related to direct RMBS exposures, and $2.5 billion of credit-related impairments on credit default swaps referencing ABS CDOs. The increase in loss reserves and credit impairments has resulted in a significant reduction in regulatory capital; at 3Q2008, Ambac’s policyholders’ surplus was approximately $1.1 billion and contingency reserves were approximately $3.4 billion.
Ambac’s insurance financial strength rating remains investment grade reflecting the rating agency’s view that Ambac’s aggregate resources(including statutory contingency reserves and contingent capital) provide a meaningful capital cushion above expected loss levels. Should Ambac’s regulatory capital position continue to deteriorate, there would be further negative pressure on the firm’s ratings.
:schwitz bis das alles ausgestanden ist :rolleyes
ozymandius (1000+ posts) Thu Nov-06-08 06:05 AM Response to Original message 7. Schadenfreude, anyone? News Corp. Falls as Ad Drop Cuts 2009 Profit Forecast (Update1)
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- News Corp., the media company controlled by Rupert Murdoch, plunged the most in Sydney trading since the 1987 stock market crash after cutting its 2009 profit forecast because of shrinking ad sales at its Fox stations and newspapers.
News Corp. sank A$3.40, or 21 percent, to close at A$12.50, the biggest decline since Oct. 20, 1987. In New York, the Class A shares lost 12 percent in extended trading.
Fiscal 2009 profit will drop in the ``low to mid teens'' in percentage terms, New York-based News Corp. said on a conference call after the U.S. stock market closed, citing falling advertising sales and the stronger dollar. The company previously forecast a gain of 4 percent to 6 percent.
Total TV revenue, including the Fox network, fell 15 percent to $974 million, as automakers cut spending 40 percent and the network lost viewers to NBC's Olympics coverage. Fox will finish the current television season as the most-watched U.S. network, President Peter Chernin said, citing the return of shows including ``24'' and ``American Idol.''
8. Not enough schadenfreude? How about this? Lehman Chief Fuld `Terminated' by Bankrupt Company (Update3)
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, who received $34.4 million in pay in 2007, will be ``terminated'' by the bankrupt company without any bonus, said a lawyer for Lehman.
``His employment will end at the end of the year,'' Harvey Miller, Lehman's lead bankruptcy lawyer, of Weil, Gotshal & Manges, said today during a break at a hearing in federal court in Manhattan. ``He is being terminated. He will receive no severance or bonuses.''
schadenfreude eines der in deutsch gebrauchten Worte :gruebel nicht eben schmeichelhaft :o aber vielleicht treffend :rolleyes
Max Keiser on Alex Jones Tv"Coming Boom in GOLD"1/3
....die Fragesteller sind teilweise etwas :rolleyes:schwitz aber man hört doch interessantes über die Zustände zB in NY - das war noch während der Wahlen - nebst dem Comex-Theater :rolleyes und etwas spezielle Ansichten über die Kandidaten :rolleyes
ALL IS WELL IN STEPFORDVILLE:
MORE ON THE PRE-ELECTION CHICANERY
OF THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM
Ellen Brown, November 3rd, 2008
“The Dow is a dead banana republic dictator in full military uniform propped up in the castle window with a mechanical lever moving the cadaver’s arm, waving to the Wall Street crowd.”
– Michael Bolser, Le Metropole Cafe
Thu 6 Nov 2008
BoE, ECB and Australia Get Out The Ax
Posted by alyx under markets
It’s a full round of rate cuts this morning, and it made the markets sad. BoE completely abandoned any plans to gradually step down, and slashed a full 150 basis points (1.5%) off their central bank’s interest rate:
“It looks like the Bank of England monetary policy committee has completed abandoned its policy of incremental changes. This is good decisive action. This decision is unprecedented and the market is going to be confused for a time by it,” said Jim Wood-Smith, head of research at Williams de Broe.Also on that side of the pond, publicly traded hedgie the Man Group (not to be confused with the Man Show, which was canceled in the US a few years ago, though I think everyone would prefer some girls on trampolines right about now) reported a massive drop in profits, sending their stock down about 30%. Expect redemptions, further declines in the market, etc, etc.
Australia followed up their full-point rate cut last month with a .75% rate cut today, and ECB got in on the party by bringing rates down a half point. And in an undisclosed location near the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke is sitting on his hands somewhere and making a very sad face, wishing he had some latitude between the current fed funds rate and zero so he could get in on the fun as well.
The Treatment of Bush Has Been a Disgrace: What must our enemies be thinking? Jeffrey Scott Shapiro, Wall Street Journal. This is the biggest piece of crap I have seen in a very very long time. This is a man who, among many other things, sanctioned TORTURE, and someone is upset that is being "disrespected" as they say in some circles? The article also has the temerity to draw analogies to Harry Truman, a President who took a lot of criticism, said, "If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen."
.......The treatment President Bush has received from this country is nothing less than a disgrace. The attacks launched against him have been cruel and slanderous, proving to the world what little character and resolve we :rolleyes (ob die nicht he has meinen :confused) have. The president is not to blame for all these problems. He never lost faith in America or her people, and has tried his hardest to continue leading our nation during a very difficult time :dumm (die difficult time hat er ja geschaffen :mad)
Our failure to stand by the one person who continued to stand by us has not gone unnoticed by our enemies. It has shown to the world how disloyal we can be when our president needed loyalty -- a shameful display of arrogance and weakness that will haunt this nation long after Mr. Bush has left the White House. :kopf :dumm
...mal schaun wie weit die loyalty für Präs. Obama reicht :rolleyes
06 November 2008
Credit Card Bond Sales Zero As the Credit Markets and Consumption Engines Stalls
Approaching our economic problems through crony capitalist bailouts of a few large banks (speculative investment banks by any other name) without reform is a policy error of the first order. Attempting to maintain the same unworkable status quo while doing nothing for the wage earners and the bulk of consumers is the curse of ideology and a financial sickness unto death.
BloombergCredit Card Bond Sales at Zero, First Time Since 1993
By Sarah Mulholland
Nov. 5 -- Credit card companies were shut out of the market for bonds backed by customer payments in October for the first time in more than 15 years, as investors shunned the debt amid the global credit freeze.
A weakening job market and a looming recession are making it harder for consumers to make monthly payments, eroding confidence among investors about the safety of credit-card-backed bonds. It's the first month since April 1993 that there have been no sales, according to Wachovia Corp. data. Issuers sold $17.1 billion of the debt in October 2007, the data show.
``Nobody is eager to put money to work given the uncertainty in the market,'' said James Grady, a managing director at Deutsche Bank AG's asset management unit. ``When you think it can't get worse, it continues to get worse. There is not a demand'' for these bonds.
Top-rated credit card-backed securities maturing in three years traded at a gap, or spread, of 475 basis points over the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, during the week ended Oct. 30, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show, 25 basis points higher than the previous week. The debt was trading at 50 basis points more than Libor in January.
The higher cost to sell the bonds makes it more expensive for banks and credit card companies to fund loans to customers. New York-based American Express Co. paid 160 basis points more than Libor at a Sept. 11 sale of the securities compared with 30 basis points over the benchmark at a similar sale in October 2007, Bloomberg data show.
Posted by Jesse at 11:07 AM :verbeug
Thursday, November 06, 2008
The media: back in the arms of the Republicans again
It isn't about being close to power after all, it's about the corporate interests of the media. You'd think that after Barack Obama's LANDSLIDE victory on Tuesday, the talking heads of the media would want to get on board with the new corridors of power. But you'd be wrong. Instead, the word "resounding" is used instead of "landslide", and fifteen minutes into "Morning Joe" today, they're falling all over themselves making sure America knows this isn't ANYTHING like Ronald Reagan's win in 1980. Of course it can't be. After all, Ronald Reagan was a Republican, who like the ancient Roman leaders, has become a god after his death. Barack Obama is not only a Democrat, but one whose "pigmentation is unseemly". He can't possibly have been elected with the same level of good will. That isn't in the corporate media playbook.Labels: hack journalism
THE STRANGE CASE OF FALLINGDuring the past 10 years, at least, I have been following the growth of International Reserves. The first graph I elaborated to show their growth was back in 1999 and it was based on IMF data up to 1997. Recently, I have been updating the graph using Alex Tanzi´s numbers. Alex works at Bloomberg and from time to time, Doug Noland at www.prudentbear.com quotes his numbers regarding International Reserves, excluding gold.
by Hugo Salinas Price
President, Mexican Civic Association Pro Silver
November 6, 2008
As of August 2008, as you can see from the graph, according to Alex Tanzi International Reserves were growing at the explosive annual rate of 26.5%. Suddenly, since August, Reserves have stopped growing.
In August, they were just under $7 trillion expressed in dollars, though “paper” Reserves are made up not only of dollars, but also euros, British pounds, Japanese Yen and a smaller quantity of some other currencies.....
.......The US is on track to incur a fiscal deficit of $1 Trillion, perhaps much more, in this fiscal year. If the International Reserves are not growing, that means it will be impossible to fund that deficit. That would mean: monetary inflation in spades, in the US.
I’ll leave you with this question: what is the significance of the drastic change in the growth-trend of International Reserves, from explosive growth, to the sudden beginning of a contraction?
I hope others, more competent than myself, address this question. I believe it is quite important that we have an authoritative answer to it.
full story: http://www.financialsense.com/edito.../2008/1106.html
eigentlich nur noch :schwitz angesagt :rolleyes
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