Wed 29 Oct 2008
Cuomo: Bonuses For TARP Fund Recipients Illegal Under NY Law
Posted by alyx under all ur bankz , bailout
Far more interesting than the rate cut is this little gem from Reuters:
NY Attorney General Cuomo warns 9 banks due to receive funds from TARP that bonus payments may be illegal under NY state law: report 2:11pm EDT
Bring it on. We already knew he was seeking more information.
ED, 3:30pmEST… finally the full story:
“Specifically, corporate expenditures and payments, made in the absence of fair consideration of undercapitalized firms, may well violate NY Debtor and Creditor Law 274, which deems such payments illegal fraudulent conveyances,” Cuomo’s letter said.Fraudulent conveyance = coal in lots of stockings courtesy of the NY attorney general. Or, in more general parlance, “take that.”
.....ob die Warnung nützt - was kann man nicht alles mauscheln um an die Kohle zu kommen :mad
Bush Trying to Avoid War Crimes Charges - Jack Cafferty
by Paisano1 | October 29, 2008 at 08:45 pm | 79 views | 1 comment
Bush Trying to Avoid War Crimes Charges
2 Minute Video
President Bush is trying to pardon himself
Should Congress pass a bill giving immunity to President Bush for possible war crimes?
Plumbing the Depths of Depravity
by Rob Kirby | October 29, 2008
Print First, for a bit of historical context, a little bit of fact-finding pertaining to Henry Paulson, complements of my friend, Jesse:
“I didn't know he was a member of the Nixon White House as his first 'real job.'
In 1970, fresh from the Masters program of the Harvard Business School, Paulson entered the Nixon administration, working first as staff assistant to the assistant secretary of defense.
In 1972-73, Paulson worked as office assistant to John Erlichman, assistant to the president for domestic affairs. Erlichman was one of the key figures involved in organizing President Richard Nixon’s notorious "plumbers" unit that carried out illegal covert operations against the president’s political opponents, including espionage, blackmail, and revenge. Erlichman resigned in 1973, and in 1975 he was convicted of obstruction of justice, perjury, and conspiracy, and was imprisoned for 18 months.
Utilizing his connections, Paulson went to work for Goldman Sachs in 1974. In a 2007 feature, the British newspaper the Guardian wrote, "Not only was he well connected enough to get the job [in the Nixon White House], but well connected enough to resign in the thick of the Watergate scandal without ever getting caught up in the fallout. He went straight to Goldman back home in Illinois."
Birds of a Feather Fly Together: The Plumbers Live On in Infamy
One thing that can be said for Henry Paulson – he’s no average Joe. Through the use of overt threats, the Fed / Treasury tandem has connived law makers into further compromise of the public purse to insulate bank’s balance sheets while the average Jane and Joe see their personal net worth’s continue to deteriorate at an alarming pace:
Congressman Brad Sherman of California's 27th congressional district told the House in a speech on Thurs evening [Oct. 2nd] that several fellow Congressional representatives have said they were threatened with the prospect 'Martial Law' should they vote in opposition to the $700 billion bailout.
Congressman Sherman's revelation comes after multiple claims that this threat was being ramped up to aid the now $850 billion bail out through the House this past Friday.
According to numerous Congressional testimonies, the stark panic atmosphere which has gripped both Congress and the US media was intentionally created in order to 'fast-track' a financial bailout bill. Several members of Congress were told before Monday's vote that martial law might be instigated in America if the legislation failed.
During his speaking time on Thurs, Congressman Sherman stated explicitly, "Many of us were told in private conversations, that if we didn't pass this bill on Monday, the sky would fall, the market would drop two or three thousand points, another couple thousand the second day, and a few members were even told that there would be Martial Law in America if we voted no (to the bail out bill)."
Viewers can watch his actual testimony [CSPAN broadcast] from the House floor here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnbNm6hoBXc
The Bail-Out Was Never Intended for Main Street.....
.......WASHINGTON (AP) — Five years ago, Ben Bernanke posed the prescient question in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, "What Happens When Greenspan is Gone?" … ….In the world of economic theory and policy, Bernanke, 51, has espoused targeting inflation, stressed the importance of communication and transparency by the Fed and argued that the final say on debts and deficits lies with the president and Congress….
When one stops to consider that the foundations of the science of ‘economics’ is built upon the study of past conditions and events and looking for similarities in modern times; we can use this methodology to predict likely outcomes in the here-and-now.
Well, we’ve got intrinsically valuable tangibles [commodities and real estate] prices being ENGINEERED down by monetary authorities. Bank’s balance sheets are being “artificially” bolstered by their partners in government to take advantage of depressed prices prior to “REFLATION” [likely to be signified by the cessation of issuance of Cash Management Bills?]. And heck, the most bankrupt entity on the planet – the U.S. Treasury – is even getting in on the act by purchasing mortgaged backed securities for ‘pennies on the dollar’. Just think about that: when the great reflation occurs – The U.S. Treasury might even have their pitiful “leaky” balance sheet restored and made whole once again?........
full story: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/e.../2008/1029.html
Die freie Wirtschaft
Ihr sollt die verfluchten Tarife abbauen.
Ihr sollt auf euern Direktor vertrauen.
Ihr sollt die Schlichtungsausschüsse verlassen.
Ihr sollt alles Weitere dem Chef überlassen.
Kein Betriebsrat quatsche uns mehr herein,
wir wollen freie Wirtschaftler sein!
Fort die Gruppen - sei unser Panier!
Na, ihr nicht.
Ihr braucht keine Heime für eure Lungen,
keine Renten und keine Versicherungen.
Ihr solltet euch allesamt was schämen,
von dem armen Staat noch Geld zu nehmen!
Ihr sollt nicht mehr zusammenstehn -
wollt ihr wohl auseinandergehn!
Keine Kartelle in unserm Revier!
Wir bilden bis in die weiteste Ferne
Trusts, Kartelle, Verbände, Konzerne.
Wir stehen neben den Hochofenflammen
in Interessengemeinschaften fest zusammen.
Wir diktieren die Preise und die Verträge -
kein Schutzgesetz sei uns im Wege.
Gut organisiert sitzen wir hier ...
Was ihr macht, ist Marxismus. Nieder damit!
Wir erobern die Macht, Schritt für Schritt.
Niemand stört uns. In guter Ruh
sehn Regierungssozialisten zu.
Wir wollen euch einzeln. An die Gewehre!
Das ist die neuste Wirtschaftslehre.
Die Forderung ist noch nicht verkündet,
die ein deutscher Professor uns nicht begründet.
In Betrieben wirken für unsere Idee
die Offiziere der alten Armee,
die Stahlhelmleute, Hitlergarden ...
Ihr, in Kellern und in Mansarden,
merkt ihr nicht, was mit euch gespielt wird?
Mit wessen Schweiß der Gewinn erzielt wird?
Komme, was da kommen mag.
Es kommt der Tag,
da ruft der Arbeitspionier:
Aber Wir. Wir. Wir."
Kurt Tucholsky alias Theobald Tiger in "Die Weltbühne", 1930
Table 1. Global Monetary Growth Rates (Y/Y % Chg)
Source: Bloomberg LP
Developments such as these will be bullish for gold long term, and with gold shares representing a bargain relative to both gold bullion and energy shares, investments in gold stocks at these depressed values will likely be rewarded in the years ahead.
Chris Puplava - http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
30. Oktober 2008, Neue Zürcher Zeitung
Der Geldhandel über die Börse gewinnt an Bedeutung
Zugang zu Liquidität über Eurex Repo eliminiert Gegenparteirisiko
Banken verlangen vermehrt Sicherheiten, wenn sie sich gegenseitig Geld ausleihen. Eurex Repo bietet den Instituten den gesicherten Geldhandel über einen elektronischen Markt an. Als Basis für die Sicherung dienen Titel, die die EZB bei ihren Tendergeschäften akzeptiert.
cei. Frankfurt, 29. Oktober
Banken stellen einander über den Tag hinaus kaum noch Geld ohne Sicherheiten zur Verfügung, denn die Finanzmarktkrise hat sich seit der Insolvenz von Lehman Brothers noch drastisch verschärft. Wenig beachtet wurde bisher, dass am Geldmarkt seit Mitte der neunziger Jahre das gesicherte Segment – also der Verleih von Geld gegen Wertschriften als Pfand – stark an Bedeutung gewonnen hat. Laut Europäischer Zentralbank (EZB) macht dieser sogenannte Repo-Handel mittlerweile 34% der Abschlüsse aus, während auf den ungesicherten Handel, bei dem die Ausleihungen nicht mit Wertpapieren unterlegt sind, 21% entfallen. Der Rest des Geldmarktes verteilt sich auf Index- und Devisen-Swaps. Angestossen wurde der Repo-Markt Mitte der neunziger Jahre durch die Notenbanken. Die Bank of England und die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) entschlossen sich, den Geschäftsbanken nur noch gegen Sicherheiten Kredite einzuräumen. Die SNB setzte dabei von Anfang an auf den elektronischen Handel. Im Euro-Gebiet ist dagegen die Infrastruktur bei der Abwicklung und bei der Verwahrung von Wertpapieren stark zersplittert, weshalb sich der elektronische Handel nur allmählich durchsetzt......
......Eine zentrale Gegenpartei Wie bei Börsen üblich, erfolgt auch der Handel im Segment GC Pooling über eine zentrale Gegenpartei: Wer Geld ausleiht, muss sich somit nicht darüber Gedanken machen, ob er im Gegenzug auch wirklich Sicherheiten erhält. Das erledigt für ihn die zentrale Gegenpartei, in diesem Fall Eurex Clearing. Und wenn die Sicherheiten an Wert verlieren, dann sorgt die zentrale Gegenpartei dafür, dass die Bank, die Geld nachgefragt hat, das Loch wieder auffüllt. Der Handel ist dabei anonym, man weiss also nicht, wer auf der Gegenseite gerade Geld braucht oder zur Verfügung stellt.
In der gegenwärtigen Krise wird diese Anonymität von den Banken geschätzt, um nicht Opfer von Gerüchten zu werden. Das Vertrauen der Banken in den Markt wird gemäss Naas dadurch belegt, dass sich die grösste Transaktion auf 10,5 Mrd. € (für die Laufzeit von einer Woche) belief. Das ist ein hoher Betrag, wenn man bedenkt, dass die EZB über ihre wöchentlichen Tender dem Bankensystem der Euro-Zone jeweils 150 Mrd. bis 200 Mrd. € zuteilt. Das ausstehende Volumen belief sich im September bei GC Pooling auf etwa 50 Mrd. €. Das ist gegenüber dem Niveau vor der Finanzkrise eine Verfünffachung. Der Liquiditätsengpass am ungesicherten Interbankenmarkt hat so manche Bank dazu bewogen, ihre Refinanzierung stärker ins gesicherte Segment zu verschieben. Eurex Repo mit ihrem Segment GC Pooling scheint dabei den Nerv der Zeit getroffen zu haben.
ganzer Artikel: http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirts..._1.1190852.html
Thu 30 Oct 2008
First No Bonuses, Now No Holiday Parties
Posted by alyx under breaking news , cnbc
BREAKING NEWS from CNBC! Your holiday office party is going to fail like never before (thx LoLo for the heads up):
If you enjoyed a live band, don’t be surprised by a DJ this year. If you got a little too tipsy, have no fear of a repeat performance — many open bars will now be coming with time limits, or done away with completely.About a quarter of you will probably have no party at all, two thirds of you will not be allowed to bring a guest, and almost everyone will notice the company has slashed the budget for the event significantly (translated: bring a flask).
Additionally, 82% of companies holding the event during the workday reported they will be unplugging the copiers and locking the paper in the supply case, so if you were planning to Xerox off some copies of your rear end, you are out of luck this year. As a result of all of these changes, we are also forecasting a 22% reduction in adultery- and humiliation-related blackmail for FY ‘09.
:schwitz sehen aber alle noch gut genährt aus :rolleyes
Thu 30 Oct 2008
His Name Is Mudd
Posted by alyx under subprime
Daniel Mudd, former CEO of Fannie Mae, apparently missed out on assertiveness training:
Former Fannie Mae Chief Executive Daniel Mudd wished he said “no” to more of the things the company was asked to do, he told the Wall Street Journal in an interview. “We were asked—or required—to expand lending, to conserve capital while providing liquidity, to meet housing goals for the underserved, to serve shareholders and homeowners alike,” Mudd told the paper.No means no, kids. When that regulatory captain of the football team tries to get you liquored up on leverage and to strip down your capital in the backseat of his car while his buddies Shareholder and Homeowner watch, you tell him you’re not that kind of quasi-governmental institution.
He goes on to say there are two options for Fannie: completely privatize it, or have the government buy up all its stock and nationalize it. Thanks for the insight.
...Alle wissen, hier geht es «nur» um die Rettung einer Bank, die von bonussüchtigen Managern eventualvorsätzlich an die Wand gefahren wurde. Eine Art selbstverursachter Raserunfall mit unversichertem Sachschaden...
...genau das finde ich falsch - warum hat der Staat nicht für den grossen Teil Aktien/Mitbestimmungsrecht bekommen, ist ja unser Geld :rolleyes so sitzt das Steuergeld auf einem Misthaufen und die UBSler können weiterhin Boni verteilen und unfähig wursteln :mad und die grossen Beteiligungsktionäre werden weiter allem zustimmen und sich die Pfründe zuschanzen :gomad ich bin eigentlich kein Freund von Verstaatlichung - aber solchen Leuten gehört ein Tritt in den A**** :o
....Die Entwicklung ist gefährlich. Wer zu lange übervorteilt wird, wird sich zuerst egoistischer und über kurz oder lang selber unfair verhalten. Versicherer kennen die Folgen schon jetzt. Selbst ältere und früher überkorrekte Schweizer melden heute weit öfter mal Waren als gestohlen, die sie gar nie besessen haben.....
...und dass die Jungen ein "leck mich" Stimmung haben kann man ihnen auch nicht verübeln ---> ....Redliche Arbeit lohnt sich nicht. Wer nicht stets nur auf seinen eigenen Vorteil bedacht ist und nicht alle bestehenden und nicht bestehenden Lücken des Gesetzes millimetergenau ausnützt, steht oftmals als Verlierer da.....
:schwitz:gruebel scheinen ja tolle Zeiten vor uns zu liegen :rolleyes ich hoffe das Bild vom vorherigen Posting erfüllt sich nicht :o
-> Posted by goldielocks @ 23:36 pm on October 30, 2008
Anyone seen this before
-> Posted by goldielocks @ 23:21 pm on October 30, 2008
In his breakthrough cycle analysis book, Wheels Within Wheels , released in 2002, financial market analyst Daniel T. Ferrera presented a 100+ year forecast for the stock market to 2108 . Here we present an excerpt from that forecast for the S&P 500 to 2036. The blue line represents the actual market (monthly close only) up to present, and predicted the 2007 top within 1 week , also forecasting the declines we have currently seen. (Note: Regarding these forecasts, please see disclaimer below. Model price scale does not represent exact market scal
...hier noch etwas mehr von Daniel T. Ferrera
WHAT EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW: WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?
Here we have “zoomed” down into Ferrera's 2002 S&P forecast and compared it (red line) vs. the actual market (blue line) up to the present. Note that the forecast nailed the bottoms of late 2002 and early 2003 and the October 2007 top, and has provided an excellent model of market action to date! But what's next?
FERRERA'S SHORT TERM “MONEYTRAIL” FORECAST
Ferrera presented his weekly “MoneyTrail” indicator in his recent forecast , General Outlook For 2008 , released in January of this year. The "MoneyTrail" indicator accurately forecasted this recent meltdown and is predicting a significant rally for the next three weeks . The yellow line is the S&P 500, the blue line is the forecast, which is around 70% accurate for predicting trend direction and weekly tops and bottoms . There is a pretty strong 8-week cycle that showed up in the data. Money Flow is a displaced 5-period rate of change of the Yield Gap between stocks and high grade bonds. This indicator anticipates the stock market's general direction 5 weeks in advance and currently indicates a 3 week rally though the weeks of November 7th, 14th & 21st, which coincides with the presidential election time period. The General Outlook for 2008 was originally offered at $100, but we have now made this forecast available for free, and you can download it at the following link:
FREE DOWNLOAD OF FERRERA OUTLOOK FOR 2008: http://www.sacredscience.com/ ferrera/Outlook2008.htm
(...funktioniert bei mir leider nicht :()
For full details about Daniel T. Ferrera's publications, including Wheels Within Wheels, with it's market forecasts to 2108, and his articles written for Trader's World Magazine, or to sign up for FERRERA'S EMAIL LIST, visit our website: http://www.sacredscience.com/ ferrera
und noch mehr: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7056.html
Even in a "Market Meltdown" and a "Once-In-A-Lifetime Financial Panic...."
...the Other People's Money (OPM) managers can still find time to paint the tape into the end of month.
When this coat dries, they *might* try to slip on one more layer of paint before the weekend, but if we break to the downside we would look for a complete retrace of this rally to retest the lows.
Why? Because it is based solely on speculation, market manipulation and esperimentation by the Fed and Treasury. It is not based on anything organic to the economy, neither reform nor restructuring.
Wall Street corruption is one of the biggest impediments to an economic recovery. It has become an inefficient obstacle to capital allocation, price discovery, and real economic growth.
The US financial system represents a general systemic risk to the rest of the world because of the manipulation of the US dollar as reserve currency to serve the short term secular interests of a small but powerful financial elite.
Posted by Jesse at 3:25 PM :verbeug
30 October 2008
Charts in the Babson Style for 30 October 2008
The broadest index here, the Russell 2000, suggest that we may have made an important bottom. We will look to see if this is confirmed by the other indices, and by the VIX.
The market is 'guilty until proven innocent' in a bear market downtrend.
As we stated earlier today our bias is to think this is end-of-month paiting of the tape. Do not expect the economy to recover or the financial system to gain efficient function in service of real economic activity until serious reforms are put in place........
Posted by Jesse at 5:37 PM :verbeug
Charts ---> http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspo...30-october.html
31 October 2008
Does a Weakening of Banking Regulation Result in Economic Imbalances and Asset Bubbles?
"The man who is admired for the ingenuity of his larceny is almost always rediscovering some earlier form of fraud. The basic forms are all known, have all been practiced. The manners of capitalism improve. The morals may not."There is a hypothesis that the financial sector in the US is oversized, and as such commands an excessive amount of capital allocation and overly influences GDP. We arrived at this conclusion ourselves by studying the percentage of the major stock indices represented by the financial sector, and the expansion of new financial instruments and forms of credit in the growth of asset bubbles.
There are obviously other explanations for this. One thing to bear in mind is that during the 1990's the financial sector mounted a determined, well-funded, and deliberate assault on the regulations that had been put in place in the 1930's to limit its ability to create exotic instruments and speculate in areas beyond the traditional role of commercial banking.
Financial Relativism: Fraud by Any Other Name 15 May 2008There is an interesting area of study by Thomas Philippon of NYU, which has been written about recently by Zubin Jelveh in Odd Numbers and is starting to receive more widespread attention.
Its interesting because it tends to support the notion that as the financial sector overcomes the regulatory restraints, it begins to expand its influence in the real economy, ultimately distorting its structure through the introduction of asset bubbles, with a resulting period of significant economic contraction. It also results in disproportionate incomes and the polarization of wealth distribution.
Why Has the U.S. Financial Sector Grown so Much? Thomas Philippon
The banks must be restrained from distorting the role of money and finance in the national economy to obtain and direct a disproportionate amount of wealth and power. Such unrestrained financial power is a corrosive influence that destroys the fabric of a free and democratic society by distorting the allocation of resources and corrupting the institutions of the press, of education, and of the government.
Does a weakening of banking regulation result in economic Imbalances and asset bubbles? Yes, always and everywhere.
Posted by Jesse at 1:02 AM :verbeug
G_S Die totale Verarsche der Menschheit, welcome to the NWO :verbeug
Hierzu ein snip :
"Es ist schon bemerkenswert, was Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker, der ältere Bruder unseres ehemaligen Bundespräsidenten, vor 25 Jahren (!) in seinem letzten Buch u.a. schrieb:
Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker
"Der bedrohte Friede – heute", Hanser, München 1994, ISBN 3446176977
Von Weizsäcker sagte in seinem letzten großen Werk "Der bedrohte Frieden" 1983 Hanser-Verlag, innerhalb weniger Jahre den Niedergang des Sowjet Kommunismus voraus (er wurde ausgelacht).
Seine Prognose, auf welches Niveau der Lohn,- Gehaltsabhängige zurückfallen würde, wenn der Kommunismus nicht mehr existiert, war schockierend.
Weizsäcker beschreibt die Auswirkungen einer dann einsetzenden Globalisierung, (obwohl es damals dieses Wort noch nicht gab) so wie er sie erwartete.
1. ..Die Arbeitslosenzahlen werden weltweit ungeahnte Dimensionen erreichen.
2… die Löhne werden auf ein noch nie da gewesenes Minimum sinken.
3…Alle Sozialsysteme werden mit dem Bankrott des Staat zusammenbrechen. Rentenzahlungen zuerst. Auslöser ist eine globale Wirtschaftskrise ungeheurer Dimension, die von Spekulanten ausgelöst wird.
4… ca. 20 Jahre nach dem Untergang des Kommunismus, werden in Deutschland wieder Menschen verhungern.
5… Die Gefahr von Bürgerkriegen steigt weltweit dramatisch.
6… Die herrschende Elite wird gezwungen, zu ihrem eigenen Schutz Privatarmeen zu unterhalten.
7…Um ihre Herrschaft zu sichern werden diese Eliten frühzeitig den totalen Überwachungsstaat schaffen, eine weltweite Diktatur einführen.
8… Die ergebenen Handlanger dieses Geldadels sind korrupte Politiker.
9… Die Kapitalwelt fördert wie eh und je, einen noch nie dagewesen Nationalismus (Faschismus), als Garant gegen einen eventuell wieder erstarkenden Kommunismus.
10… Zum Zweck der Machterhaltung wird man die Weltbevölkerung auf ein Minimum reduzieren. Dies geschieht mittels künstlich erzeugter Krankheiten. Hierbei werden Bio-Waffen als Seuchen deklariert, aber auch mittels gezielten Hungersnöten und Kriegen.
Als Grund dient die Erkenntnis, das die meisten Menschen ihre eigene Ernährung nicht mehr finanzieren können, jetzt wären die Reichen zu Hilfsmaßnahmen gezwungen, andernfalls entsteht für sie ein riesiges, gefährliches Konfliktpotential.
11…Um Rohstoffbesitz und dem eigenen Machterhalt dienend, werden Großmächte Kriege mit Atomwaffen und anderen Massenvernichtungswaffen führen.
12…Die Menschheit wird nach dem Niedergang des Kommunismus, dass skrupelloseste und menschenverachtende System erleben wie es die Menschheit noch niemals zuvor erlebt hat, ihr Armageddon.
Das System, welches für diese Verbrechen verantwortliche ist, heißt "unkontrollierter Kapitalismus".
C. F. von Weizsäcker sagte (vor 25 Jahren), dass sein Buch, welches er als sein letztes großes Werk bezeichnete, mit Sicherheit von der Bevölkerung nicht verstanden würde und die Dinge somit ihren Lauf nehmen!
Das deutsche Volk bewertete er wenig schmeichelhaft wie folgt:
Absolut Obrigkeitshörig, des Denkens entwöhnt, typischer Befehlsempfänger, ein Held vor dem Feind, aber ein totaler Mangel an Zivilcourage!
Der typische Deutsche verteidigt sich erst dann, wenn er nichts mehr hat, was sich zu verteidigen lohnt. Wenn er aber aus seinem Schlaf erwacht ist, dann schlägt er in blindem Zorn alles kurz und klein, auch das was ihm noch helfen könnte.
Die einzige Lösung die Weizsäcker bietet, ist die Hoffnung:
dass nach diesen unvermeidlichen Turbulenzen dieser Planet noch bewohnbar bleibt.
Denn Fakt ist, die kleine Clique denen diese Welt schon jetzt gehört, herrscht nach dem einfachen aber klaren Motto:
"Eine Welt, in der wir nicht das alleinige Sagen haben, die braucht es auch in Zukunft, nicht mehr zu geben" ...."
So will ja auch die US nach Brezinskis "chessbord" die einzige und letzte Supermacht dieses Planeten sein und bleiben, natürlich unter Androhung atomarer preemptive strikes...
1990 + 20 Jahre = werden in Deutschland wieder Menschen verhungern!!
....warum könnte man so vieles "wissen" und macht trotzdem nichts dagegen/dafür :rolleyes:schwitz
merci @blieni :)
Deep Capture the Data
There. Was That So Hard?
October 29th, 2008 by Patrick Byrne
In mid-2004 the Securities & Exchange Commission (itself a kind of a joint venture of the US federal government and Wall Street) adopted Regulation SHO. Among other things, “Reg SHO” insisted that exchanges publish the names of firms being victimized by naked short selling. They left plenty of loopholes (grandfathering, offshore failures, option market making abuse) and used lots of weasel-words to say it, and courteously stipulated no penalties for failing to follow the rules, and gave everybody until January 2005 to figure out new ways around them, but tepid though these measures were, curtailing naked short selling was their basic thrust.
This graph registers the number of companies who have been victimized by naked short selling enough to appear on the Reg SHO list since the day it was first published.
I have maintained all along that naked short selling was not a hard problem to solve: it was just a hard problem to solve without seeing about 20 rich guys get their asses handed to them. And because they were rich and well-connected, efforts to persuade the federal government to enforce the law were getting stopped dead in their tracks.
Somewhere in the middle of 2008, after the horses bolted from the barn, the barn collapsed, the barn burned, and the barn’s ashes scattered to the four winds, the federal government decided to close the barn door. They enacted a subset of the reforms which Deep Capture and a handful of other activists had been suggesting for a few years. The data suggests those reforms are working. I would not stake money on the likelihood that this means much, but hope springs eternal….
Posted in Deep Capture the Data
....und der kleine Goldie Sachs ging.... hmmm - bin schon wieder am träumen :hihi
Posted by linkinn
:supi :bang :supi
US CDS spread is rising fast
(Gladiator) Oct 31, 15:52 U.S. credit default swap spread rising !
On the surface nothing remarkable is happening – the 30 year US Treasury bond yield recently hit an all-time low of 3.88%, as investors sought a safe haven during equity market turbulence. Yet while nominal bond yields have declined, the credit risk component of US Treasuries has been on an increasing trend since last year. According to data provided by CMA DataVision, the credit specialists, the 10-year credit default swap spread – a form of insurance contract against issuer default – has risen steadily - from 1.6 basis points (0.016%) in July 2007, to 16 basis points in March 2008, to 30 basis points in September, to over 40 basis points on October 27. In other words the cost of insuring against a US government default has risen by 25 times in little over a year :eek Similar trends have been evident in the UK and German government bond markets.
Weekend Watching: The Crash of 1929:supi
lohnt sich :cool
...gibt natürlich auch kritische Kommentare :cool
...und passend dazu:
31 October 2008
Avoiding a Great Depression: Rescue, Rebalance, Reform
The 1920's were marked by a credit expansion, a significant growth in consumer debt, the creation of asset bubbles, and the proliferation of financial instruments and leveraged investments. The Federal Reserve expanded the money supply and the Republican government pursued a laissez-faire approach to business.
This helped to create a greater wealth disparity, and saddled a good part of the public with debts on consumables that were vulnerable to an economic contraction.
The bursting of the credit bubble triggered the stock market Crash of 1929. The Hoover administration's response was guided by Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon. As noted by Herbert Hoover in his memoirs, "Mellon had only one formula: 'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.'"
Indeed, the collapse of consumption and credit, and the ensuing 'do nothing' policy of liquidation by the government crippled the economy and drove unemployment up to the incredible 24% level at the climax of the liquidation and deleveraging.
Although some assets fared better than others, virtually everything was caught up in the cycle of liquidation and everything was sold: stocks, bonds, farms, even long dated US Treasuries, all of them collapsing into the bottom in late 1932.
The Federal Reserve made tragic policy errors most certainly with regard to interest rates. They were hampered by a lack of coordinated effort because of the official US policy focus on liquidation and non-interference, along with mass bank failures which rendered their attempts to reflate the money supply as largely futile.
Thrifty management of the credit and monetary levels when the economy is balanced in the manufacturing, service, export-import, and consumption distribution levels is a good policy to follow.
But good policies applied with vigor during a period of economic illness may be like forcing patients seriously ill with pneumonia to swim laps and run in marathons because you think such physical activity is inherently good and beneficial in itself at all times.
Additionally, monetary expansion alone also does not work, as can be seen in the early attempts by the Fed to expand the monetary base without policy initiatives to support expansion and consumption. Hoover's administration raised the income tax and cut spending for a balanced budget.
A combined monetary and government bias to stimulating consumption while restoring balance and correcting the errors that fostered the credit bubble is the more effective course of action.
Today it seems to us that the Fed and Treasury are trying to cure our current problems by filling the banks full of liquidity with the idea that it will eventually trickle down to the real economy through their toll gates.
We believe this will not work. The financial system is rotten, and not only in its toxic and fraudulent assets. It is a weakened, rotten timber that will provide scant leverage for the rescue attempts.
Better to cauterize the bleeds in the financial system and assume a 'trickle up' approach by reaching the econmy through the individual rather than the individual through the banks.
Provide secure FDIC insurance to everyone to a generous degree , and let those banks who must fail, fail. You will encourage reform and savings, we guarantee it. Stimulate work and wages, and then consumption, and the financial system will follow.
While the financial system as it is constituted today remains the centerpiece of our economy, we cannot sustainably recover since it is a source of recurring infection.
Globalists like to cite the introduction of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs as a major factor in the development of the Great Depression. This appears to be largely unsubstantiated, and attributable to a dogmatic bias to international trade as a panacea for failing domestic demand.
In fact, before Smoot-Hawley both exports and imports were in a steep decline as consumption collapsed around the world. If the US had declared itself open for free trade, to whom would they sell, and who in the US would buy? Consumption was in a general collapse around the world. Smoot Hawley did not help, but it also did not hurt because it was largely irrelevant.
It is a lesser discussed topic, but the US held the majority of the gold in the world in 1930 as the aftermath of their position as an industrial power in World War I and the expansion that followed. Since the majority of the countries were on some version of the gold standard, one could make a case that the US had an undue influence on the 'reserve currency of the world' at that time, and its mistaken policies were transmitted via the gold standard to the rest of the world.
The nations that exited the Great Depression the soonest, those who recovered more quickly and experienced a shallower economic downturn, were those who stimulated domestic consumption via public works and industrial policies: Japan, Germany, Italy, Sweden.
As a final point, we like to show this chart to draw a very strong line under the fact that the liquidationist policy of the Hoover Administration caused most assets to suffer precipitous declines. Certainly some fared better than others, such as gold which was pegged, and silver which declined but not nearly as much as industrial metals and certainly financial instruments like stocks which declined 89% from peak to trough.
FDR devalued the dollar by 40%, but he never followed Britain off the gold standard, maintaining fictitious support by outlawing domestic ownership. As the government stepped away from its liquidationist approach the economy gradually recovered and the money supply reinflated, despite the carnage delivered to the US economy and the world, provoking the rise of militarism and statist regimes in many of the developed nations.
There is a fiction that the economy never really recovered, and FDR's policies failed and only a World War caused the recovery. In fact, if one cares to look at the situation more closely, the recession of 1937 was a result of the aggressive military buildup for war in the world, the diversion of capital and resources to non-productive goods and services, and of course the general reversal of the New Deal by the US Supreme Court and the Republican minority in Congress.
As an aside, it is interesting to read about the efforts of some US industrialists to foster a fascist solution here in the US, as their counterparts and some of them had done in Europe.
What finally put the world on the permanent road to recovery was the savings forced by the lack of consumer goods during World War II and the rebuilding of Europe and Asia, devastated by war, significantly aided by the policies of the Allied powers.
A Depression following a Crash caused by an asset bubble collapse is a terrible thing indeed. But it does not have to be a prolonged ordeal.
Governments can and do make policy errors that prolong the period of adjustment, most notably instituting an industrial policy that discourages domestic consumption and money supply growth in a desire to obtain foreign reserves through exports.
From what we have seen thus far, we believe that the Russian experience in the 1990's is going to be closer to what lies ahead for the US. Unless the US adopts an export driven, low domestic consumption, high savings policy bias, non-productive military buildup and public works, and discourages population growth we don't believe the Japanese experience will be repeated.
Preventing the banking system from collapsing is a worthy objective. Perpetuating the symptom of fraud and abuse and 'overreach' that was becoming pervasive in the system before the collapse is not sustainable, instead leading to more frequent and larger collapses.
Balance will be restored, and a reversion to the means will occur, one way or the other. It would be most practical to accomplish this in a peaceful, sustainable manner, with justice and toleration.
Posted by Jesse at 1:35 PM :verbeug
The Triumph of Ignorance
Posted October 28, 2008
Why morons succeed in US politics.
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th October 2008
How was it allowed to happen? How did politics in the US come to be dominated by people who make a virtue out of ignorance? Was it charity that has permitted mankind’s closest living relative to spend two terms as president? How did Sarah Palin, Dan Quayle and other such gibbering numbskulls get to where they are? How could Republican rallies in 2008 be drowned out by screaming ignoramuses insisting that Barack Obama is a Muslim and a terrorist?(1)
Like most people on this side of the Atlantic I have spent my adult life mystified by American politics. The US has the world’s best universities and attracts the world’s finest minds. It dominates discoveries in science and medicine. Its wealth and power depend on the application of knowledge. Yet, uniquely among the developed nations (with the possible exception of Australia), learning is a grave political disadvantage.
There have been exceptions over the past century: Franklin Roosevelt, Kennedy and Clinton tempered their intellectualism with the common touch and survived; but Adlai Stevenson, Al Gore and John Kerry were successfully tarred by their opponents as members of a cerebral elite (as if this were not a qualification for the presidency). Perhaps the defining moment in the collapse of intelligent politics was Ronald Reagan’s response to Jimmy Carter during the 1980 presidential debate. Carter - stumbling a little, using long words - carefully enumerated the benefits of national health insurance. Reagan smiled and said “there you go again”(2). His own health programme would have appalled most Americans, had he explained it as carefully as Carter had done, but he had found a formula for avoiding tough political issues and making his opponents look like wonks.
It wasn’t always like this. The founding fathers of the republic - men like Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, John Adams and Alexander Hamilton - were among the greatest thinkers of their age. They felt no need to make a secret of it. How did the project they launched degenerate into George W Bush and Sarah Palin?
On one level this is easy to answer. Ignorant politicians are elected by ignorant people. US education, like the US health system, is notorious for its failures. In the most powerful nation on earth, one adult in five believes the sun revolves around the earth; only 26% accept that evolution takes place by means of natural selection; two-thirds of young adults are unable to find Iraq on a map; two-thirds of US voters cannot name the three branches of government; the maths skills of 15 year-olds in the US are ranked 24th out of the 29 countries of the OECD(3).
But this merely extends the mystery: how did so many US citizens become so dumb, and so suspicious of intelligence? Susan Jacoby’s book The Age of American Unreason provides the fullest explanation I have read so far. She shows that the degradation of US politics results from a series of interlocking tragedies.
One theme is both familiar and clear: religion - in particular fundamentalist religion - makes you stupid. The US is the only rich country in which Christian fundamentalism is vast and growing.
Jacoby shows that there was once a certain logic to its anti-rationalism. During the first few decades after the publication of The Origin of Species, for example, Americans had good reason to reject the theory of natural selection and to treat public intellectuals with suspicion. From the beginning, Darwin’s theory was mixed up in the US with the brutal philosophy - now known as Social Darwinism - of the British writer Herbert Spencer. Spencer’s doctrine, promoted in the popular press with the help of funding from Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller and Thomas Edison, suggested that millionaires stood at the top of a scala natura established by evolution. By preventing unfit people from being weeded out, government intervention weakened the nation. Gross economic inequalities were both justifiable and necessary(4).
Darwinism, in other words, became indistinguishable to the public from the most bestial form of laissez-faire economics. Many Christians responded with revulsion. It is profoundly ironic that the doctrine rejected a century ago by such prominent fundamentalists as William Jennings Bryan is now central to the economic thinking of the Christian right. Modern fundamentalists reject the science of Darwinian evolution and accept the pseudoscience of Social Darwinism.
But there were other, more powerful, reasons for the intellectual isolation of the fundamentalists. The US is peculiar in devolving the control of education to local authorities. Teaching in the southern states was dominated by the views of an ignorant aristocracy of planters, and a great educational gulf opened up. “In the South”, Jacoby writes, “what can only be described as an intellectual blockade was imposed in order to keep out any ideas that might threaten the social order.”(5)
The Southern Baptist Convention, now the biggest Protestant denomination in the US, was to slavery and segregation what the Dutch Reformed Church was to apartheid in South Africa. It has done more than any other force to keep the South stupid. In the 1960s it tried to stave off desegregation by establishing a system of private Christian schools and universities. A student can now progress from kindergarten to a higher degree without any exposure to secular teaching. Southern Baptist beliefs pass intact through the public school system as well. A survey by researchers at the University of Texas in 1998 found that one in four of the state’s public school biology teachers believed that humans and dinosaurs lived on earth at the same time(6).
This tragedy has been assisted by the American fetishisation of self-education. Though he greatly regretted his lack of formal teaching, Abraham Lincoln’s career is repeatedly cited as evidence that good education, provided by the state, is unnecessary: all that is required to succeed is determination and rugged individualism. This might have served people well when genuine self-education movements, like the one built around the Little Blue Books in the first half of the 20th century, were in vogue. In the age of infotainment it is a recipe for confusion.
Besides fundamentalist religion, perhaps the most potent reason why intellectuals struggle in elections is that intellectualism has been equated with subversion. The brief flirtation of some thinkers with communism a long time ago has been used to create an impression in the public mind that all intellectuals are communists. Almost every day men like Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly rage against the “liberal elites” destroying America.
The spectre of pointy-headed alien subversives was crucial to the election of Reagan and Bush. A genuine intellectual elite - like the neocons (some of them former communists) surrounding Bush - has managed to pitch the political conflict as a battle between ordinary Americans and an over-educated pinko establishment. Any attempt to challenge the ideas of the rightwing elite has been successfully branded as elitism.
Obama has a good deal to offer America, but none of this will come to an end if he wins. Until the great failures of the US education system are reversed or religious fundamentalism withers there will be political opportunities for people, like Bush and Palin, who flaunt their ignorance.
www.monbiot.com - http://www.monbiot.com/archives/200...h-of-ignorance/
....bei diesem Satz steh ich etwas auf der Leitung :rolleyes:(
The spectre of pointy-headed alien subversives was crucial to the election of Reagan and Bush. A genuine intellectual elite - like the neocons (some of them former communists) surrounding Bush - has managed to pitch the political conflict as a battle between ordinary Americans and an over-educated pinko establishment. Any attempt to challenge the ideas of the rightwing elite has been successfully branded as elitism.
Sat 1 Nov 2008
Bulls And Bears Fight It Out
Posted by alyx under links
…literally. From CNNMoney, here’s a slideshow of photos depicting a bull and bear fight in front of the NYSE. Short sellers rejoice - it appears the bear took it for the win, and the bull may not even have been able to make cab fare home.
I’ll have all your poll results later. A few weekend links:
Terry Semel’s daughter loves the Google [Business Sheet - h/t WallStreetFighter] *
Internets, now with 100% more censorship: Australia. [AU HeraldSun] **
If Hank Paulson had a campaign poster [TickerForum - h/t Erik Skiles]
Report widening losses, ask for an increase in the bonus pool. JDS Uniphase for the win [Portfolio] ***
* "Do you even know who I am, f**king idiot?...Google me, you dumb f**k."
...könnte der Satz des Jahres werden ;):lach
** AUSTRALIA will join China in implementing mandatory censoring of the internet under plans put forward by the Federal Government.
*** Corporate Chutzpah of the Week Award
Just when you think corporate boards have exhausted all methods of heedlessly stuffing shareholders' money into executives' pockets, someone finds a new way.
At its annual meeting November 12, JDS Uniphase, the Milpitas, California, telecom equipment maker, will ask shareholders to let company executives increase the size of their equity incentive pool by 40 percent, to 42 million shares from 30 million. That would represent 20 percent of all the company's outstanding shares. :dumm
What has the company's executive bonus pool bought so far? Not exemplary performance: JDS said this week that its fiscal first-quarter loss widened to $16.4 million, or 8 cents a share, from $6.9 million, or 3 cents a share, a year ago. JDS shares have fallen almost 60 percent this year, compared with the less than 35 percent decline in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index........
Rescued bank to pay millions in bonuses
RBS 'making monkeys' out of the government, says Vince Cable
Royal Bank of Scotland, which is being bailed out with £20bn of taxpayers' money, has signalled it is preparing to pay bonuses to thousands of staff despite government pledges to crack down on City pay.
The bank has set aside £1.79bn to cover "staff costs" - including discretionary bonuses - at its investment banking division for the first six months of the year alone. The same division caused a £5.9bn writedown that wiped out the bank's profits for the same period.......
full story: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/...d-vincent-cable
....es ist einfach wirklich nur noch zum :bad irgendwann muss doch dem Bürger der Kragen platzen :mad
....und weiter :gomad
Goldman Sachs ready to hand out £7bn salary and bonus package... after its £6bn bail-out
By Simon Duke
Last updated at 8:55 AM on 30th October 2008
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firm's 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out......
"Der Truthahn, der täglich so freundlich gefüttert wurde und darin jedesmal einen weiteren Beweis für die Funktionstüchtigkeit des Systems fand, fühlte sich am Tag vor seiner Schlachtung am sichersten." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ehemaliger Börsenhändler und Professor für Risikoforschung in New York: "Diese Krise wird das Schlimmste, was die Menschheit je erlebt hat."........
:eek :rolleyes :( ....da kann man nur hoffen :schwitz
allerdings ein tröstlicher Kommentar ;)
Ein alter Mann sitzt auf den Trümmern seines Hauses. Auch drei Tage nach dem schweren Erdbeben in Pakistan gibt es noch Dörfer in der Gebirgsregion im Südwesten des Landes, zu denen bislang keine Hilfe vorgedrungen ist. :(
Zum Klimaschwein entfremdet: Greenpeace-Aktivisten bekleben in Berlin ein 50 mal 17 Meter großes Werbeplakat für den neuen Geländewagen von Mercedes-Benz. Greenpeace fordert von dem Auto-Hersteller den konsequenten Einsatz von Spritspartechnik und den Bau kleinerer und leichterer Fahrzeuge. :mad
China's Canton Fair suffers drop in attendance
Sunday November 2, 7:13 am ET
By William Foreman, Associated Press Writer
China's biggest trade show, Canton Fair, suffers plunging attendance amid financial crisis GUANGZHOU, China (AP) -- China opened the final session of the Canton Fair -- the country's biggest trade show -- on Sunday amid complaints that attendance has been dismal because of the financial crisis clobbering the nation's biggest export markets in the U.S. and Europe.
The biannual event, which started 51 years ago in this freewheeling southern city, has long been a key barometer of global demand for Chinese goods. Foreign buyers traditionally flock to the event to haggle over an astounding array of goods -- everything from wrenches, bathroom sinks and copper tubing to solar panels, laptops, motorcycles and high-heeled shoes.Final attendance figures will not be ready until the fair ends on Nov. 6. But exhibitors and buyers said they have noticed a sharp drop in attendance at the event in Guangzhou, also called Canton.
"It is amazing how empty is. It's frightening," said Christopher Devereux, a British businessman who has been attending the fair for more than a decade.....
full story: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081102/as_c...anton_fair.html
:schwitz ....es breitet sich aus :mad
Paulson's Swindle Revealed
By William Greider
October 29, 2008
The swindle of American taxpayers is proceeding more or less in broad daylight, as the unwitting voters are preoccupied with the national election. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson agreed to invest $125 billion in the nine largest banks, including $10 billion for Goldman Sachs, his old firm. But, if you look more closely at Paulson's transaction, the taxpayers were taken for a ride--a very expensive ride. They paid $125 billion for bank stock that a private investor could purchase for $62.5 billion. That means half of the public's money was a straight-out gift to Wall Street, for which taxpayers got nothing in return.
These are dynamite facts that demand immediate action to halt the bailout deal and correct its giveaway terms. Stop payment on the Treasury checks before the bankers can cash them. Open an immediate Congressional investigation into how Paulson and his staff determined such a sweetheart deal for leading players in the financial sector and for their own former employer. Paulson's bailout staff is heavily populated with Goldman Sachs veterans and individuals from other Wall Street firms. Yet we do not know whether these financiers have fully divested their own Wall Street holdings. Were they perhaps enriching themselves as they engineered this generous distribution of public wealth to embattled private banks and their shareholders?
Leo W. Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers, raised these explosive questions in a stinging letter sent to Paulson this week. The union did what any private investor would do. Its finance experts vetted the terms of the bailout investment and calculated the real value of what Treasury bought with the public's money. In the case of Goldman Sachs, the analysis could conveniently rely on a comparable sale twenty days earlier. Billionaire Warren Buffett invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs and bought the same types of securities--preferred stock and warrants to purchase common stock in the future. Only Buffett's preferred shares pay a 10 percent dividend, while the public gets only 5 percent. Dollar for dollar, Buffett "received at least seven and perhaps up to 14 times more warrants than Treasury did and his warrants have more favorable terms," Gerard pointed out.
"I am sure that someone at Treasury saw the terms of Buffett's investment," the union president wrote. "In fact, my suspicion is that you studied it pretty closely and knew exactly what you were doing. The 50-50 deal--50 percent invested and 50 percent as a gift--is quite consistent with the Republican version of spread-the-wealth-around philosophy."
The Steelworkers' close analysis was done by Ron W. Bloom, director of the union's corporate research and a Wall Street veteran himself who worked at Larzard Freres, the investment house. Bloom applied standard valuation techniques to establish the market price Buffett paid per share compared to Treasury's price. "The analysis is based on the assumption that Warren Buffett is an intelligent third party investor who paid no more for his investment than he had to," Bloom's report explained. "It also assumes that Gold Sachs' job is to protect its existing shareholders so that it extracted from Mr. Buffett the most that it could.... Further, it is assumed that Henry Paulson is likewise an intelligent man and that if he paid any more than Mr. Buffett--if he paid $1 for something for which Mr. Buffett would have paid 50 cents--that the difference is a gift from the taxpayers of the United States to the shareholders of Goldman Sachs."
The implications are staggering. Leo Gerard told Paulson: "If the result of our analysis is applied to the deals that you made at the other eight institutions--which on average most would view as being less well positioned than Goldman and therefore requiring an even greater rate of return--you paid a$125 billion for securities for which a disinterested party would have paid $62.5 billion. That means you gifted the other $62.5 billion to the shareholders of these nine institutions."
If the same rule of thumb is applied to Paulson's grand $700 billion bailout fund, Gerard said this will constitute a gift of $350 billion from the American taxpayers "to reward the institutions that have driven our nation and it now appears the whole world into its most serious economic crisis in 75 years."
Is anyone angry? Will anyone look into these very serious accusations? Congress is off campaigning. The financiers at Treasury probably assume any public outrage will be lost in the election returns. I hope they are mistaken.
Swindle ist wohl reichlich untertrieben :bad....und wieder einmal wird man umsonst auf eine angemessene Reaktion warten :mad
Ben Bernanke, Please Send Me Some Green!
Dalai Lama hints at significant change of strategy for Tibet vs China
A special strategy meeting for Tibetan exiles will occur in mid-November.
This little-reported story that may have important significance in a few weeks.
The Dalai Lama is changing his position from one of preaching conciliation, compromise and tolerance with China into something that's a lot more confrontational.
The Tibetan spiritual leader shocked observers last weekend for his unusually blunt statement.
On Saturday, the Dalai Lama told a public function in his exile location, Dharmsala, India, that he has "been sincerely pursuing the middle way approach in dealing with China for a long time now but there hasn't been any positive response from the Chinese side." He added: "As far as I'm concerned I have given up."
In an interview on Thursday with the BBC, he made the following bitter statement:
Dalai Lama describes his faith in China's government. (Source: BBC)
"My faith in China's government has become tiny, tiny, tiny. Our main aim has been to improve conditions inside Tibet. That has not happened. Now the suppression is much, much increased - very, very tight control, something like military occupation - like that. Sometimes I feel like the Tibetan people are passing through a death sentence - something like that."
He's called an extraordinary mid-November meeting of Tibetan exile leaders to discuss future strategy. One possible outcome, though far from certain, would be a call for full Tibetan independence.
Ironically, this call for independence would do little to stir up the Tibetans, since the Tibetans are in a generational Unraveling era. The most you could expect from the Tibetans would be a few demonstrations, and perhaps some scattered violence.
But the Chinese have the most nationalistic, paranoid government on earth. It's quite possible that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will take this change of strategy as a major threat, and will overreact.
The Chinese DID overreact last March, with an extremely violent crackdown on demonstrating Tibetan monks. Worldwide attitudes towards the Chinese became increasing angry and xenophobic until May, when a massive earthquake in Sichuan province created a period of good will that lasted through the Olympics game in August.
It became clear in March that the fault line between Han Chinese and Tibetans is very deep and full of hatred. This hatred exploded in March, and the Dalai Lama's announced intention to change strategy raises the possibility that it will explode again. (31-Oct-2008) Permanent Link
:rolleyes .....und die Welt wird wieder wegschaun :(
Quote of the Day
“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.” Confucius
October 20, 2008
By Ian Gordon
Investment Strategies based on
Understanding the "Kondratieff Cycle"
An investment advisor and Vice President of Bolder Investment Partners Inc, Ian Gordon is a globally renowned Economic Forecaster and author of 'The Long Wave Analyst' - a newsletter that currently reaches over 5,000 readers worldwide.
'The Long Wave Analyst' is based on Ian's unique interpretation of the Kondratieff long wave cycle, and in it discusses the ramifications on the current global economic state, and how best to financially benefit from it.
A student of economic and investment history, Ian's unique analysis of the cycle has garnered great praise from many notable sources, including Robert Prechter in his book 'Conquer the Crash'
As an investment advisor and Vice President of Bolder Investment Partners Inc, Ian provides investment advice to high net worth clients, international and domestic fund managers, and numerous gold companies.
Ian travels internationally speaking about the long wave theory and discusses his predictions in relation to the stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities and gold markets
:schwitz:gruebel :rolleyes :supi
Greenspan Slept as Off-Books Debt Escaped Scrutiny (Update1)
By Alan Katz and Ian Katz
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- As George Miller welcomed 60 bankers to the chandeliered Charlotte City Club one evening in September, the focus was on more than the recent bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. From their 31st-floor perch, members of the American Securitization Forum, which Miller leads, fretted about the future of their $10.7 trillion industry.
The bankers were warned that a Financial Accounting Standards Board plan would force trillions of dollars back onto balance sheets, requiring cash reserves to soar. Their business of pooling and reselling assets had dropped 47 percent in the first six months of the year, and the industry couldn't afford another setback.
The next day, Miller, 39, the forum's executive director, took that message from North Carolina to a Senate hearing in Washington examining the buildup of off-balance-sheet assets. ``There are great risks to the financial markets and to the economy of moving forward quickly with bad rules,'' he said of FASB's proposal.......
That same year Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt opposed an attempt by Brooksley Born, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to study regulating over-the-counter derivatives. In 2000, Congress passed a law keeping them unregulated.
Levitt said he went along with concerns by Greenspan and Rubin that Born's action might throw derivatives contracts into ``legal uncertainty.'' He said he now regrets that he didn't press a presidential advisory group ``to take a closer look'' at the issue. Rubin said in an interview that ``you could have had chaos'' :rolleyes if Born's plan found existing derivatives contracts invalid because they weren't traded on an exchange. Both Born and Greenspan declined to comment......
.....Greenspan Blasted At hearings in Congress last week, financial experts and industry groups urged House and Senate committees to consider changes, including a regulator with overall authority to protect the system from risk. T. Timothy Ryan, SIFMA president, and Steve Bartlett, president of the Financial Services Roundtable, both supported the idea of a clearinghouse for credit-default swaps at an Oct. 21 House hearing. The clearinghouse would help ensure payment if counterparties failed to manage risk.
Two days later, Greenspan was blasted at another House hearing for failing to curb the growth of subprime-mortgage loans. He came out in favor of new rules requiring issuers of securitized assets to ``retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue.''
Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in a speech in Boston on Oct. 27 that he is also in favor of rules ``to contain the excesses of this great innovation of securitization.''
Others took a more global view.
``We exported our toxic mortgages abroad,'' Joseph Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University and a Nobel Prize winner, said at the Oct. 21 House hearing. ``Had we not, the problems here at home would have been even worse.''
(Wall Street's Toxic Exports: Part 4 of 4.)
To contact the reporters on this story: Ian Katz in Washington at email@example.com; Alan Katz in Paris at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Last Updated: October 30, 2008 14:57 EDT
full story. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aYJZOB_gZi0I
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