OPEC Agrees to Cut Production Quotas as Price Slumps (Update1)
By Maher Chmaytelli and Margot Habiby
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut oil production targets for the first time in almost two years to stem a collapse in prices.
OPEC decided to lower supply by 1.5 million barrels a day from November, oil ministers said today at the end of a meeting at the group's Vienna's headquarters. The reduction will be from the existing quota for 11 members of 28.8 million barrels a day.
``Demand is significantly less than what is being supplied, that is the reason the cut was taken,'' Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said after the meeting. Crude oil has tumbled 57 percent from a July 11 record of $147.27 a barrel as the financial market crisis spreads, job cuts increase and fuel consumption slows. Prices fell as much as 7.1 percent after the decision.....
vor 79 Jahren :schwitz
Three phrases - Black Thursday, Black Monday, and Black Tuesday - are used to describe this collapse of stock values. All three are appropriate, for the crash was not a one-day affair. The initial crash occurred on Black Thursday (October 24, 1929), but it was the catastrophic downturn of Black Monday and Tuesday (October 28 and 29, 1929) that precipitated widespread panic and the onset of unprecedented and long-lasting consequences for the United States. The collapse continued for a month.
Art Cashin :supi - the last Monday in October is a fine day to put in a bottom
S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Futures Reach `Limit Down' Level (Update2)
By Sarah Jones and Alexis Xydias
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 Index was limited until U.S. markets open to stop the contracts from extending losses of more than 6 percent today.
The S&P 500 futures will not trade below 855.20, the so- called limit down level this quarter, until U.S. regular trading begins at 9:30 a.m. New York time, said Jeremy Hughes, a London- based spokesman for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Dow Average futures won't trade below the 8,224 level, he said, while the Nasdaq 100 futures won't fall below 1,168.50. The ``limit down'' suspension allows the contracts to trade above those levels, he said....
I'm thinking about moving everything into another commodity. :supi:hihi
Larry Pesavento called for Dow 6000 today or Monday, a couple days ago:
HANG ON BOYS ITS GOING TO BE A ROUGH RIDE
....war (noch) kein richtiger wash-out wie ihn sich Art Cashin wünscht :rolleyes:(
...nur wenn ich mir das da unten angucke :schwitz
Zitat von ctt
Moin ;) ,
Ob er jetzt aber nach oben dreht....:rolleyes Das ging mir bissl zu schnell, muss ich sagen, meine Zeitrechnung braucht noch ca. 12 Monate.
masta of kiboard
gefällt mir.....auch mit den 12 monaten bis 2200-2600 kann ich leben.......
JP Morgan Chase chief Dimon sent death threats
The US Postal Inspection Service has offered a $100,000 (£62,000) reward for information after Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan Chase bank, was sent death threats.
By Tom Leonard in New York
Last Updated: 10:44PM BST 23 Oct 2008
Jamie Dimon and various outlets of his bank – one of America's biggest - were targeted in at least 45 anonymous, typewritten letters which all seem to be from the same source.
The sender accused Mr Dimon of stealing Washington Mutual, whose banking operation was bought by JP Morgan Chase last month.
"You need to be pay back. You will be killed in 10 days," one of the typewritten letters read, investigators told ABC News.....
full story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...th-threats.html
:eek ich sag lieber nix :rolleyes
Fri 24 Oct 2008
BREAKING NEWS: More Talking Heads Will Make The Market Better
Posted by alyx under breaking news , cnbc
There seems to be an inverse relationship between the performance of the DOW and the number of talking heads CNBC tries to fit on one screen. Back when the market was doing well, you’d have one commentator, maybe one guest in a split screen, nothing hardcore. These days, you see so many people on your television it’s a wonder any of them can get a word in.
...ausser Rick Santelli (obere Reihe ganz rechts) so ziemlich alle blablabla....
In other news, Hank Paulson has picked up a coke habit to cope with the crisis:
„Stellt den Schwellenländern Liquidität zur Verfügung“
Hans Redeker, Währungsstratege der BNP Paribas
24. Oktober 2008 Am Devisenmarkt werten Yen, Dollar und Schweizer Franken stark auf. Die japanische Währung fiel am Freitag gegen den Dollar auf bis zu 90,93 Yen und der Euro fiel bis auf 1,2496 Dollar sowie auf 1,4416 Franken im Tagestief.
Im Moment hätten Banken und Unternehmen aus Schwellenländern keinen Zugang zu Liquidität in harten Währungen und liquidierten aus diesem Grund Positionen an den Börsen und Rohstoffmärkten, erklärt Hans Redeker.......
......Wäre es geldpolitisch nicht riskant, den Schwellenländern die Liquidität anzubieten?Ich kann die Zentralbanken und ihre Bedenken verstehen. Denn mit Devisen-Swap-Vereinbarungen mit den Schwellenländern verlören sie die Kontrolle über wesentliche Teile des Geldangebots. Aber im Moment geht es primär darum, deflationäre Tendenzen abzuwehren. Auf die Folgen kann man sich später konzentrieren.
Wo laufen die Währungen kurzfristig hin? Immerhin sind die Bewegungen im Moment dramatisch?
Wenn wir weiterhin falsche Signale bekommen, wird der Kurs des Euro gegen den Yen auf 105 fallen, der Euro wird gegen den Dollar im laufenden Quartal auf 1,17 und im kommenden auf 1,07 Dollar fallen und die japanische Währung wird gegen den Dollar auf 88 Yen im ersten Quartal des kommenden Jahres fallen.......
Jim Rogers: Inflation down the road
:nw Volumen auch nicht besonders :rolleyes
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dlr - China paper
10.24.08, 1:59 AM ET
United States - BEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday. The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said.
The People's Daily is the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party. The Chinese-language overseas edition is a small circulation offshoot of the main paper......
....."The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realise that the United States has used the U.S. dollar's hegemony to plunder the world's wealth," said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai's Tongji University......
ful story: http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds...-CRITICISM.html
....die Chinesen scheinen langsam doch die Nase voll zu haben :confused:rolleyes
....der neue "Guru" Roubini stay away from almost everything.....
Roubini Says Stay Away from `Risky' Assets, U.S. Dollar
Excerpts from the October, 2008 Issue of EGS
It’s the downward spiral of mankind
Well, September certainly proved up to its reputation as the “cruelest month” alright (the title of our last Issue). And October is following suit.
Now, I really want to be an optimist. And it’s my natural inclination to be a contrarian, to buy stocks when fear is high and prices are low. And given the massive movement down in the markets in just a few months, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a multi-week or multi-month counter rally starting anytime. Longer term though - I believe there is a strong case to be made for something far more seriously negative lying ahead - something between an orderly, Japanese style depression if we’re lucky - or the beginning of a new Dark Ages if we’re not. There are four undeniable reasons for this:
1. The Credit Bubble implosion
This was after all, the largest debt bubble in history of mankind and it isn’t going to be resolved overnight. The closest historical parallel - the Japanese real estate bubble, has taken more than 18 years to resolve. And given the bailout tactics being employed by the powers that be - there is no reason to believe this one should resolve itself anytime soon either.......
Why Democracies Fail
This is by no means a new theory. At about the time America’s original 13 states adopted their new Constitution, in the year 1787, Alexander Tyler* (a Scottish history professor at The University of Edinburgh) had this to say about “The Fall of The Athenian Republic” some 2,000 years prior:
“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to lose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship.”
“The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to selfishness
From selfishness to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage”
*(There is some uncertainty as to who actually made this quote. But it doesn’t matter who said it, as it presents a great truth about the cyclical nature of human behavior over the ions. And doesn’t it sound all too familiar, especially the part about “loose fiscal policy”?).....
full story: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorial...ette102408.html
From The Times
October 25, 2008
US taxpayers may have to dig deeper for AIG
Tom Bawden in New York
American International Group (AIG), the struggling insurer, has already used up three quarters of a $123 billion (£78 billion) rescue loan from the US Government and has given warning that the bailout may not be enough :dumm to save it.
The Government swooped in to rescue AIG from meltdown last month by extending to it an $85 billion loan, in exchange for a 79.9 per cent stake in the group. On October 8, the Government authorised a second cash infusion, this time of $37.8 billion, as it emerged that AIG had spent most of the first loan........
....wohl noch einige LuxusFährtlein in petto :mad :bad
Ever think the “Illuminati”
October 25th, 2008 would be mentioned on CNBC? By a respected analyst no less.
Russian default risk tops Iceland as crisis deepens
Russia's financial crisis is escalating with lightning speed as foreigners pull funds from the country and the debt markets start to price a serious risk of sovereign default.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 5:50PM BST 24 Oct 2008
Russia's financial crisis is escalating with lightning speed as foreigners pull funds from the country and the debt markets start to price a serious risk of sovereign default.
The cost of insuring Russian bonds against bankruptcy rocketed to extreme levels yesterday. Spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) reached 1,123, higher than Iceland's debt before it sought a rescue from the International Monetary Fund.....
.....Kingsmill Bond, chief strategist at Russian investment bank Troika Dialog, said Russia's Achilles Heel is the lack of a proper rouble bond market. This had forced companies to raise half their money abroad, in foreign currencies.
"The consequence is that foreign debt repayment has had a dramatic impact. It has led to a scramble for assets and forced selling of good assets in order to raise cash to pay debt. The only way for oligarchs to raise money at present is by selling their equity," he said. Russia's "unique fragility" is that over $1 trillion of debt needs to financed from a domestic capital pool of $600bn......
full story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ial-crisis.html
24 October 2008
Europe and Asia Seek a Consensus Ahead of Washington Meeting
Sounds as though a consensus is forming, without the United States, to set the agenda for the upcoming meeting in Washington on November 15.
One step closer to a world currency, and a world government.
Tonight I am sick at heart for the damage that has been done to the world over the last eight years. We have squandered the sacrifice of a generation.
ἐδάκρυσεν ὁ Ἰησοῦς
The Economic Times
Leaders call for new rules for financial system
25 Oct, 2008, 0644 hrs IST
BEIJING: Asian and European leaders agreed that the rules guiding the global economy should be rewritten and the International Monetary Fund should be given a lead role in aiding countries hit hardest by the financial crisis.
On a day when stock markets plunged around the world, leaders from nations including China, France, Germany and Japan said Friday that they were moving toward consensus ahead of next month's meeting of the 20 largest economies in Washington.
``Europe would like Asia to support our efforts and would like to make sure that on the 15th of November we can face the world together and say that the causes of this unprecedented crisis will never be able to happen again,'' French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in remarks to the opening ceremony of the Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing.
A draft of a meeting statement on the crisis seen by The Associated Press called on the IMF and similar institutions to act immediately to help stabilize struggling banks and staunch the flood of red ink on regional stock bourses.
``Leaders agreed that the IMF should play a critical role in assisting countries seriously affected by the crisis, upon their request,'' the draft said.
If adopted, the statement would be among the strongest calls yet for a leading role in the crisis for the Washington-based fund, long known as the international lender of last resort.
Countries as varied as Hungary, Ukraine, Iceland and Pakistan have already turned to the IMF for help bridging their liquidity crunches.
The draft statement also states that leaders agreed to ``undertake effective and comprehensive reform of the international monetary and financial systems.''
Among the first to publicly endorse the proposal was Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, head of the world's second-largest economy. Aso ``strongly supports'' a critical role for the IMF, Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kazuo Kodama said.
The biennial gathering, known as ASEM, has no mandate to issue decisions and participants differ widely on their views toward international cooperation and intervention by global bodies. Free-trading Singapore and economic powerhouse Germany are attending, along with isolated, impoverished Myanmar and landlocked, authoritarian Laos.
Responses to the crisis have varied widely so far. Europe has already approved a plan under which the 15 euro countries and Britain put up a total of $2.3 trillion in guarantees and emergency aid to help banks.
Asian financial systems are less shaky, having had less direct exposure to the toxic sub-prime mortgages that are wreaking havoc on US and European markets. Showing a notable lack of urgency, South Korea, China, Japan and the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations recommitted themselves to an $80 billion emergency fund to help those facing liquidity problems - to be established by next June.
China and other Asian economies are, however, expected to take a major hit from a drop in exports and foreign investment.
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed,
and everywhere the ceremony of innocence is drowned...
Posted by Jesse at 11:33 PM :verbeug
25 October 2008
Escape Velocity: Take it to the Limit One More Time
Escape velocity: in physics, the speed where the kinetic energy of an object is equal to the magnitude of its gravitational potential energy. It is commonly described as the speed needed to "break free" from a gravitational field without any additional impulse.On 26 September 2008 Adjusted Monetary Base Rises to Record Levels we noted that the Fed was putting pedal to the metal, boosting the monetary base to levels higher than 911.
Here's an update.
When this reaches escape velocity it could be something to see. The last two times the Fed hit the afterburners we had stock market rallies leading to impressive highs.
When the Fed puts on the brakes to stop the inflation, it might be even more impressive for those of you who were not around when Paul Volcker did his interest rate exercise in monetary restraint. Hint: zero coupons were a great buy at the top.
Posted by Jesse at 12:15 PM :verbeug
;) Young Hillary Clinton
....diese gegensätzlichen Ansichten :rolleyes:schwitz:gruebel man wird noch ganz meschugge :o
Heed the advice of The Smartest Man
October 25, 2008 at 6:00 AM EDT
Crackpot. Crank. Scaremonger. Alarmist.
The Smartest Man We Know has heard the slurs. When you make your living on Wall Street, yet hold the opinion that Wall Street is populated by incompetent fools, you're not going to win a lot of friends at dinner parties, are you?
And when you bet millions that the American financial system is going to fall apart, that its economy will be seized with fear – and when you were doing this and saying this before there was any hint of real trouble – well, you couldn't really expect other people to welcome the message, could you?
The Smartest Man, when delivering his prophesies, did not sugar-coat them. “This could potentially make Long-Term Capital [the financial crisis of 1998] look like some kind of walk in the park,” he predicted. “The reckoning has started.” No soft landing this time: It could even be “like the Great Depression of this century.” He said these things not last week, not last month, but on July 26, 2007. That day, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at 13,473.
But The Smartest Man was just getting warmed up. Checking in with him again this January, he was every bit as gloomy. By that point, credit fires were burning all over the place; the Dow was at 12,500; the world's biggest banks had been forced to turn, cap in hand, to Singapore, China, the Middle East and elsewhere for billions of dollars. It won't be enough, he said. “There's a whole bunch of companies that just have to hit the wall. They can't survive.”
What kind of companies? U.S. financial institutions, mostly. Wachovia looks bad. The major investment banks are shaky. It's about to get a lot uglier, warned The Smartest Man. “The implications of what's going on for the U.S. economy, credit, for lending over all, are not that pleasant to think of.” Two months and two days later, Bear Stearns was gone.
So you can imagine our surprise when the Smartest Man – his real name is Krishnamurthy Narayanan, and he goes by Nandu – showed up in town this week and was bullish.
“I think we're ending the financial crisis now,” he said. “There will be countries, like the U.S., that will go into recession. But this need not be a global recession. And there are some encouraging signs on that front.”
In a different era, The Smartest Man might have been a rocket scientist, or an engineer, or a medical researcher, or maybe a university professor. The academic résumé says: MBA, PhD in finance and economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, studied under Paul Krugman, who just won the Nobel prize for economics. But this is – or at least was – the age of finance, and The Smartest Man became a hedge-fund manager, placing money on his views rather than just writing them.
Lately, that has worked out rather well. His CI Global Opportunities Fund has returned 57 per cent in the past year, 19 per cent (compounded) over the past five. Nice numbers, but once you've made your money calling the credit crisis and short selling Washington Mutual, what do you do then?
You buy Canada, says Mr. Narayanan, who can't believe the way the loonie has been savaged. “The currency is ridiculously undervalued. I can't think of any country in the world that has no fiscal deficit, no trade deficit and no inflation – except Canada. I think the Canadian dollar should go through parity.
“I like the whole Canadian market. I don't particularly dig the banks because I just don't know what's in there [on the balance sheet]. But I'd say virtually everything else is fine.”
You buy some emerging markets, even though they, too, have collapsed in the meltdown. “You can't play the emerging markets by listening to the market action. If the Indian market's down 50 or 60 per cent from its peak, I can assure you nothing's really changed in India. Nothing's changed. The vast majority of people in India don't believe in the stock market,” said Mr. Narayanan, who was born in Chennai, India.
You look to the currencies of Asian countries that are growing and still financially healthy. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand all have trade surpluses and single-digit inflation. “Most of the Asian emerging markets and emerging currencies are ridiculously priced right now.”
You buy uranium stocks: “Ridiculously cheap.” Gold miners: “Ridiculously cheap.” Pipelines, too: “How bad a business is that? It's a fantastic business. You're just shipping gas. Why are people selling those?” Energy: “Unless there's an absolute collapse in oil demand, you really can't see oil plunge all that much [more].”
There are, however, some things The Smartest Man wouldn't touch. They happen to be the assets the investing masses have flocked to in this crisis: U.S. Treasuries and the greenback. “I don't think it can hold for that much longer.” Once the world has to absorb trillions of dollars in new U.S. debt – watch out. In fact, he thinks the odds of the U.S. having its own currency crisis are “at least 30 per cent.”
Would you want to bet against him?
...die enttäuschen nie - immer gleich zum :bad
...was kommt denn noch alles auf uns zu :confused:rolleyes:(:schwitz
-> Posted by soee @ 11:08 am on October 26, 2008
This is the most important news development of the week IMO. Something much bigger then US subprime - now coming out of left field.
Looming recession batters stocks
Credit crunch upsets 30-year rate swaps
Spreads at levels thought a ‘mathematical impossibility’
Looming recession batters stocks
By Michael Mackenzie in New York and Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo and Song Jung-a in Seoul
Published: October 24 2008 18:06 | Last updated: October 24 2008 18:06
Global stocks slumped and currencies collapsed against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors rushed to sell risky assets, fanned by fears about the severity of the approaching global economic recession and bleak outlook for corporate earnings.
Traders said the massive reversal of currency positions in favour of the yen, reflected further liquidation of the so-called “carry trade”, in which investors had borrowed at low Japanese interest rates to fund risky global investments.
The sharp rise in the yen forced further sales of risky assets, with equities, commodities and emerging markets suffering sharp declines while investors sought the safety of owning short-term government paper. Redemption requests from investors in mutual and hedge funds intensified the wave of forced selling......
full story: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47df9dd4-...0077b07658.html
Credit crunch upsets 30-year rate swaps
By Michael Mackenzie
Published: October 23 2008 19:14 | Last updated: October 23 2008 19:14
The turmoil in financial markets has taken hold of the strategically important trade in long-term interest rate derivatives, pushing rates to levels once thought to be a “mathematical impossibility”.
Such interest rate “swaps” are the most widely traded over-the-counter derivative and are important for insurers, pension funds and other companies that need to fund liabilities decades in the future.
Investors use swaps to lock in interest rates for 30 years or more, trading a floating rate, based on the London interbank offered rate (Libor), for a fixed rate. The latter is typically based on US Treasury yields, plus a premium, called the “swap spread”, which reflects the risk of trading with a private counterparty, as opposed to the government.....
full story: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a7e9c544-...0077b07658.html
...und weiter :rolleyes:( wenn man das ganz durchliest und es so kommen sollte ---> :schreck
Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
The crisis in Hungary recalls the heady days of the UK’s expulsion from the ERM.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 10:52AM GMT 26 Oct 2008
Comments 20 | Comment on this article
The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.
Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.
The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.
They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.
Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. Iceland’s demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (£47bn). The Germans have lost $22bn.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk. It threatens to become “the second epicentre of the global financial crisis”, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America.
Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP :schreck – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.
Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland :rolleyes 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.
Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall....
full story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...s-meltdown.html
...die Engländer denken an ihre Landsleute :cool ---> Veti ;):D
My Dear Krauts
Getting by in Germany during the global meltdown
Published: 23 Oct 08 21:49 CET
Worried about the global economic meltdown? Roger Boyes, the Berlin correspondent for British daily The Times, has come up with a simple A to Z survival guide for the hard times in Germany.
I thought I had to do this for pedagogic reasons. Young Europeans have no historical experience of self-denial. Credit has always been part of their lives, so going without seems to them little more than Scrooge-like miserliness.
The article was clearly taken to heart. One fan even urged me to save some cash while recycling by using my own columns instead of toilet paper.
Well, thanks for that.
But this isn't an academic debate anymore. With the global economy in meltdown we are back to Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs in an emergency: food, clothing, shelter and transportation – in that order.
Especially with Germany’s economy so reliant on exports, things could get quite brutal rather fast. Forget those €800 cashmere sweaters and pick up the knitting needles; this is going to be the Age of Self-Reliance.
So, here, before you flush it away is the basic A to Z survival guide for the next Great Depression:
A is for Acorns. Pigs eat them. So can you. Borrow your grandmother's war recipes for acorn cutlets. And while you're visiting her in the old peoples home, make sure to swipe the biscuits that the Care staff always leave around.
B as in Body-peeling. Save your money. There is no such thing as superfluous hair in a recession. Hang on to it, as your hair might end up keeping you warm when you can't afford to heat your flat.
C for C-Class Mercedes. The gas-guzzler of choice for bankers, who really are the age’s new lepers. Try not to take out your anger on flashy rides made in Stuttgart...okay, maybe you can kick the tyres a bit. Feel better?
D as in Darkness. Thanks to local council cutbacks, dark is the new light in many German towns thoughtfully turning off streetlamps. Clever move – who wants to see the half-starved features of your hungry neighbours? Not me.
E as in Extra-Wurst. It’s that special slice of sausage that the butcher always give kids at the deli. Butchers might work with dead animal carcasses all day, but they still need love too. Borrow or snatch a child to get your Extra-Wurst. Then go back when the shift changes.
F for Fire. Those of you in Berlin go gather dead wood from Grunewald forest, make a bonfire either in the garden or under a stupidly parked Porsche – it’s a May Day ritual in the German capital. Roast a hedgehog for some protein.
G as in Group sex. Underrated and indisputably cheap home entertainment. Charge entry like a good German would.
H for Harald Schmidt. The top German entertainer on state-funded TV is overpaid at taxpayer expense. The obvious move: privatise him. Perhaps his jokes will improve.
I for Interior decoration. Go back to the student bachelor-pad look, I'm afraid. Chipped, smudged glass tables? They're in again. So is flat sharing and saving on detergents. Clean windows are so yesterday.
J as in Junge Union. The "youth" wing of the Christian Democratic party, ie the conservative under-40s. Desperate for members they always dish out sandwiches and fizzy drinks at their meetings. Go, eat, leave.
K for kebab stands. The classic information exchange points in an economic crisis. Ask the owner if he knows of a job going. He usually does. Review your moral position on selling meat products past their sell-by dates.
L is for Lidl. The supermarket chain that should now cater for your romantic dinner parties. Chateau Lidl wine if you grab a bottle goes for under €3, a pack of 20 candles for a mere €1.99! That should do it. Plus you get your picture taken (secretly, but hey!) at the check-out counter.
M as in Mutti. Heading to your mother’s is the traditional place to hole up during a recession. Washing done for free, hot dinners. If complaining gets too persistent switch up the iPod. Tell her you're looking for a job. Could take years in this economic climate.
N for Newspapers. A complete waste of money. Who wants more bad news?
O as in Oxfam. Relatively new in Germany due to a widespread charity shortage, but now in fashion. It’s a good place for oversized tweed jackets if you don't mind the smell of dead people. Buy books there and resell them on eBay.
P as in Plastic bottled water. Obviously pointless. Munich tap water is the new Evian!
Q is for Quark. Mix with milk and oil, put together with a baked potato. Invite a friend. Worked for millions of Germans in the War. Brand it as the new Teutonic sushi.
R as in Restaurants. Go to the backdoor of posh restaurants after 11 pm. The kitchen will give you a bag of the good but perishable stuff. This is not begging! We don't do begging. Remember good housekeeping is a solid middle class value.
S for Sparkassen savings banks. These are large empty buildings where foolish people once used to keep their money until it was melted down and made into brass nails to be hammered later into the coffin of capitalism. The staff that has survived has nothing to do. You will be offered coffee, biscuits, be offered a seat in a comfortably heated office. All you have to do is nod and humour them as they try to sell you a Sparvertrag. Leave after the third coffee.
T as in Tomatoes. Overpriced. Grow them and other fruit and veg on an allotment, or as the Germans call them a Schrebergarten.They’re the only real estate in the country that is bound to gain in value.
U for U-Bahn. A good place to dig coins out of the crevices of seats. They’re also warm. If you buy a ticket, take it to the Lost Property office and say you have misplaced a big black umbrella. When they offer you one, accept it. Later, re-sell it on eBay. I mean how many umbrellas can you have?
V for Verfallsdatum. The German word sell-by date is a key phrase in supermarkets that are now ready to drop prices on any food that looks close to its expiry point. Take a pen with you and alter the dates if you can't be bothered to trawl round the aisles. It’s best to bargain with German shop assistants in the evening when bosses have gone home.
W for Women’s Toilets. They’re better value than the male version. The best in Berlin: the posh Hotel Adlon. Head straight through the lobby, past Brad Pitt, down the stairs, into the Ladies, whatever your gender. Good quality free soap, free cloth towels (as many as your shopping bag can hold), plenty of loo paper – the works.
X as in X chromosomes. As many of these as you can get. Men panic in desperate situations and end up dying. But women are survivors. Er, like rats.
Y for Yacht. Around the Berlin lakes, there are now hundreds of sailing boats, neglected by their owners too lily-livered to sail when it's a bit chilly. Take one over for the evening, invite your friends around for a party, and tell them to bring a bottle of wine each. Much cheaper than St Tropez
Z as in Zoo. When all else fails, a useful source of nutrition. Think kangaroo steaks.
For more Roger Boyes, check out his website here. The Local (firstname.lastname@example.org)
THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER
PRECIOUS METALS – FOREX - STOCK INDICES - COMMODITIES “Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
The Delta Story
RONALD L. ROSEN
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
“True, thou art old: how soon we do forget our own defects!”
ShakespeareYes, and one of our major defects is, under stress we forget that the month of October is traditionally the month that monster smashes occur in the stock market.
When the smash is truly monstrous we tend to forget everything but what is happening to the market at the moment. We also forget that a smash in the month of October is usually followed by a vicious recovery.
October market smashes do not occur with regularity every year. However, there is a pattern in the market that is repeating with an eerie similarity. It is a timing pattern so similar that the timing is identical within one month and yet 30 years apart!
The 30 year commodity cycleW. D. Gann reminded us of several most important facts about commodities.
1. “The 30 year commodity cycle is the most important cycle.”
2. “When a commodity advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force or driving power which has been restrained and breaks out. The longer the time that elapses between the breaking into new territory, the greater the move you can expect, because the accumulative energy over a long period naturally will produce a larger movement than if it only accumulated during a short period of time.”
--------------------------------------------------------A Commodity Super Cycle has been in existence for over 100 years. The peaks have occurred 30 years apart. These cycles began after the Federal Reserve System and the Internal Revenue System were created in 1913. The Federal Reserve System and the Internal Revenue System are not only still in existence but have grown larger every year since 1913. Since they are still here and larger than ever it is highly probable that the Commodity Super Cycles are still in place. Let’s take another look at the cycles I am referring to.
“The 30 year commodity cycle is the most important cycle.”
W. D. Gann
The top or peak of the first commodity “Super-Cycle” occurred in 1920. This was seven years after the Federal Reserve System was established. The tops occurred in 1920, 1950, and 1980, and the current cycle is on course to peak in 2010. From here on out the action should be fast and furious right up to the top. We know that the peak of the last gold bull market occurred in January 1980. That was the peak in Super-Cycle III. It appears that the current bull market in gold has a high probability of peaking with the 30 year Super-Cycle IV.
Gold bullion broke out above a 4 year old high of $192.00 in February 1978. Ten months later in November 1978 gold bullion went below the breakout point of $192.00. Two months later gold made a new high at $258.00. That was followed by a corrective low in April 1979 that bottomed at $231.80. Nine months later, in the month of January 1980, gold bullion reached a high of $850.00.
The next chart is a monthly chart of gold in 2008, 30 years later.
GOLD MONTHLY 1978
Gold bullion broke out above a 28 year old high of $850.00 in the month of January 2008. This was 30 years after gold broke out to a new high in February 1978. Ten months later, in this month, October 2008, gold appears to have bottomed below the 28 year old high of $850.00. This is 30 years after gold bullion bottomed below the breakout level in the month of November 1978. If this 30 year pattern is to continue there must be a move to a new high for gold in December 2008. The following charts of gold show that a Delta medium # 8 high is due to arrive on December 10, 2008. The standard deviation for arrival of Delta medium # 8 high is 12/13 to 12/17. If there is a new high for gold in December 2008 we can assume that Delta Long Term # 3 low arrived in October 2008. There are several trading days left in October. Therefore, lower lows may still occur.
GOLD MONTHLY 2008“The following chart of gold shows that a Delta medium # 8 high is due to arrive on December 10, 2008. The standard deviation for arrival of Delta medium # 8 high is 12/3 to 12/17. If there is a new high for gold in December 2008 we can assume that Delta Long Term # 3 low arrived in October 2008. There are several trading days left in October so lower lows may still occur.”
GOLD DAILYIf the timing patterns I have outlined that are 30 years apart fail to continue repeating closely we may be involved with a prolonged bull market in gold. We won’t have long to wait before we know if the timing patterns will continue.
GOLD WEEKLYIn a very short period of time we shall find out if Mr. Gann is correct when he wrote that, “The 30 year commodity cycle is the most important cycle.” Two to three months is not that long to wait for an answer of this importance.
If the timing pattern is going to continue we should have the ultimate top in January/ February 2010.
If you are an investor or an active trader who would like to know the probable time for the turning points on gold, silver, the HUI gold share index, crude oil and various other indices:
Subscriptions are available at:
Updates will be posted when market action warrants.
Ron Rosen and Alistair Gilbert
Sun 26 Oct 2008
Cuts At MCD: Food Price Inflation Is Endangering The Dollar Menunaire
Posted by alyx under fail
Recently, we covered the Q3 earnings from McDonalds (MCD) and declared it one of the few bright spots in the American economy, because it’s a place where Main Street can eat hot food for a buck. Unfortunately for Dollar Menunaires everywhere, Bloomberg reported today that McDonalds may be removing the double cheeseburger from its coveted Dollar Menu choices, to counter the costs of rising ingredients, notably beef:
Rising costs may bump the double cheeseburger off McDonald’s Corp.’s dollar menu.Not only that, it is apparently a hot item of debate for MCD management.
As costs have risen, the double cheeseburger has become one of McDonald’s “most contentious” items on the dollar menu, and it may join chicken snack wraps and other items priced between $1 and $2, Glass said.Reportedly, executives have divided into two camps: those who will contribute their own blood, sweat and tears to raise cattle at a reasonable cost so that the double cheeseburger can be retained on the dollar menu, and those who say that’s bollocks, let’s mark it $1.69 and see if people start ordering the chicken nuggets instead.
The McDonalds Dollar Menunaire was not available for comment, though he is apparently capable of rambling on for hours if you leave him open in another window, as your editor mistakenly did while writing this post. So let’s try his game - which of these things is not like the others?
Yep - the double cheeseburger! That’s the one that will put you over budget. Sorry, America. Hope you can learn to live on parfait and fried pie.
(Linkage: Chicago Daily Herald ran the Bloomberg story. Notice the intrepid commenter: “howzabout you just take the cheese off and keep it at a buck, and fire those rude guys at the tollway Mickey D’s, would ya?” Much better idea than taking all the meat out, which is how I photoshopped it, above.)
October 25, 2008
Melda Laure (usagold.com 25October2008; 23:18)
Bankruptcy… is Preferable to Slavery.
@ sirs 968, Sam, G’Lox.
In bankruptcy, the debt slaves go free. And as we have seen in argentina, the good assets are foreclosed upon, but the vast bulk of the debt remains.. Unfortunately, for the west, the rest of the world is waking up to the History that the west denies. Bryan’s cross of gold has been replaced with a cross of paper and it will not withstand the fire to come. When the bloodsuckers are no longer satisfied with paper, the spawn of sauron will make war, on earth as it is in heaven. As did the morgoth say “Arda, my domain is, let the stars above shine, for here the black smoke covers the earth from horizon to horizon.”
To which the tale says the earth answered “Though the earth be covered with black smoke from horizon to horizon, yet the stars still blaze undimmed above it.”
Hobgoblins, Ulundi and things that go bump in the night; freedom has many enemies, some sucking cash, some sucking blood, (and bloodpayment has a slightly longer history where humans are concerned, sad to say).
As pelagius said long ago, man owes no debt to heaven, it was paid long ago.
October 25, 2008
Wall Street halts futures trading amid panic
Suzy Jagger in New York
Stock markets across the world cracked yesterday, forcing Wall Street to suspend trading on a key futures contract to stem panic-selling while Moscow shut for business altogether.
Sharp losses in New York, London, Europe and the Far East raised the spectre that governments may be forced to impose emergency holidays to avert a meltdown across world stock markets.
Before Wall Street opened yesterday, American regulators suspended all trading of Dow Jones futures contracts, which had plunged. Such contracts allow traders to bet on the future direction of the Dow Jones index. The plunge had triggered an automatic circuit breaker, which halts trading to prevent a market sliding into freefall.
Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University, said that his prediction earlier this week that markets would have to be shut down is already coming true.....
......Lord Myners, the new City Minister, said that the Bank of England’s ability to manage Britain’s financial stability had been “hampered by the limited instruments available to it”. Labour stripped the Bank of its power to regulate the financial sector as one its first moves when coming to power in 1997, moving the responsibility to the Financial Services Authority. Lax banking regulation has been blamed for the turmoil affecting global markets. Philip Hammond, the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: “Paul Myners is developing a habit of voicing the uncomfortable truths that the Prime Minister can’t bring himself to admit . . . Gordon Brown’s own City Minister has agreed with us that his decision in 1997 to take powers away from the Bank of England is at the root of the financial crisis.”
New banking reform legislation will give the Bank statutory powers to oversee financial stability.
full story: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...icle5010556.ece
Published Monday through Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays
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Party Till Black Monday?
Say, not to be a bummer here, but the action on Friday, although down (sure, sure), was nowhere near enough of a downer for us to be looking to it as a 'bottom' although the TV financial/pimp channels had no shortage of "bottom pickers" on proclaiming this and that. Strange contortions as some of 'em did that, too.
For one thing, my friend Robin Landry reminded me of a little 'common sense' which although it should be reported by the 'bottom pickers' isn't, generally. A real bottom in most major bear markets ends with a huge blow-off volume day. In addition, if there's going to be any meaningful gains appearing anytime soon, the advance/decline line has to turn around and get positive.
"George, any time you've got a rally and the advance decline line is seriously negative it's just not the bottom in most cases," said Landry.
Being 'old school' I always liked Joe Granville's on-balance volume approach, to.. So when the up volume is 224.5 million shares and the down volume is 1.4-billion I figure "Nope, keep your money in cash, bonds, or treasuries...".....
full story: http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
....also wenn's da einem nicht hoch kommt :bad das steht ja nicht in einem Käseblatt sondern in und keinen scheint's zu jucken :gomad
So When Will Banks Give Loans?
By JOE NOCERA
Published: October 24, 2008
“Chase recently received $25 billion in federal funding. What effect will that have on the business side and will it change our strategic lending policy?”
It was Oct. 17, just four days after JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, agreed to take a $25 billion capital injection courtesy of the United States government, when a JPMorgan employee asked that question. It came toward the end of an employee-only conference call that had been largely devoted to meshing certain divisions of JPMorgan with its new acquisition, Washington Mutual.
Which, of course, it also got thanks to the federal government. Christmas came early at JPMorgan Chase.
The JPMorgan executive who was moderating the employee conference call didn’t hesitate to answer a question that was pretty politically sensitive given the events of the previous few weeks.
Given the way, that is, that Treasury Secretary :kotz Henry M. Paulson Jr. had decided to use the first installment of the $700 billion bailout money to recapitalize banks instead of buying up their toxic securities, which he had then sold to Congress and the American people as the best and fastest way to get the banks to start making loans again, and help prevent this recession from getting much, much worse.
In point of fact, the dirty little secret of the banking industry is that it has no intention of using the money to make new loans. But this executive was the first insider who’s been indiscreet enough to say it within earshot of a journalist.
(He didn’t mean to, of course, but I obtained the call-in number and listened to a recording.)
“Twenty-five billion dollars is obviously going to help the folks who are struggling more than Chase,” he began. “What we do think it will help us do is perhaps be a little bit more active on the acquisition side or opportunistic side for some banks who are still struggling. And I would not assume that we are done on the acquisition side just because of the Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns mergers. I think there are going to be some great opportunities for us to grow in this environment, and I think we have an opportunity to use that $25 billion in that way and obviously depending on whether recession turns into depression or what happens in the future, you know, we have that as a backstop.”
Read that answer as many times as you want — you are not going to find a single word in there about making loans to help the American economy. On the contrary: at another point in the conference call, the same executive (who I’m not naming because he didn’t know I would be listening in) explained that “loan dollars are down significantly.” He added, “We would think that loan volume will continue to go down as we continue to tighten credit to fully reflect the high cost of pricing on the loan side.” In other words JPMorgan has no intention of turning on the lending spigot.
It is starting to appear as if one of Treasury’s key rationales for the recapitalization program — namely, that it will cause banks to start lending again — is a fig leaf, Treasury’s version of the weapons of mass destruction.
In fact, Treasury wants banks to acquire each other and is using its power to inject capital to force a new and wrenching round of bank consolidation. As Mark Landler reported in The New York Times earlier this week, “the government wants not only to stabilize the industry, but also to reshape it.” Now they tell us.
Indeed, Mr. Landler’s story noted that Treasury would even funnel some of the bailout money to help banks buy other banks. And, in an almost unnoticed move, it recently put in place a new tax break, worth billions to the banking industry, that has only one purpose: to encourage bank mergers. As a tax expert, Robert Willens, put it: “It couldn’t be clearer if they had taken out an ad.”
Friday delivered the first piece of evidence that this is, indeed, the plan. PNC announced that it was purchasing National City, an acquisition that will be greatly aided by the new tax break, which will allow it to immediately deduct any losses on National City’s books.
As part of the deal, it is also tapping the bailout fund for $7.7 billion, giving the government preferred stock in return. At least some of that $7.7 billion would have gone to NatCity if the government had deemed it worth saving. In other words, the government is giving PNC money that might otherwise have gone to NatCity as a reward for taking over NatCity.
I don’t know about you, but I’m starting to feel as if we’ve been sold a bill of goods......
Nobody is saying it should make loans that people can’t repay. What I am saying is that Mr. Dimon took the $25 billion on the condition that his institution would start making loans. There are plenty of small and medium-size businesses that are choking because they have no access to capital — and are perfectly capable of repaying the money. How about a loan program for them, Mr. Dimon?
Late Thursday afternoon, I caught up with Senator Dodd, and asked him what he was going to do if the loan situation didn’t improve. “All I can tell you is that we are going to have the bankers up here, probably in another couple of weeks and we are going to have a very blunt conversation,” he replied.
He continued: “If it turns out that they are hoarding, you’ll have a revolution on your hands. People will be so livid and furious that their tax money is going to line their pockets instead of doing the right thing. There will be hell to pay.”
Let’s hope so. (....dabei wird es wohl leider bleiben :rolleyes)
full story: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/b...gin&oref=slogin
....man braucht ja gar keine Verschwörungstheorie - das ist einfach das ganze Volk belügen/betrügen/bescheissen - eine Machtkonzentration organisieren die letztendlich in eine totale Überwachung/Bevormundung man kann wirklich bald sagen in Sklaverei endet - ob sich jemals Widerstand regen wird :confused:rolleyes
:ironie (falls nicht bemerkt :o)
Sun 26 Oct 2008
Best. CEO. Ever.
Posted by Jason under all ur bankz , goldman sachs
Vikram Pandit is the smartest man on Earth. How smart is he? He’s so smart that when Lloyd Blankfein pretty much called him up and asked him to plz buy Goldman Sachs, he cold turned them down. Yes, he did that. From Financial Times:
The call, which was made at the tentative suggestion of the regulatory authorities or at least with their blessing, was made shortly after Goldman had won surprise approval to convert itself from a securities firm into a commercial bank on September 21, according to several people familiar with the events.Why, you ask, does this make him smart? Halloween is near, I’ll explain in such terms. Citigroup is Carrie White, extremely powerful but really nobody respects them, and Sandy Weill had sex with the devil to create it. Goldman Sachs would be Tommy Ross, and is way popular and extremely good-looking, and the kind of person that, quite frankly, an ugly girl like Citigroup would never, ever be able to get. So Goldman invited Citi to be its prom date, but Citi didn’t want to have the pig’s blood of success poured on its head in front of the rest of Wall Street so it said no.
Nah, I’m kidding. Vikram Pandit is the dumbest man alive.
Carrie White ---> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrie_White
Tommy Ross ---> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Ross
Sun 26 Oct 2008
Let’s Play A Guessing Game
Posted by Jason under bernanke , governors , loller dollar
Despite every effort that was supposed to stop the bleeding, the economy continues to suck. So now what is Ben to do? Will he:
A) Generously open his own wallet to stimulate the economy?
B) Go hold up a stagecoach or something to raise more money?
C) Hold Jamie Dimon at gunpoint until banks begin lending again?
D) Announce a rate cut?
If you guessed D)…well, you should have guessed D) because that is all he knows how to do. Jamie Dimon would judo-flip Ben so hard if he tried any funny business.
The Fed is meeting this week, after which they are widely expected to announce a rate cut of a quarter- or a half-point. A half-point cut would bring the Fed’s key interest rate down to 1%, where it sat during those halcyon days of 2003-2004 when we all had all the credit we wanted, and more, and everyone was happy and Alan Greenspan was still a true American hero. The obvious hope of such a move is for the US to return to its unsustainably debt-happy ways, which is really the foundation of our entire economic system when you stop and think about it.
:dumm ...er ist ja nur ein Spielball :rolleyes
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