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lunar 13.08.2008 17:10

"Global Settlement regarding Auction-Rate Securities Case Imminent" :rolleyes (CNBC) pay back the the investors und schon ist alles wieder gut :bad aber natürlich nur für die grossen Betrüger :gomad die kleinen Schlitzohren wandern nach wie vor ins Gefängnis :dumm

....nachdem diese Meldung richtig breitgetreten wurde erholten sich die financials vom Tief und - wie könnte es anders sein - und Gold "erholte" :gomad sich vom Hoch :grrrr

lunar 13.08.2008 17:42

Also from August 13, 2007: Banking Crisis Misunderstood By Mainstream

We just went through a very disconnected monetary moment when the world's biggest banks (except for China, the biggest one of all) had to pump nearly $400 billion in just three sessions to keep the world banking system from collapsing. I notice no stories talked about the collective FOREX reserves of Europe so I thought it is time for lots and lots of interesting numbers. Also, the traders who brought upon us this disaster are getting big fat bonuses even as they lose money. Figures. And more equity funds struggle to exist. And an army of stupid commentators say stupid things which is really a marvel to me.
Remember the deluge of take overs and buy-backs? I begged the governments of the West to please strangle the bankers and equity funds doing this garbage. We were told, 'The stock market will go up and up!' and, 'Private funds and banks will revitalize our businesses and make them work better!' This was, as per usual. total bunkum. Lies. Childish fantasies. Fatal falsehoods. Here is what is going to utterly destroy our banking system......

From Bloomberg: Coventree Inc., the Canadian finance company that went public in November, failed to sell asset-backed commercial paper to replace maturing debt because of the credit crunch caused by U.S. subprime mortgage losses.
The shares tumbled 35 percent after the company extended maturities on C$250 million ($238 million) of commercial paper and sought emergency funding for another C$700 million of debt. Toronto-based Coventree's units have about C$16 billion of asset- backed commercial paper outstanding.

Oh, oh. Naughty little children playing banker have stolen mommy's purse and daddy's pension and burned it in the oven after running it through the Cusinart. All these deals require rolling over the debts. We are sitting on a volcano filled with debt roll-overs that will not roll over at all. They will keel over dead. Trillions of dollars are going to die this way. Far more than the housing mess. The need for this money is so gross, the US, Europe, Japan and a handful of other nations not named 'China' had to squander half of their FOREX reserves to pour enough liquid into the banking system to keep these ridiculous loans coming. All those 'Look at that $22 billion dollar deal!' deals are now turning into 'Look at empty bank vault!' moments in history.

lunar 13.08.2008 18:25


Originally Posted by Vzang

Keep cash is the best !

Interesting right now a dollar might buy a cheap roll of toilet paper, 10 years from now it may be cheaper just using the dollar


lunar 13.08.2008 18:55

Die Berliner Mauer am Bethaniendamm (1986)

Am Sonntag, den 13. August 1961, wird unter Aufsicht von Volkspolizei und Nationaler Volksarmee (NVA) die Sektorengrenze nach West-Berlin hermetisch abgeriegelt. Überall werden Straßen aufgerissen, Panzersperren und Stacheldrahtverhaue errichtet. Die Mauer entsteht. Sie unterbricht die in Generationen gewachsenen Verbindungen zwischen beiden Teilen der Stadt......

lunar 14.08.2008 10:34

How Goldman Sachs took over the world

Goldman Sachs Tower

Whether it's a credit crunch to fix or an Olympics to plan, the list ofGoldman Sachs alumni is sure to have a candidate

By Stephen Foley
Tuesday, 22 July 2008

If there's something weird in the financial world, who you gonna call? Goldman Sachs........

John Thornton

From his post as professor and director of global leadership at Tsinghua University in Beijing, the former Goldman Sachs co-chief operating officer John Thornton has become a highly-influential figure in the developing business and poltical inter-relations between the US and China. He was Goldman's boss in Asia in the mid-Nineties and remains well connected in the East and the West.

Duncan Niederauer

Wall Streeters joked about a Goldman Sachs "takeover" of the New York Stock Exchange. Hank Paulson, the Goldman boss on the NYSE board, moved to oust the chairman, Dick Grasso, and recommended the then chief operating officer of Goldman, John Thain, as Mr Grasso's replacement. Mr Thain modernised the exchange as demanded by Goldman, and Mr Thain's old Goldman deputy, Duncan Niederauer, is in charge.

Jon Corzine

The former co-chief executive of Goldman went into full-time politics in 1999, having lost the internal power struggle that preceded the company's stock-market flotation in 1999. He has been governor of New Jersey since 2006, having spent the previous six years in the US Senate. His 2000 Senate election campaign was then the most expensive ever in the US, and Corzine spent $62m of his own money.

Joshua Bolten

For five years until 1999, Mr Bolten served as director of legal affairs for Goldman based in London, effectively making him the bank's chief lobbyist to the EU. The Republican lawyer aided George Bush's 2000 election campaign, helped co-ordinate policy in the White House and has been the President's chief of staff since 2006.

Paul Deighton

The man heading London's planning for the 2012 Olympic Games, Paul Deighton amassed a fortune estimated at over £100m during his two decades at Goldman Sachs, where he had been one of its most powerful investment bankers.

Robert Rubin

A US Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, Mr Rubin could once again emerge as a powerful figure in Washington if Barack Obama wins the presidency, since he has maintained his influence on Democrat politics. Mr Rubin reached the second-highest rung at Goldman, becoming co-chief operating officer before joining the US government in 1993.

Gavyn Davies

The ex-chairman of the BBC still has the ear of Gordon Brown, to whom he has been a good friend and informal adviser. He is married to the Prime Minister's aide Sue Nye. Mr Davies spent 15 years as an economist at Goldman. He was commissioned to report on the future funding of the BBC by Mr Brown in 1999. Two years later, he was poached to chair it.

Jim Cramer

This former Goldman trader is, without question, the most influential stock pundit in the US. Hectoring and shouting his investment advice nightly on his CNBC show, Mad Money, he routinely moves share prices. His primal scream against the Federal Reserve ("They know nothing") was a YouTube sensation last year, as the central bank refused to lower interest rates to ease the pain of the credit crisis on Wall Street.

Robert Zoellick

Goldman provided a lucrative home to Robert Zoellick, the neo-conservative Republican, between the time he quit as Condoleezza Rice's deputy at the State Department in 2006 (having not secured the job he coveted as Treasury Secretary, when it went to Hank Paulson) and his appointment last year as head of the World Bank. At Goldman he had acted as head of international affairs, a kind of global ambassador and networker-in-chief.

Mario Draghi

The head of the Italian central bank is another example of the revolving door between Goldman and public service. Mr Draghi had been an academic economist, an executive at the World Bank and a director-general of the Italian treasury before joining Goldman as a partner in 2002. He is becoming a significant figure in the response to the credit crisis, chairing the financial stability forum of central banks, finance ministries and regulators.

Malcolm Turnbull

Treasurer for the opposition Liberal Party, Mr Turnbull is one of the fastest-rising politicians in Australia. He was the aggressive advocate who took on and beat the British Government in the Spycatcher trial of the former MI5 agent Peter Walker, but he then pursued a career in business and ran Goldman Australia from 1997 to 2001, before jumping in to politics to serve as environment minister under John Howard.

Hank Paulson

Cometh the hour, cometh the man. President George Bush must be delighted he lured a reluctant Hank Paulson away from his $38m-a-year job as Goldman Sachs chief executive in 2006, just in time to deal with the Wall Street crisis that has engulfed the entire US economy. The bird-watching enthusiast had been a surprising choice as Treasury secretary, since his environmentalism was at odds with much of Bush's policy.

lunar 14.08.2008 10:51

....und das wird von einem äusserst wallstreetfreundlichen Herrn erklärt :rolleyes
also ist es sicher noch einiges tougher :o und die Welt hat sich von den Wallstreetlern über den Tisch ziehen lassen :dumm

subprime derivatives

lunar 14.08.2008 14:55

U.S. July consumer price index up 0.8% vs. 0.5% expected
8:31 AM ET, Aug 14, 2008

U.S. July core CPI up 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected
8:31 AM ET, Aug 14, 2008

....hmmmm :gruebel wie war das gleich :confused je höher die Inflation desto tiefer der Goldpreis :licht

lunar 14.08.2008 17:54

2 Anhang/Anhänge
Demeter (1000+ posts) Thu Aug-14-08 12:13 PM
Response to Original message 39. I Sure Would Like a Reasonable Explanation Why TPTB Feel Obliged to pump the Dow up to 11,600 all the time. What is the magic there? Wouldn't it be a lot more useful to take the lumps and get it over with?

If the wealthy were too unimaginative to do anything with their loot besides buy pieces of worthless paper, then let Social Darwinism take over. The inheritors of wealth (and I'm thinking W here) have proven to be recessive deadends. Let them go under so more capable people can breathe, if not rise. Nobody in his right mind could claim George, Dick, or Condi as the cream of the crop. So stop the pretense!

And if this forces the criminal to abandon country ahead of schedule and hole up in Paraguay, or Dubai, that's Paraguay and Dubai's problem, isn't it? It's no skin off our nose.

Trying to keep this nation of workers in chains is costing the oppressors far too much in lost opportunity, devaluing paper, and social derision. Not to mention loss of clout at home and abroad.

Where is their breaking point, when they throw in the towel and try something different?

They're trying to prove their shrugger is correct and anyone who thinks differently is wrong... Prag Aug-14-08 12:17 PM #40
Remind Me of The Definition of Insanity--I Must Be Developing Alzheimers Demeter Aug-14-08 12:46 PM #42


....und bei CNBC läuft der Sabber :rolleyes

lunar 14.08.2008 18:50

...elendiger Schei**Krieg :mad

Two refugees from the fighting shelter in a disused military hospital


Russland nutzt Lücke in Sarkozys Friedensplan

Moskaus Militär operiert ungeniert im georgischen Kernland - und fühlt sich dabei im Recht. Denn im Friedensplan, den Frankreichs Staatschef Sarkozy vermittelt hat, werden dem Kreml "zusätzliche Sicherheitsmaßnahmen" zugestanden. In Berlin und Brüssel ist man alarmiert, noch mehr in Washington. Von Florian Gathmann mehr... [ Video | Forum ]


Page last updated at 17:37 GMT, Thursday, 14 August 2008 18:37 UK

US warns Russia of long-term impact
US defence chief Robert Gates warns relations with Russia may be damaged but says he sees no prospect of US military deployment in Georgia.
Eyewitness: Gori's fiery mix
Anger smoulders in rebel city
Georgians fear revenge attacks
Feeling vindicated in Moscow
Seeking refuge in Tbilisi
BP reopens gas pipeline
High tension around Gori

Silverbay 14.08.2008 21:11

quote lunar

...elendiger Schei**Krieg :mad

ja, das ist so ...

Trotz der normaler Weise rechtslastigen Schaukel
gab es heute im Feuilleton der « NZZ » eine gute
Analyse von einem Georgier : Devi Dumbadze

Französische Presse ist auch interessant, the broker Sarkozy
wie immer zwischen Himmel und Hölle, und das auf dünnem Eis.

NATO so gut wie irrelevant, die US governmental puppies recht einfältig,
Haaretz inzwischen mit Ironie und Steinmeier mit Drahtseilakt – oben
sein EGO, links das russische Gas, rechts Frau Merkel und unten ... ?

... nasse Hosen und das Bewusstsein, das dies noch nicht alles war
im olympischen Jahr des Friedens.

Die EU täte gut daran, an einem eigenem Profil zu arbeiten, die
Demission von Zauberlehrling Saakashvili ist nicht zu umgehen.

Er " rief die Geister ", nun Ende mit Kinderstunde ...


lunar 15.08.2008 08:33

2 Anhang/Anhänge
Silberbay :supi merci :)


Registered User

Originally Posted by Dizzy47
wooooooooooooW wtf just happened

Anyone who cannot see the rigg after tonite, mainly in the silver market is a complete RETARD period.

now they can just close all the silver mines round the globe for who in their right mind would keep on digging the stuff

seriously, that would be such a blow to the Cartel

freaking bastards,

I wonder who will sell at these prices

the longer down here the bigger the shortage will become

U.S. mint suspends gold coin sales; futures price is a fiction !!!!!!!
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2008-08-15 04:27. Section: Daily Dispatches

12:25a ET Friday, August 15, 2008

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of American Eagle gold coins and is refusing orders from dealers, two coin and bullion dealers confirmed Thursday.

I bet freaking Goldman and the 8 large shorts are covering like there's no tomorrow

look how it fits Goldman, aug 13 Tocom session they covered a massive amount of 1,427 short contracts and sold 27 long contracts to bring their long position to 779 contracts and their net short position to 4,962 contracts.

is this their last chance to come out clean of shorts before the huge price run up?

It doesn't seem to matter whether shortages exist or not.....when you can have a 10% drop in a price in less than a few minutes, as what happened with silver today, you no longer have a market. This PM disaster has taken place EXACTLY when the opposite should have occurred. July had the highest inflation rate in 17 years, we have a chance for a new world war, and we have this crap happening. Sorry, but we can no longer make any suggestions as to what any of the PM's will do. It's over....I've been reading from all sorts of folks as to how the boys are out of ammo, that they can't control things, yada yada, for several years now. When you have this kind of action, there is no point in trying to make any suggestions as to what any institution will or will not do.


:schwitz die "Macht" des grossen Geldes :bad

Gold und Silber Charts nur als visuelle Erklärung - oder wie man das benennen soll :rolleyes

lunar 15.08.2008 10:44

Wag the Dog: How to Conceal Massive Economic Collapse

by Ellen Brown - August 15, 2008

....."There’s a crisis in the White House, and to save the election, they’d have to fake a war."

Perhaps that explains the sudden breakout of war in the Eurasian country of Georgia on August 8, just 3 months before the November elections. August 8 was the day the Olympic Games began in Beijing, a distraction that may have been timed to keep China from intervening on Russia’s behalf. The mainstream media version of events is that Russia, the bully on the block, invaded its tiny neighbor Georgia; but not all commentators agree. Mikhail Gorbachev, writing in The Washington Post on August 12, observed:

"What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenseless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity. . . . The Georgian leadership could do this only with the perceived support and encouragement of a much more powerful force."4

Bruce Gagnon, coordinator of the Global Network against Weapons and Nuclear Power, commented in OpEdNews on August 11:

"The U.S. has long been involved in supporting ‘freedom movements’ throughout this region that have been attempting to replace Russian influence with U.S. corporate control. The CIA, National Endowment for Democracy . . . , and Freedom House (includes Zbigniew Brzezinski, former CIA director James Woolsey, and Obama foreign policy adviser Anthony Lake) have been key funders and supporters of placing politicians in power throughout Central Asia that would play ball with ‘our side’. . . . None of this is about the good guys versus the bad guys. It is power bloc politics . . . . Big money is at stake . . . . Both parties (Republican and Democrat) share a bi-partisan history and agenda of advancing corporate interests in this part of the world. Obama’s advisers, just like McCain’s (one of his top advisers was recently a lobbyist for the current government in Georgia) are thick in this stew."5 Brzezinski, who is now Obama’s adviser, was Jimmy Carter’s foreign policy adviser in the 1970s. He also served in the 1970s as director of the Trilateral Commission, which he co-founded with David Rockefeller Sr., considered by some to be the "master spider" of the Wall Street banking network.6 Brzezinski later boasted of drawing Russia into war with Afghanistan in 1979, "giving to the Soviet Union its Vietnam War."7 Is the Georgia affair an attempted repeat of that coup? Mike Whitney, a popular Internet commentator, observed on August 11:

"Washington’s bloody fingerprints are all over the invasion of South Ossetia. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili would never dream of launching a massive military attack unless he got explicit orders from his bosses at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. After all, Saakashvili owes his entire political career to American power-brokers and US intelligence agencies. If he disobeyed them, he’d be gone in a fortnight. Besides an operation like this takes months of planning and logistical support; especially if it’s perfectly timed to coincide with the beginning of the Olympic games. (another petty neocon touch) That means Pentagon planners must have been working hand in hand with Georgian generals for months in advance. Nothing was left to chance."

Part of that careful planning may have been the unprecedented propping up of the dollar and bombing of gold and oil the week before the curtain opened on the scene. Gold and oil had to be pushed down hard to give them room to rise before anyone shouted "hyperinflation!" As we watch the curtain rise on war in Eurasia, it is well to remember that things are not always as they seem. Markets are manipulated and wars are staged by Grand Chessmen behind the scenes...... möchte es ja lieber nicht glauben :rolleyes aber Politik/Macht sind wohl wirklich nur noch ein Drecksgeschäft :(

Silverbay 15.08.2008 12:22

Zauberlehrling Saakashvili, a taste of come what may ...

that's it lunar - nicht mehr und nicht weniger.

Die Befürchtung hatte ich schon, seit ich die posts
von sit im Frühjahr las.

lunar 15.08.2008 12:39

Silverbay...ich/man sollte (noch) mehr lesen :rolleyes:schwitzaber auch anderen Stoff ;)

I Love Subprime (....also ich sicher nicht :o;))

lunar 15.08.2008 15:16

Aussie :verbeug
Midas Member

Some clarity from Bill Buckler aka: The Privateer
It is tempting to come to the conclusion that the huge spike in the USDX which gathered momentum early this week and then broke its bonds on August 8 is some kind of clandestine international US Dollar intervention. There have certainly been no lack of precedents for such actions over the past two decades. Indeed, in mid July as the CRB index and the oil price were peaking, there was a short-lived series of articles in the US financial press arguing the case for another episode of "co-ordinated" currency intervention.

But we think the US Dollar surge on August 8 has a much simpler explanation. Similar to what happened to US stock markets in the wake of the SEC's decision to outlaw "naked short selling" on Fannie, Freddie and seventeen other US financial stocks, this was a plain and simple short cover rally.

If this is the case, and we think it is, then the USDX may have more rises ahead of it in the immediate future. The short interest in the US Dollar is vast and has been built up over many years. But a short cover rally on the US Dollar is also dangerous in the extreme to not only the US but to the global financial and monetary system.

Shorts are captive buyers, they must buy to take their profits. Once they close out their positions by buying, their ability to cushion falls in the market is no longer there. As Doug Noland puts it: "If today's dislocation develops into a significant unwind of these positions (short the US Dollar), the market then immediately becomes vulnerable to a disorderly 'melt up' followed almost inevibably by a sharp reversal and disorderly decline." Doug is very polite here. We would call it a sucker rally followed by a bloodbath.

The "hedge" against the freefall of financial paper markets - the commodities price boom - has turned turtle. On top of that, the hedge against the currency backing this financial paper - the US Dollar - has started to unwind in a huge short cover rally. Foreign holders of US Dollar denominated debt instruments have had presented to them a (you should pardon the expression) "golden" opportunity to take advantage of this rally to start selling their $US paper. So have foreign central banks, who may well have participated in the short cover rally itself.

Gold (and Silver) are commodities, that is true. But they are also alternative MONEYS. In the final analysis, if one wants to protect one's future purchasing power against the regulatory destruction now being perpetrated on the global financial system, there is nowhere else to go. That is why they are so detested by all politicians and all commercial and central bankers. They are the one means to get OUTSIDE the system, and those who run the system literally cannot afford for anyone to break ranks in the current mess.

We have no idea how long this US Dollar rally can last and how high it will go. We are certein that once it runs out of steam, the US Dollar will plummet again. When any market, no matter how large or "vital", loses its "captive buyers", a subsequent massive fall is absolutely assured.

And what of Gold's short interest? Well, the "longs" have certainly run for the exits on the paper futures markets but the "shorts" have not filled the hole they left. Open interest on Gold is down by almost 120,000 contracts or nearly 25% since it peaked at 496,778 contracts on July 18.

Permission hereby given to
quote short excerpts - provided

full attribution is given:
© 2008 - The Privateer

....ob es so ist/kommen wird :nw aber es zeigt doch erschreckend wie alles zum Spielball der GeldMafia geworden ist :mad nicht, dass das früher nicht war - aber jetzt doch in einem enormen Ausmass und weltweit :rolleyes

lunar 15.08.2008 17:57

Q2 GDP: Gross Leveraged Lie

Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick Letter"
Aug 15, 2008


Here are the highlighted basic facts from the official USGovt economic growth GDP lie:

  • The USGovt agency used a 1.1% annualized Deflator for inflation adjustment, which is absurd given the skyrocketing costs that quarter in every conceivable corner.
  • Even the falsified CPI was registered at close to 5% on successive months within the second quarter.
  • So the Deflator was 4% wrong high, even versus internal USGovt calculations.
  • To be consistent within its own corrupted statistics, the nearly 2% GDP growth should have been published as a minus 2% result, a loud recession reading.
  • The last two official GDP readings would have been -0.9% in Q1, -2% in Q2, back-to-back negatives for quarterly GDPs.
  • Accelerating economic recession with heavy price inflation is nasty STAGFLATION......
.....The USDollar, via its DX index, has filled in a technical thin region between 73.5 and 76.5, and did so fast. Notice how in early June another milder but powerful surge was executed, again when the financial system seemed crippled. What has ensued actually makes possible the next serious decline in coming months. Notice the crystal clear symmetry in the chart, as the rise was as sudden as the fall. That spells instability for an easily occurring correction back down again. The US$ DX index has benefited not from inherent strength, but from relative weakness being realized in the euro. The British pound has also suffered steep declines, as forecasted here in the last several private reports. Even the Canadian Dollar has fallen. The Competing Currency Wars are at work, overtime. The USDollar is not gaining strength at all. It looks incredibly vulnerable. What has changed is that the US$ alternatives have vanished quickly......

......The Powerz are attempting to push down gold and dollar up as much as possible before the orchestrated autumn bank sector PULLED PLUG. Dozens of US banks are going to go bust. Also, the geopolitical chessboard seems badly tilted, adding to US financial vulnerability to the extreme. The Global War for Energy just witnessed a serious counter-attack by Putin. He must have looked into the US president's eyes last month at the summit and seen little to impress, along with a lame duck in office. The tsunami should come this autumn, one to inflict serious damage on the USDollar. The gold trade is still an anti-US$ trade. A difficult transition is in progress for gold to become the global monetary inflation trade. A new foundation on futures contracts must be built. The past gold trade built upon anti-US$ foundation has been largely eroded. The next one to be built upon monetary ease and huge accommodation by major and secondary central banks, in reaction to global recession. A tough transition must occur. Soon gold is to become the hedge against global monetary inflation, as central banks fight at least a Western world economic recession, that includes Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

The USDollar fundamentals remain extraordinarily weak, and weaker than just a couple months ago. USGovt deficits have doubled in the last year. Tax revenues are way down, like 10% down annually, another confirmation of the recession. Foreclosures for US homes rose by 55% in July, a sign of continued nightmare. Housing prices are accelerating down, as lending institutions holding properties have begun to cave in on price to sell at a time when foreclosures continue in their other doors. The new reality in the housing industry is that two markets are apparent and at work, one influencing the other. There are houses demanded and supplied for the public. There are foreclosures entering and being disposed. In recent months, the foreclosed properties are increasingly dominant, not only making up 30% to 40% of final sales, but continuing relentlessly to supply more homes to be sold, upsetting the balance......

full story: sieht's ja ziemlich düster :schwitz wenn es mir auch realistisch scheint :rolleyes
aber eben - man weiss ja nie was die GeldMafia noch alles aus dem Hut zaubert :gruebel

lunar 15.08.2008 18:10

...der Weg nach oben :schwitz:rolleyes:o:hihi - Posted by honey

lunar 16.08.2008 08:01

15 hours ago - Nasdaq

Saturday, 16 August 2008 07:52

BOND REPORT: Treasurys Rise After Economic, TIC Data
getting a boost from a jump in foreign purchases of U.S. assets in June, as traders also digested reports showing a rise in U.S. factory output and tentative recovery in New York state manufacturing.

Ten-year Treasury note yields (UST10Y), which move inversely to prices, fell 3 basis points to 3.862%.

Two-year note yields (UST2YR) slipped 5 basis points to 2.391%. 'Yields headed south into the better round of June TIC data,' said analysts at Action...


Jim Sinclair schreibt dazu:
.....You also know about the odd Fed statement that the Begging Bowl loan window might open to non-US financial entities. The recent TIC report of Treasury purchases by non-US sources raises the question of whether non-US entities are already at the US Fed Begging Bowl loan window. The reason I say this is that the Begging Bowl pays in US Treasury issues, not cash, in exchange for garbage OTC derivative paper as securitized instruments. That would trigger a TIC positive event reporting that non-US entities have bought US Treasury instruments.

....hat da jemand Wissen/Meinung dazu :confused Begging Bowl - der Zauberhut Paulson/FED :confused:rolleyes

lunar 16.08.2008 08:59

sirgiyan :verbeug
Registered User

Just listen to this and think a bit. We met the enemy and the enemy is us!

...das ist eine harte Nuss - aber wirklich "it's a must" :supi ob einem jetzt die Ansichten passen oder nicht :o es ist lang und ziemlich mühsam, da die Lautstärken unterschiedlich sind - aber wirklich es lohnt sich :cool

Silverbay 16.08.2008 17:27

thanks lunar ...

das hört sich wohl so an, wie vermutet.

La "FED" redete die Rezession hoch und
nun « schwingen » wir directly into the
depression / deflation klingt hier etwas

Die ganze "kaka", wie mein kleiner zu
sagen pflegt, ist bereits von den "war-
lords" angerichtet – einmal sehen, wer
nun zu Tisch gebeten wird.

Klar ist, dass die letztliche Bestätigung einer
Deflation Washington zum allerletzten Mittel
greifen lässt – ich hoffe, dass dies irgendwie
verhindert werden kann.


lunar 17.08.2008 11:16

15 August 2008

Three Scenarios for the US Dollar and Equity Rallies

As you may have noticed we have been experiencing a powerful counter-trend rally in the US dollar and financials assets including stocks, especially the financials and the broader indices like the Russell, and the US Bonds. Certain commodities like oil, gold and silver have gotten beaten like a rented mule. Why has this occurred with such sudden power?

Here are several scenarios worth considering.

  1. Short Squeeze and Forced Liquidation: The "sell dollar and buy energy and metals" trade had become vastly overdone, the big players noticed this, and are using their Wall Street ways to force out the funds and specs that were holding this trade. We consider this a high probability because of the sharpness and violence of the move which has all the hallmarks of a forced liquidation and short covering. Considering that this move has been progressing on low summer volumes during the Olympics in China lends credibility to a calculated trading gambit.

    There may also be some government intervention involved over the short term as a 'spark.' There is a disinformation effort tied to specific objectives, such as option expiration and unloading 'dog stocks' along with the usual mindless optimism of the prompter readers. The banks may be intentionally crowding out the hedge funds from short term liquidity for a trade, since they don't have many other sources of income and they require the capital anyway. 'Betraying your customer when the chips are down' is a time honored tradition on the Street, face-ripping-wise. And most importantly so far the moves are well within the parameters of corrective rallies on most of the charts, especially the dollar, stocks and gold.
  2. Government Sponsored Reflation: In contrast to a simpler government intervention, a government sponsored reflation is a longer term effort to lift the markets against the tide through the judicious application of liquidity in repetitive tranches of less than three months overlapping. On our long term Dow chart we have identified a couple periods after the 2000-2002 tech bust that we consider reflationary attempts by the US Treasury and the Fed that inflated bubbles in various markets including stocks and housing. This is a medium probability.

    It will increase in probability if the market continues to rally with liquidity efforts and new asset bubbles begin to appear. The rallies coincidence with the operation in Georgia which had the marks of a Bushco calculated event lends some credibility to this as well as the first scenario.
  3. Goldilocks is back in town: The US economy is ahead of the rest of the world in getting past its credit crisis and restoring soundness to its financial system. The recession will be mild and short lived. The markets are anticipating the US advantage of grossly distorting its economic statistics versus Europe's relative honest reporting. This is a low probability.

    The data just does not support an improving economy in the forseeable future. Ben and Hank will botch the rescue effort required for this scenario and activate scenario 2, handing the next president a serious problem. If its McCain we'll just go to war to take our minds off our problems. If its Obama, we'll have a lot of fireside chats to keep us warm in the winter winds that blow through our ruined economy.
  4. Prelude to a Crash: Premature to discuss further unless the stock market reverses hard in a 'rally that fails.' Then the probability may move very quickly from low to high if we see the 'right moves.' It has a nice cynical irony to it as well. But unlikely as of now.
We'll have to see what happens to assess the situation further. But it is apparent that the US financial system is badly in need of reform and responsible adult supervision. Truth, accountability, and vigilant justice are among the commodities in the shortest supply.

Posted by Jesse at 3:53 PM - http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...dollar-and.html

lunar 17.08.2008 20:15


lunar 18.08.2008 07:27

FishingwithJesse :verbeug
Registered User

The Endgame Nears For Fannie and Freddie

By Barrons Aug. 16, 2008

IT MAY BE CURTAINS SOON FOR THE MANAGEMENTS and shareholders of beleaguered housing giants

It is growing increasingly likely that the Treasury will recapitalize Fannie and Freddie in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, availing itself of powers granted it under the new housing bill signed into law last month. Such a move almost certainly would wipe out existing holders of the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses. Barron's first raised the possibility of a government takeover of Fannie and Freddie in a March 10 cover story, "Is Fannie Mae Toast?"

Heaven knows, the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, both need resuscitation. Soaring mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures have led the companies to gush red ink for the past four quarters, and their managements concede the outlook is even grimmer well into next year. Shares of Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have lost around 90% of their value in the past year, with Fannie now trading at $7.91, and Freddie at $5.88.

Similarly, the balance sheets of both companies have been destroyed. On a fair-value basis, in which the value of assets and liabilities is marked to immediate-liquidation value, Freddie would have had a negative net worth of $5.6 billion as of June 30, while Fannie's equity eroded to $12.5 billion from a fair value of $36 billion at the end of last year. That $12.5 billion isn't much of a cushion for a $2.8 trillion book of owned or guaranteed mortgage assets.
What's more, the fair-value figures reported by the companies may overstate the value of their assets significantly. By some calculations each company is around $50 billion in the hole. But more on that later.

Bringing Fannie and Freddie to heel will be difficult for the Bush administration, despite the GSEs' (Government-Sponsored Enterprises') parlous financial condition. Consider their history. In the early 1980s Fannie was effectively insolvent, but the government allowed it to continue operating. Eventually long-term interest rates dropped, bolstering the value of the company's mortgages and bringing it back from the brink. Earlier in the current decade Fannie and Freddie successfully fought a full-scale attempt by the White House and some brave Republican legislators to clamp down on their operations, after they were caught perpetrating accounting frauds.
Note, too, that Fannie and Freddie have nonpareil lobbying operations and formidable political strength, owing to their hefty donations and penchant for hiring former political operatives. Besides, the agencies claim they've landed in their current predicament through no fault of their own. As Freddie Mac Chairman and CEO Richard Syron recently put it, the GSEs have been hit by a "100-year storm" in the housing market, accentuated by some higher-risk mortgages that they were forced to buy to meet government affordable-housing targets.

The latter contention is more than disingenuous. A substantial portion of Fannie's and Freddie's credit losses comes from $337 billion and $237 billion, respectively, of Alt-A mortgages that the agencies imprudently bought or guaranteed in recent years to boost their market share. These are mortgages for which little or no attempt was made to verify the borrowers' income or net worth. The principal balances were much higher than those of mortgages typically made to low-income borrowers. In short, Alt-A mortgages were a hallmark of real-estate speculation in the ex-urbs of Las Vegas or Los Angeles, not predatory lending to low-income folks in the inner cities.
In the current bailout the Bush administration is playing from strength. Not only have the GSEs' stocks been decimated, but trading in their debt -- whether the $1.6 trillion of corporate obligations or $3.6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities the two have guaranteed -- would have been in disarray had the recent housing bill not made explicit the U.S. government's backing of that debt. Even so, GSE debt spreads are starting to widen, relative to Treasury yields.

An insider in the Bush administration tells Barron's Fannie and Freddie are being jawboned by the Treasury Department and their new regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), to raise more equity. But government officials don't expect the agencies to succeed.}

lunar 18.08.2008 08:36


17.08.08 19:57 Uhr |
News-ID: 723264

Schweiz: In den letzten fünf Jahren wurden acht Babys zu Tode geschüttelt

Der Kinderarzt Ulrich Lips aus Zürich hat zusammen mit dem Bund Schweizer Kinderärzte 2002 angefangen, Kopfverletzungen bei Babys genauer zu untersuchen, um festzustellen, ob ein Kind totgeschüttelt wurde.

Bis zur Mitte des Jahres 2007 wurden 53 Verdachtsfälle gemeldet: 50 Säuglinge wurden tatsächlich heftig geschüttelt. Von diesen Fällen starben acht Kinder. 20 % dieser Babys werden mit schweren Behinderungen leben müssen und ein Drittel wird leicht behindert bleiben.

Ein weiteres Drittel von den 50 Babys hat das Schütteltrauma unbeschadet überlebt. Im Durchschnitt lag das Alter der Säuglinge bei etwa sieben Monaten. Es soll allerdings auch eine Dunkelziffer geben, aus 13 Kantonen kam keine Meldung. Kinderarzt Lips glaubt nicht, dass es in den letzten fünf Jahren dort keinen einzigen Fall gab. sollen meistens Männer/Väter gewesen sein - völlig entnervt ob des BabySchreiens, wobei kaum eine böse Absicht dahinter stecke :rolleyes
laut schweiz. Nachrichten soll das im europäischen Durchschnitt liegen :rolleyes und Aufklärung sei notwendig :schwitz

lunar 18.08.2008 10:51

...und weiter mit dem FED-Krimi - hätte nie gedacht, dass ich mal eine Krimi-Leserin werde ;):hihi es ist wirklich spannend :cool ist natürlich vieles schon bekannt ;)

The Goldsmiths--Part I

-- Posted Monday, 18 August 2008 | Digg This Article | Source:

By R.D. Bradshaw

In March 2008, gold hit a high of around $1030 per ounce. By mid-August, it had collapsed to $772. Similar falls happened to most of the commodities and foreign currencies. Wheat went from a high of $13-15 to $7-8 per bushel; Silver, soybeans and corn all crashed as well. Even the EURO currency went from almost $1.60 to $1.46 and oil fell from $149 to $111.

Here, the question must be asked--how is it possible that these prices can collapse in just a matter of days? For the answer, one must address the subject of the historic goldsmiths and how they are still around today and still making money--like never before. This article and two succeeding ones will broach this theme.

As a backdrop on this topic, here are a couple of quotes. Per Thomas Jefferson, in 1800, “Everything predicted by the enemies of now coming to pass. We are to be ruined by a deluge of bank paper” (Dec 2002, “Radio Liberty,” p. 1). In 1850, Thomas Webster added: “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money” (ibid, p. 1).

Some History

The story of banking and paper money evidently started with ancient goldsmiths. In the early days, it was a known axiom that gold and silver particularly (and other precious metals and stones as well) were recognized as things of value and could be used for exchange purposes. Accordingly, goldsmiths appeared on the scene to provide some services for people with gold.......

The only problem with this system was that when the goldsmith issued more receipts than there was gold he ran the risk of facing a run on his operation and would not be able to cover all of the receipts he had issued. Of course, people not receiving gold for their receipts would get mad and often hang the goldsmiths. Goldsmithing could be a risky business whenever the goldsmiths tried to cheat the public (which was often)......(das waren noch Zeiten :supi)

King Louie was persuaded by some bankers to issue huge quantities of paper money which were not backed by gold or hard assets. Inflation took off and the people ultimately got fed up with conditions. They rose up in rebellion and proceeded to chop Louie’s head off (along with numbers of other government leaders).......:o

Moving in on the US .....The next step needed to sell this thing was to allow the president to appoint a seven member overall board of governors. But wisely, the bankers organized their system by making this board a figure head operation when they wisely created a controlling entity called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC makes the key decisions for the central bank.

Though the so-called board of governors are members of the FOMC, the Fed law wisely provided that all 12 participating private bankers are full participants in all FOMC meetings, discussions, plans and activities--although only five of these private bankers can vote on Fed actions at FOMC meetings.....

If the Fed loses five or ten billion dollars in Fed notes in the markets, it is no big deal because the Fed can simply print more of them (although it should be obvious to anyone above the idiot level that this squander of money belongs to US taxpayers who will have to pick up the liability for all of these Federal Reserve Notes and bank credits which have been liberally distributed around the world to make profits for the Fed owners and insiders).

This type of Fed information on Fed actions is highly secret and no one knows much about it except the Fed’s secret owners, people on the inside in the Fed, and brokers who execute orders for the Fed. Of course, it goes without saying that these insiders do tip off and keep some of their friends, relatives and colleagues apprised of what all is going on.
Thus, Fed owners (seemingly like the Rockefellers, Warburgs, Lazards and Rothschilds), agents (like perhaps JP Morgan-Chase and Goldman-Sachs) and friends (maybe George Soros) will always know in advance which way things are going in order to make huge profits......

Thus, the people who control or have access to the Fed (i.e., the large international banks and bankers—possibly like the Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Warburgs, City Bank of NY, J. P. Morgan-Chase, Bank of NY, Kuhn Loeb and Company, Goldman-Sachs, etc--but this list does not include most of the small town local banks which are not privy to this operation) also own or control the US media powers (like ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, AOL-Time-Warner, the Washington Post, Newsweek, etc)......

Probably, the international bankers running things hope to contain the collapse when it comes in order to preserve the Fed. But maybe things will get out of hand and they will lose control (as they almost did in 1929). In fact, maybe the US government will be totally and completely destroyed in the coming upheaval. If this happens, there will be no Federal Reserve Bank or dollar to run things in America for any period of time......

The artificial push-up of the US dollar by the Fed and various central banks in the past several weeks does not change reality. The US dollar is sick and weak. It is going down the tubes in a crash—not whether, but only of when.....

Yes, the real problem has been and is with the American political leaders who have willingly debased and corrupted the American money system (in order to get votes and be re-elected). And it is the plutocratic rulers who supply much of the money to politicians for them to be re-elected. Tragically, many Americans are obsessed with the nonsense that the US is a republic or democracy. The truth is that it is a plutocracy ruled by the super rich, many of whom are goldsmiths/bankers.
-- Posted Monday, 18 August 2008

full story:

...leider habe ich über den Autor -
R.D. Bradshaw - nichts gefunden :(

lunar 18.08.2008 11:00

1 Anhang/Anhänge
:rolleyes Tages-Anzeiger von heute - merci

lunar 18.08.2008 15:56

Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) Mon Aug-18-08 06:24 AM
Response to Reply #5
15. Morgan Stanley, Goldman change lending systems -FT
Aug 18 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are responding to the credit crisis with a system that uses the market's view of their own creditworthiness as a basis for lending decisions, the Financial Times reported.

Wall Street's second-largest investment bank Morgan Stanley is essentially tying its promise to provide financing to hedge fund clients to the price of credit insurance on its own debt, it said.

If the cost of the protection rises to a certain level, that would trigger a reduction in Morgan Stanley's commitments to hedge funds, the quoted people familiar with the situation as saying.

The message is that "if our firm is in trouble, we would rather fund ourselves than fund you (hedge funds)," the paper quoted a brokerage executive with knowledge of the arrangements as saying.

Goldman Sachs, which has largely avoided the credit losses hobbling its rivals, is understood to have a similar arrangement that uses its bond prices as a reference point for credit commitments to hedge fund clients, the paper said.

...als ob die schon mal anders gehandelt hätten :o

lunar 18.08.2008 16:05

1 Anhang/Anhänge

lunar 18.08.2008 16:19

ozymandius (1000+ posts) Mon Aug-18-08 06:12 AM
Response to Original message 8. Bernanke Tries to Define What Institutions Fed Could Let Fail Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is still trying to define which financial institutions it's safe to let fail. The longer it takes him to decide, the tougher the decision becomes.

In the year since credit markets seized up, the 54-year- old Federal Reserve chairman has repeatedly expanded the central bank's protective role, turning its balance sheet into a parking lot for Wall Street's hard-to-finance bonds and offering loans through its discount window to investment banks and mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The lack of clearly defined limits may put the Fed's independence at risk as Congress discovers that its $900 billion portfolio can be used for emergency bailouts that might otherwise require politically sensitive appropriations and taxes.


He granted a congressional request to accept bonds backed by student loans as collateral for Fed securities loans. And he didn't object when Congress inserted a provision into the housing bill signed into law last month that makes it easier for the Fed to lend to failed banks under government control.

Is he getting leery of helicopters now? Roland99 Aug-18-08 06:59 AM #19
Finding Self in Hole - Bernanke digs Deeper UpInArms Aug-18-08 07:56 AM #27
How to solve the financial crisis? Play for time, pray for markets to turn. UpInArms Aug-18-08 08:44 AM #40
So, not just usury, but usury with no possible downside. Ghost Dog Aug-18-08 10:22 AM #51
Moral Hazad? ....Moral Shmazard! MilesColtrane Aug-18-08 09:19 AM #43

....schade, dass es keine Wetten gibt auf die, welche sicher nicht fallen gelassen werden, obwohl - das wissen ja eh alle :o:mad

``The Fed has a terrific reputation as a credible institution. We have to be cautious not to undertake things that put that credibility at risk.'' :kiff

Silverbay 18.08.2008 16:34

tagi ...
quote lunar

... der ist gut ! – sollte man am Paradeplatz austeilen.


lunar 19.08.2008 13:50

Page last updated at 09:46 GMT, Tuesday, 19 August 2008 10:46 UK

US bank 'to fail within months'

A "whopper" bank is going to "go under", Mr Rogoff said

The global financial crisis is set to get worse, with a large US bank likely to collapse in the next few months, a former IMF chief economist has warned.

Kenneth Rogoff's comments came as shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sank on a report that the home lenders would, in effect, be nationalised.

Despite hopes that the US economy had turned the corner, Mr Rogoff claimed it was "not out of the woods".

"I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he said.

"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months," said Mr Rogoff, who held the IMF role between 2001 and 2004.

"We're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks.".....

full story:

lunar 19.08.2008 17:47

bei DU gesehen - merci
:schwitz .

lunar 19.08.2008 17:58

Woodward exposes Bush "secrets"

The Associated Press
Article Launched: 08/19/2008 12:30:00 AM MDT

NEW YORK — The name of Bob Woodward's fourth investigative work on the Bush administration has finally been revealed, just three weeks before the book's release.

"The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008" will be published Sept. 8 by Simon & Schuster with an announced first printing of 900,000 copies.

"There has not been such an authoritative and intimate account of presidential decision-making since the Nixon tapes and the Pentagon Papers," Woodward's longtime editor, Alice Mayhew, said Tuesday. "This is the declassification of what went on in secret, behind the scenes."

Just in time to be years too late

lunar 19.08.2008 18:13

August 19, 2008
The Mindlessness is Total

Are You Ready for Nuclear War?

Pervez Musharraf, the puppet installed by the US to rule Pakistan in the interest of US hegemony, resigned August 18 to avoid impeachment. Karl Rove and the Diebold electronic voting machines were unable to control the result of the last election in Pakistan, the result of which gave Pakistanis a bigger voice in their government than America’s. :rolleyes

It was obvious to anyone with any sense -- which excludes the entire Bush Regime and almost all of the “foreign policy community -- that the illegal and gratuitous US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and Israel’s 2006 bombing of Lebanon civilians with US blessing, would result in the overthrow of America’s Pakistani puppet.

The imbecilic Bush Regime ensured Musharraf’s overthrow by pressuring their puppet to conduct military operations against tribesmen in Pakistani border areas, whose loyalties were to fellow Muslims and not to American hegemony. When Musharraf’s military operations didn’t produce the desired result, the idiotic Americans began conducting their own military operations within Pakistan with bombs and missiles. This finished off Musharraf......

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.He can be reached at:

full story:
...ein ziemlich heftiger Artikel :schwitzscheint aber ein Kenner der Umstände zu sein :rolleyes um so mehr :schwitz

lunar 20.08.2008 09:38


What appears to be some normal-sized machine cropped and pasted onto a skyline is actually a gigantic machinized monstrosity designed for excavation by some Germans. Those things that look like saw teeth big enough to cut down the Empire State Building are actually buckets, each of which could pretty much scoop up your whole house.
If this thing's secretly a transformer, we're screwed.

lunar 20.08.2008 14:32

bei DU gesehen - merci

lunar 20.08.2008 14:50

Demeter (1000+ posts) Wed Aug-20-08 06:19 AM
Response to Reply #7 13. Paulson Playing Chicken With Markets: Guess Who Will Win? (GSE Edition)

James Carville, Clinton strategist, said,

I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a .400 baseball hitter, but now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.

If a politico like Carville recognized the fixed income market as an irresistible force, you'd think a Wall Street pro like Henry Paulson would give it the respect it deserves. But peculiarly, he has been acting as if he can bluster his way through a mushrooming crisis of confidence in Fannie and Freddie.

A Barron's report over the weekend saying that the Treasury would buy GSE preference shares (and wipe out equity holders) if the companies failed to raise new equity sent the shares into a downdraft, with Freddie's falling 25% and Fannie's, 22%, triggering a broader market fall in the US that continued overnight in Tokyo. More troubling, GSE debt also fell, as Accrued Interest reported:

GSE securities of all types getting hit hard today. Interestingly, both the common and preferred shares are down ~20%. Sub debt some 200bps wider with poor liquidity. Even senior paper is 7-8bps wider on the day. MBS look to be only about 4bps wider.

I've heard there has been panicky selling by retail investors in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae senior notes. One trader told me he's been up to his eyeballs in 100 bond lots today. Haven't heard of aggressive Asian selling, but with zero buying there are clearly net outflows from overseas.

So what reaction did this mini-meltdown elicit from the Administration? The Wall Street Journal tells us:

In early July, a previous plunge in the companies' shares prompted the U.S. Treasury to announce a package of measures aimed at shoring up investor confidence. Among other things, the Treasury said it would lend money to the companies or make equity investments in them if needed.

"As the secretary has said many times, we have no plans on using the authority," Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli said Monday, referring to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

This is about as lame as it gets. I'm sure a PR pro could do better, but the right response is reassurance from Paulson himself: the markets are on the mend, yes, there may be bumps but things are getting better, we are on the case, will act if necessary but don't see the need, Freddie and Fannie have plans in progress to improve their balance sheets. That probably wouldn't undo what Barron's hath wrought, but it would halt the slide and produce at least a partial reversal. Investors want to hear that the powers that be are engaged and willing to pull the trigger.

What is even worse from the Adminsitration's standpoint is that savvy observers see the bailout plan as a sham. As the Financial Times reports:

The Treasury dismissed the report as “speculation”. It told the Financial Times it still had no intention of using its newly authorised power to invest in either the debt or equity of Fannie and Freddie. The question is whether it may be forced to do so.

The logic of the plan unveiled on July 13 was that the market would be reassured by the Treasury obtaining authority to invest in Fannie and Freddie, reducing the likelihood that the government would actually have to bail them out....

“Hank Paulson’s gamble is that if the Treasury commits to investing in Fannie and Freddie it will never have to put money in,” said Alex Pollock, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

In other words, this was all meant to be a bluff. But the markets have called the bluff in very short order. And given the lousy and certain-not-to-get-better-anytime-soon condition of Freddie and Fannie, this outcome was entirely predictable.

What is ever weirder about the Administration's inept denials is that they seem to be quietly moving forward in examining rescue options. A Wall Street Journal editorial, "When Henry Met Fannie," tells us:

Meantime, Treasury claims it has no plans to inject taxpayer money directly into the companies. Even so, Mr. Paulson has quietly hired Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, to look into "appropriate capital structures" if he does decide to sign the blank check that Congress has given him.

Robert Scully, the Morgan banker who will lead the effort, is by all accounts a straight shooter. And he will need to be, given the enormous political pressure he will soon face from Fannie Mae's defenders, both at Morgan and in Washington. Morgan Stanley says it is forgoing any other investment banking business with Fan and Fred while it works for Treasury. But until recently it was among the banks advising Freddie on that elusive $5.5 billion capital infusion.

Morgan Stanley is also home to Kenneth Posner, one of the biggest Fan and Fred cheerleaders on Wall Street. Only last March, the analyst crowed about the "complete defeat" of the "anti-GSE ideologues" -- that is, the people who had been right all long about the reckless risks the companies were taking. Mr. Posner also predicted that Fannie and Freddie would return to breakeven by the third quarter. Mr. Scully shouldn't be caught in the same intellectual area code as Mr. Posner.

Disclosure: I knew Scully early on in his career. He is indeed as upstanding as they come in investment banking (yes, that is an oxymoron), very well regarded.

So why is Paulson unhelpfully (as far as market confidence is concerned) denying that he will salvage the GSEs, yet moving forward to develop plans to do precisely that? Oh, I forgot. The SIV rescue plan. Hope Now Alliance. Getting China to open its financial markets. Having JP Morgan buy Bear for $2 a share. Execution has not been the Adminstration's or Paulson's strong suit. Why should now be any different?

lunar 20.08.2008 17:22

...ein Spruch der immer und immer wieder bei den CNBClern (total Wallstreet hörig) auftaucht - das müsste ihnen doch selber zu denken geben :rolleyes

"....what does Goldman Sachs know - what others might not"

lunar 20.08.2008 17:34

...das scheint auch ein Schrecken ohne Ende zu sein :(

Taliban Escalate Fighting With Assault on U.S. Base

Rafiq Maqbool/Associated Press
A French armored vehicle on its way to Sarobi, where insurgents killed 10 paratroopers Tuesday.

Published: August 19, 2008
BAMIYAN, AfghanistanTaliban insurgents mounted their most serious attacks in six years of fighting in Afghanistan over the last two days, including a coordinated assault by at least 10 suicide bombers against one of the largest American military bases in the country, and another by about 100 insurgents who killed 10 elite French paratroopers.....

full story:

lunar 20.08.2008 18:27

gesehen bei ---> Jesse's Café Américain - merci
....eben immer wieder erfrischend (wie und das er es sagt - nicht was er sagt, das ist eher deprimierend :()

Tuesday, August 19th, 2008

Exclusive Interview: Jim Rogers Predicts Bigger Financial Shocks Loom, Fueling a Malaise That May Last for Years [The First of Two Parts.]

Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

VANCOUVER, B.C. – The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep – and the government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail out such companies as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) – that even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.

Indeed, the U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained – and a so-called “Super Crash” so likely – that most Americans alive today won’t be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is finally cleared away – if it ever is, Rogers said.

The end of this crisis “is a long way away,” Rogers said. “In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes.”

During a 40-minute interview during a wealth-management conference in this West Coast Canadian city last month, Rogers also said that:

  • U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke should “resign” for the bailout deals he’s handed out as he’s tried to battle this credit crisis.
  • That the U.S. national debt – the roughly $5 trillion held by the public– essentially doubled in the course of a single weekend because of the Fed-led credit crisis bailout deals.
  • That U.S. consumers and investors can expect much-higher interest rates – noting that if the Fed doesn’t raise borrowing costs, market forces will make that happen.
  • And that the average American has no idea just how bad this financial crisis is going to get.
“The next shock is going to be bigger and bigger, still,” Rogers said. “The shocks keep getting bigger because we keep propping things up … [and] bailing everyone out.”.....

.....(Q):What would Chairman Bernanke have to do to “get it right?”

Rogers: Resign......

.......(Q):Earlier this year, when we talked in Singapore, you made the observation that the average American still doesn’t know anything’s wrong – that anything’s happening. Is that still the case?


(Q):What would you tell the “Average Joe” in no-nonsense terms?

Rogers:I would say that for the last 200 years, America’s elected politicians and scoundrels have built up $5 trillion in debt. In the last few weekends, some un-elected officials added another $5 trillion to America’s national debt.

Suddenly we’re on the hook for another $5 trillion. There have been attempts to explain this to the public, about what’s happening with the debt, and with the fact that America’s situation is deteriorating in the world.

I don’t know why it doesn’t sink in. People have other things on their minds, or don’t want to be bothered. Too complicated, or whatever.

I’m sure when the [British Empire] declined there were many people who rang the bell and said: “Guys, we’re making too many mistakes here in the U.K.” And nobody listened until it was too late.

When Spain was in decline, when Rome was in decline, I’m sure there were people who noticed that things were going wrong.....

.....It was similar in the United Kingdom. In 1918, the U.K. was the richest, most powerful country in the world. It had just won the First World War, et cetera. By 1939, it had exchange controls and this is in just one generation. And strict exchange controls. They in fact made it an act of treason for people to use anything except the pound sterling in settling debts.

(Q): Treason? Wow, I didn’t know that.

Rogers:Yes…an act of treason. It used to be that people could use anything they wanted as money. Gold or other metals. Banks would issue their own currencies. Anything. You could even use other people’s currencies.

Things were so bad in the U.K. in the 1930s they made it an act of treason to use anything except sterling and then by ’39 they had full-exchange controls. And then, of course, they had the war and that disaster. It was a disaster before the war. The war just exacerbated the problems. And by the mid-70s, the U.K. was bankrupt. They could not sell long-term government bonds. Remember, this is a country that two generations or three generations before had been the richest most powerful country in the world.

Now the only thing that saved the U.K. was the North Sea oil fields, even though Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher likes to take credit, but Margaret Thatcher has good PR. Margaret Thatcher came into office in 1979 and North Sea oil started flowing. And the U.K. suddenly had a huge balance-of-payment surplus.

You know, even if Mother Teresa had come in [as prime minister] in ’79, or Joseph Stalin, or whomever had come in 1979 – you know, Jimmy Carter, George Bush, whomever – it still would’ve been great.

You give me the largest oil field in the world and I’ll show you a good time, too. That’s what happened.....

.....(Q): That’s going to be terrifying for individual investors to think about. Rogers:Yeah. But remember that America had such a magnificent and gigantic position of dominance that deterioration will take time. You know, you don’t just change that in a decade or two. It takes a lot of hard work by a lot of incompetent people to change the situation. The U.K. situation I just explained…that decline was over 40 or 50 years, but they had so much money they could have continued to spiral downward for a long time....

full story:

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