Mon 10 Nov 2008
American Express Now A Bank Holding Company
Posted by alyx under all ur bankz
In keeping with the tradition of leopards changing their spots, venerable credit card issuer American Express, which up until like 5 minutes ago used to be an industrial loan company, the same charter held by GMAC and General Electric, has now decided that a glorified credit card issuer should be a bank holding company:
The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced its approval of the applications and notices under sections 3 and 4 of the Bank Holding Company Act by American Express Company and American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc., both of New York, New York, to become bank holding companies on conversion of American Express Centurion Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah, to a bank, and to retain certain nonbanking subsidiaries, including American Express Bank, FSB, Salt Lake City, Utah.It’s the cool thing to do these days.
1) Become a bank holding company
2, of course, is not actually “???” but is instead “drop off your crap assets at the TARP” and “pretend you are doing it so you can collect deposits, even though no one has any money to deposit these days.” AmEx is also now entitled to fast ca$h from the Fed and possibly even FDIC guarantees on its debt. Yay!
....alle werden Banken und hängen an den Zizen der FED ähmmmm ....an den Zizen des Steuerzahlers :rolleyes
Mon 10 Nov 2008
Goldman: “Why Bother Covering Citi Or JP Morgan?”
Posted by alyx under all ur bankz , goldman sachs
He can’t “C”! Get it?
Analysts, can-alysts… when bigshot GS has to start cutting people who follow the huge names, institutional research is officially going the way of the dodo, and I bet George Gutowski is blowing a party horn somewhere right about now (incidentally, this is one of my favorite critiques of IR - readable no matter your level of investor savvy and the used copies are going for a whopping $0.01). Goldman Sachs cut loose six better known analysts from its firm, axing coverage of several big firms and suspending coverage of others:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the Wall Street bank that cut 3,200 jobs last week, identified six equity analysts fired by the firm, including William Tanona, who covered companies such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Deane Dray, who followed General Electric Co.So, no point in reassigning C or JPM to somebody before canning the folks who followed them? Nothing much interesting going on in the banking sector these days?
...GS-Verantwortungs-Abgang durch die Hintertüre :rolleyes
Topaz (usagold.com 11November2008; 0:17):verbeug
Edgy little article in mainstream media here in Oz …hmmm!
The end of credit as we know it
By Sarah Mills, ninemsn Money
The October global financial crisis struck fear and loathing into western consumer hearts around the world.
Cheap, easy debt, consumed by the swollen ranks of addicted baby boomers, has fired Western growth for the past three decades. But, with the world's banks wobbling, the debt-tap was about to be cut off. The fear was palpable.
Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global sharemarkets and the world's governments were forced to bail out floundering financial institutions. The markets have since regained some degree of normality but the world is far from stable.
The days of securitisation, which fired the mortgage boom, are gone and banks are looking elsewhere for capital to lend to consumers. The question hanging in the minds of many is: is this the end of credit?
The short answer is no. Financial Armageddon has been postponed. For how long is another story.
Government bail-outs and guarantees for deposits and interbank borrowing have ensured the debt life-support system remains hooked up. The banks meanwhile are using those guarantees to pump as much debt as possible into the economy to keep consumption afloat and stave off recession.
The bail-outs and rate cuts mean people are essentially borrowing from themselves — this state of affairs is not sustainable. It also substantially increases the cost of debt to the consumer. It means you are using your own tax money to repay your debts. Suddenly your mortgages, credit cards, plasma TVs and cheap furniture become very expensive.
Interestingly, the US bail-out legislation remains into perpetuity and is not renewable by any court. This turn of events has interesting repercussions.
The power to bail out the financial system at will basically removes the risk-reward equation from debt markets. By moving from a market system to a centralised system, an unsustainable situation can be maintained for longer than the markets would normally allow. It promotes profligate, unsustainable behaviour by both rich and poor because it removes consequences from the borrowing equation. It also makes it more difficult to predict the timing of market trends.
So while it is not the end of credit, it is the end of credit as we know it.
The world has entered new and dangerous territory
The only question now is how long can the world's governments hold up economies built on smoke and mirrors.
The chronic imbalances caused by a debt-driven economy will not go away. While leverage exacerbates rises, it also exacerbates falls. Examples of this include:
There are four problems with paying down debt:
The safest place to be in such times is in charge of the military. Which takes me to another interesting snippet. US congressmen Brad Sherman and Michael Burgess have stated that, in private conversations, members of Congress were told there was a risk of martial law being imposed within one week if Congress refused to pass the bail-out Bill. On October 1, almost 4000 US army soldiers were deployed onto the streets. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's threat of a rolling national security crisis now becomes clearer.
Apparently, the fine print in the US bail-out Bill (which cannot be repealed by any court) gave the US President access to $100 billion in discretionary (which amounts to his own army). Scary stuff — even scarier than a mortgage default.
...irgendwann knallt's wirklich
Hell, Meet Handbasket
By Doug Hornig, Editor, Casey Research – BIG GOLD
08 Nov 2008 at 12:42 AM GMT-05:00
Currently, we find ourselves in a mess that many are calling the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. If not worse. A mile-high mountain of paper profits has been set ablaze and reduced to ashes, choking investors who put their faith in houses, stocks, or commodities, or… or… just about anything else you can name............
.........This is a once-in-a-lifetime event, a train to nowhere, and it will cause no end of suffering.
Since we can’t stop it, we’ll do the next best thing, which is to protect ourselves. That means assessing the likely fallout from the government’s meddling in the market, and developing guidelines for the best way to ride out the hurricane.
Some consequences are already baked in the cake. Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad has been studying the unfolding crisis for years. Based on his work, this is what we foresee:
full story: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=47754
...lohnt sich den ganzen Artikel zu lesen :cool
bei DU gesehen :verbeug
Revised AIG Terms Begin Treasury Transfusions to 'Zombie' Firms
By Craig Torres
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The revised bailout of American International Group Inc. marks a new phase in the government's effort to shore up financial markets: It's the first time cash from the rescue fund Congress created last month has been committed to a failing company.
The Federal Reserve, which saved the insurer from collapse two months ago with an $85 billion loan, yesterday reduced that loan and offered lower rates, while the Treasury chipped in $40 billion from its bank-rescue fund to buy preferred shares. The new terms represent a departure for Secretary Henry Paulson, who until now has said he only wants to invest Treasury funds in ``healthy'' firms. (Wahrheit - Integrität ---> Fremdwörter:bad)
Taxpayers are ``keeping the zombie alive,'' said Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at hedge fund Cumberland Advisors and former director of research at the Atlanta Fed. ``We keep getting deeper and deeper into these holes.''
The shift is likely to vastly expand political demands for saving dying companies in the name of financial or economic stability. The administration of President-elect Barack Obama may soon have to consider credit or capital injections for other insurers, automakers, even retailers as the U.S. slides deeper into what could be the worst recession in a quarter-century.
``Are you going to do General Motors and Ford, and, if you do those, are going to go on and do retailers?'' said William Isaac, former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and now chairman of the Secura Group LLC. `` Where does it stop? That is a very difficult decision we are going to face as a country.''...
full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=akqkcj7pcOGM
...noch mehr dazu:
November 10th, 2008
Paulson’s folly: Throwing good money after bad at AIG
Post a comment (9)
By: Reuters Staff
– Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. The opinions expressed are his own. –
By Peter Morici
The Treasury is injecting another $27 billion into AIG and raising the taxpayers’ investment to $150 billion. Secretary :bad Paulson appears more intent on helping his pals on Wall Street than protecting taxpayer interests........
11 November 2008
Thinking the Unthinkable: Are the Markets Warning of a US Debt Default?
As we have previously stated, right now the US is on the path to a devaluation and a selective default on its debt and currency. No one can say 'how and when' with certainty. But surely it seems probable that there is a stop and a stumble in the growth of this mother of credit bubbles somewhere ahead.
Perhaps it may be more credible if one reads a similar speculation in the financial magazine Barron's.
Some have suggested that devaluation no longer has meaning, preferring depreciation. Why? Because what would one devalue the dollar against, as it is tied to no external standard? The Dollar is its own standard as the reserve currency of the word.
A bit of a technical nuance perhaps, a holdover from when money was related to independent stores of value. But we think the dollar can be devalued against the expectation of the marketplace that the growth of the money supply will keep pace with the net productive output of the US, and real relative purchasing power, and represent a store of value with some small variance for inflation.
It is always a mistake to assume that there are no external standards, no dissenting views, that things are merely what we say they are and should be, for everyone.
The standard is the 'full faith and credit of the United States.' And if that confidence is broken, the reversion to fundamental 'external' values may be impressive.
Unthinkable? Every currency that has ever been has eventually been destroyed and undergone a transformation. Even the US dollar has undergone evoluations and incarnations.
But few things are inevitable. The world may choose to create a one world currency, under the control of the Fed and the Central Banks, which is a prelude to One World Government. This would be one way to extend the existence of a fiat regime. Kill off all the alternatives, by force. A regime of the will to last a thousand years.
But that is an exogenous development. For now, within a degree of probability, the US is on the road to a significant failure of its currency and debt, most likely through a nasty bout of inflation, selective bankruptcies, and ultimately the reissue of a new currency.
Searching for relative safe havens of value for wealth, as it had been in the 1970's, may be the premiere investment theme for the rest of this decade, and some part of the next.
Barron'sUP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY
Uncle Sam's Credit Line Running Out?
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
NOVEMBER 11, 2008
The yield curve and credit default swaps tell the same story: the U.S. can't borrow trillions without paying a price.
WHAT ONCE WAS UNTHINKABLE has come to pass this year: massive bailouts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, with the extension of billions of the taxpayers' and the central bank's credit in so many new and untested schemes that you can't tell your acronyms or abbreviations without a scorecard.
Even more unbelievable is that some of the recipients of staggering sums are coming back for a second round. Or that the queue of petitioners grows by the day.
But what happens if the requests begin to strain the credit line of the world's most creditworthy borrower, the U.S. government itself? Unthinkable?
American International Group which originally had to borrow what was a stunning $85 billion from the Fed to keep it from cratering in September, upped the total Sunday to $150 billion.
Monday, Fannie Mae reported a $29 billion third-quarter loss, far in excess of forecasts, raising the specter that the mortgage giant may need more money after the Treasury pledged to inject $100 billion in preferred stock financing in September.
Meanwhile, American Express received Fed approval to convert to a bank holding company, joining the likes of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, that have a direct pipeline to borrow from the Fed or the Treasury's TARP, the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Fund.
And, of course, Detroit is looking for a credit line from Washington. General Motors (GM) Friday warned it could run out of cash next year without a government loan. GM plunged another 23% Monday, to 3.36, as several analysts helpfully recommended selling shares of the beleaguered automaker that already had lost more than 85% of their value.
Visiting the White House Monday, President-elect Obama pressed President Bush to support emergency aid for GM and other automakers. The prospect for federal aid for GM ironically weighed on its shares as one bearish analyst said the price of the bailout could be a wipeout of common holders.
Be that as it may, it's all adding up. If the late Sen. Everett Dirkson were around today, he might comment that a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money.
Trillions are no hyperbole. The Treasury is set to borrow $550 billion in the current quarter alone and $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. "Near-term pressures on Treasury finances are much more intense than we had thought," Goldman Sachs economists commented when the government announced its borrowing projections last week.
It may finally be catching up with Uncle Sam. That's what the yield curve may be whispering. But some economists are too deaf, or dumb, to get it.
The yield curve simply is the graph of Treasury yields of increasing maturities, starting from one-month bills to 30-year bonds. The slope of the line typically is ascending -- positive in math terms -- because investors would want more to tie up their money for longer periods, all else being equal. Which it never is.
If they expect yields to rise in the future, they'll want a bigger premium to commit to longer maturities. Otherwise, they'd rather stay short and wait for more generous yields later on. Conversely, if they think rates will fall, investors will want to lock in today's yields for a longer period.
The Treasury yield curve -- from two to 10 years, which is how the bond market tracks it -- has rarely been steeper. The spread is up to 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points, a level matched only in the past quarter century in 2002 and 1992, at the trough of economic cycles.
Based on a simplistic reading of that history and the Cliff Notes version of theory, one economist whose main area of expertise is to get quoted by reporters even less knowledgeable than he, asserts such a steep yield curve typically reflects investors' anticipation of economic recovery. (LOL, nicely phrased - Jesse)
Never mind that the yield curve has steepened as the economy has worsened and prospects for recovery have diminished. Like the Bourbons, the French royal family up to the Revolution, he learns nothing and forgets nothing.
As with so much other things, something else is happening this year.
The steepening of the Treasury yield curve has been accompanied by an increase in the cost of insuring against default by the U.S. Treasury. It may come as a shock, but there are credit default swaps on the U.S. government and they have become more expensive -- in tandem with an increase in the spread between two- and 10-year notes.
This link has been brought to light by Tim Backshall, the chief analyst of Credit Derivatives Research. The attraction of investors to the short end of the Treasury market is "juxtaposed with the massive oversupply and inflationary expectations of the longer end," he writes.
Backshall is not alone in this dire assessment. Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer for fixed income at Guggenheim Partners, a Los
Angeles money manager, estimates that total Treasury borrowing for fiscal 2009 will total $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion. That was based on $700 billion for TARP, a $500 billion-$750 billion "cyclical deficit," an additional $500 billion stimulus program and some uncertain amount for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Minerd doubts that private savings in the U.S. and foreign purchases of Treasury debt will be sufficient to meet those government cash. That leaves the Fed to take up the slack; that is, monetization of the debt.
However it comes about, Backshall's charts of the yield curve and the spread on U.S. Treasury CDS paint a dramatic picture. Both the yield spread and the cost of insuring debt moved up sharply together starting in September.
Let's recall what happened that month: the Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac bailouts, the AIG bailout and the Lehman Brothers failure. The two lines continued their parallel ascent with the announcement and ultimate passage of the TARP last month. And evidence mounted of an accelerating slide in growth.
Cutting through the technical jargon, the yield curve and the credit-default swaps market both indicate the markets are exacting a greater cost to lend to Uncle Sam. And it's not because of anticipated recovery, which would reduce, not increase, the cost of insuring Treasury debt against default.
All of which suggests America's credit line has its limits.
At the beginning of the Clinton Administration in the early 1990s, adviser James Carville was stunned at the power the bond market had over the government. If he came back, Carville said he would want to come back as the bond market so he could scare everybody.
President-elect Obama may come to think Clinton had it easy by comparison.
Posted by Jesse at 10:46 AM :verbeug
11.11. sonst versinken wir noch total im Trübsal :rolleyes:o;):D
Sendung vom 11.11.2008
Daten-Gier: Wie Google Schweizer ausspioniert
Google betreibt mittlerweile rund 70 Internet-Dienste. Was viele nicht wissen: Google ist der eifrigste Datensammler der Welt. «Kassensturz» deckt auf: Viele Schweizer Websites liefern Daten an Google, ohne es zu deklarieren. Ein Experte sagt, wie Internet-User ihre Privatsphäre schützen können.
Millionen von Menschen nutzen Google. Pro Stunde erreichen den Internetkonzern zig Millionen Suchabfragen. Google sagt den Nutzern, auf welchen Internetseiten sie die Information finden, die sie suchen. Google speichert neben den Suchanfragen auch die Internetadresse, die sogenannte IP-Nummer :mad Mit den gespeicherten Daten verdient der Konzern Milliarden. Denn Google kennt die individuellen Interessen, Lebensumstände und intimsten Probleme und kann für jeden Internetnutzer gezielt Werbung schalten. Alle Daten speichert Google neun Monate lang.
Rund 70 Google-Dienste
Google sei weltweit der grösste private Datensammler, sagt ETH-Informatikingenieur Thomas Heinis, Spezialist für Datensammlungen im Netz. Denn nicht nur die Suchmaschine liefere Daten, sondern auch die rund 70, oft personalisierten Dienste, die Google mittlerweile anbietet. Thomas Heinis: «Google hat das Potential, die Daten zusammenzuführen und die anonymen Benutzerprofile mit Personen in Verbindung zu bringen».
Wer sich bei Google anmeldet, der kann sein Leben mit Google organisieren. Google bietet Speicherplatz für private Texte, Fotos und andere Dokumente – alles ist gratis. Dafür bekommt Google seine Daten. Der Google-Kalender verwaltet die persönlichen Termine, Google-Mail die Kommunikation mit Freunden und Geschäftspartnern. Google verdient damit: Wer etwa über Urlaubspläne schreibt, der findet gleich neben dem Mail die passende Werbung.
Datenstrom nach Übersee
Und das funktioniert so: Google scannt jedes Mail, das man schreibt oder empfängt, nach Schlüsselbegriffen. Ausschließlich um gezielte Werbung zu platzieren, betont das Unternehmen. Würde Google die Daten ihrer verschiedenen Dienste verknüpfen, wären auf den Servern von Google detaillierte Personenprofile von Millionen von Google-Benutzern. Mit exakten Informationen zu Person, politischer Einstellung, sexuellen Präferenzen, Krankheiten und so weiter. Bisher ist kein Fall bekannt, dass Google dies tatsächlich gemacht hätte.
Trotzdem ist der eidgenössische Datenschützer Hanspeter Thür beunruhigt, denn alle Daten wandern direkt in die USA – aus Datenschutzsicht eine Zeitbome :mad Bekanntlich habe Amerika keinen vergleichbaren Datenschutz wie beispielsweise Europa oder die Schweiz. Die US-Regierung versuche immer wieder, im Rahmen der Terrorismusbekämpfung auf die Daten Zugriff zu nehmen. Hanspeter Thür: «Die Tatsache, dass diese Datenbestände in den USA lagern, ist aus meiner Sicht ein beträchtliches Risiko.»
Das musste auch Swift, das Kommunikationsnetzwerk der Banken, erfahren. Swift übermittelt die Überweisungsdaten zwischen rund 8000 Banken aus über 200 Staaten. Alle Daten werden automatisch zweifach gespeichert – einmal in Europa und einmal in Amerika :dumm Thomas Ramadan, Chef von Swift Schweiz bestätigt, dass die zusätzliche Speicherung der Daten in den USA problematisch ist. Im Rahmen der Terrorbekämpfung :rolleyes zwang die USA Swift, Kundendaten herauszugeben :mad Das war nur möglich, weil alle Daten auf Servern in den USA gespeichert werden.
Google beruhigt: Mit den USA bestünde ein Abkommen. Die Daten in den USA seien gleich sicher wie in Europa :dumm Zur Problematik der Verknüpfung von Daten verschiedener Dienste schreibt Google: «Es gibt eindeutige Trennungen zwischen den einzelnen Diensten. Sozusagen chinesische Mauern. Die sicherlich wichtigste steht zwischen den Suchanfragen und den personalisierten Diensten. Suchanfragen können so nicht einer Person zugeordnet werden.»
Fakt ist: Google erklärtes Ziel ist es, immer mehr Daten der Nutzer noch exakter zu verwerten. Mit dem Wissen über seine Nutzer, will Google künftig die persönlichsten Fragen beantworten können. Und zwar genauer als Eltern, Freunde oder Fachleute. Google soll immer die einzig richtige Antwort kennen, beschreibt Google-Chef Eric Schmidt seine Vision in einem YouTube-Video.
Doch auch Internetnutzer, die komplett auf die Dienste von Google verzichten, müssen damit rechnen, von Google erfasst und gespeichert zu werden. Der Grund: Google Analytics. Exklusiv für «Kassensturz» sucht Thomas Heinis im Netz nach Websites, die Google Analytics verwenden. Dieses Programm stellt Google Websitebetreibern gratis zur Verfügung. Mit Google Analytics erfahren die Firmen, wie ihre Seite genutzt wird. Das Programm registriert, wie sich die Besucher einer Website bewegen, was sie interessiert, was sie anklicken. Der Preis für diesen Gratis-Service: Die Daten werden automatisch an Google weitergeleitet.
Ein Drittel aller Websites, die Thomas Heinis analysiert hat, benutzen Google Analytics. Die Auswertung zeigt, dass Firmen wie die Migros oder Allianz Suisse Google Analytics verwenden. Aber auch Websites mit sensiblerem Inhalt wie die Suchtprävention im Kanton Zürich oder die Aidshilfe Schweiz. Die Parteien FDP und SP nutzen Google Analytics ebenso wie Sozialversicherungen und sogar Polizeikorps :rolleyes Sie alle geben Daten ihrer Nutzer an Google weiter – ohne dies auf der Website zu deklarieren. Für Informatiker Heinis ist das problematisch: «Der Benutzer ist sich beim Aufruf der Seite nicht bewusst, dass die Daten auch zu Google gelangen.» :mad
Die Nutzer müssen von den Websitebetreibern über die Weitergabe der Daten an Google informiert werden. So verlangt es das Gesetz, sagt Datenschützer Hanspeter Thür: «Wer mit Google Analytics arbeitet, muss seine Websitebesucher darüber informieren, dass Die Daten erstens ausgewertet und zweitens in die USA übermittelt werden.»
Google, das sympathische Unternehmen mit dem Ziel, optimale Suchergebnisse im Internet zu ermöglichen, ist zum Datenschutzproblem für 500 Millionen Google-Nutzer geworden :rolleyes
.....wird wohl in allen Ländern ähnlich ablaufen :grrrr
12. November 2008, 10:11, NZZ Online
Bundesrat Samuel Schmid tritt zurück
Bundesrat und VBS-Vorsteher Samuel Schmid hat an einer überraschend einberufenen Medienkonferenz im Bundeshaus am Mittwoch offiziell seine Demission auf Ende Jahr angekündigt. Schmid gab vor den Medien eine kurze Erklärung ab. Am Nachmittag will er vor den Medien Fragen beantworten.
(ap/bbu.) Er gebe das Amt auf Ende Jahr ab, erklärte der Verteidigungsminister vor den Medien in Bern. Er demissioniere seiner Gesundheit, seiner Familie, seinem Land und der Armee zuliebe, sagte Schmid. Die Rücktrittserklärung kommt insofern überraschend, als er am Vortag nach der Zustimmung der Sicherheitspolitischen Kommission des Nationalrats zum Rüstungsprogramm noch erklärt hatte, die Frage eines Rücktritts stelle sich aktuell nicht. Schmid war im vergangenen Sommer im Zuge der Affäre um Armeechef Roland Nef stark unter Druck geraten und mit Rücktrittsforderungen konfrontiert worden. In dieser Sache soll bis Ende November ein Zwischenbericht vorliegen.
(Schweiz intern ;))
:gruebel Google entwickelt sich wohl immer mehr zum Big Brother :confused:rolleyes
GOOGLE IN SICK SURVEILLANCE
SICK SURVEILLANCE: GOOGLE REPORTS FLU SEARCHES, LOCATIONS TO FEDS
Tue Nov 11 2008 15:34:50 ET
GOOGLE will launch a new tool that will help federal officials "track sickness".
"Flu Trends" uses search terms that people put into the web giant to figure out where influenza is heating up, and will notify the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in real time!
GOOGLE, continuing to work closely with government, claims it would keep individual user data confidential: "GOOGLE FLU TRENDS can never be used to identify individual users because we rely on anonymized, aggregated counts of how often certain search queries occur each week."
Engineers will capture keywords and phrases related to the flu, including thermometer, flu symptoms, muscle aches, chest congestion and others.
Dr. Lyn Finelli, chief of influenza surveillance at CDC: "One thing we found last year when we validated this model is it tended to predict surveillance data. The data are really, really timely. They were able to tell us on a day-to-day basis the relative direction of flu activity for a given area. They were about a week ahead of us. They could be used... as early warning signal for flu activity."
Thomas Malone, professor at M.I.T.: "I think we are just scratching the surface of what's possible with collective intelligence."
Eric Schmidt, GOOGLE's chief executive vows: "From a technological perspective, it is the beginning."
Moin@all, wer hat eine (noch) bessere Weltuntergangsmeldung??
Kreditkrise in Panikphase
Mittwoch, 12. November 2008
Morgan Stanley: Kreditkrise geht in gefährliche Panikphase über. Deflation in 2009 wahrscheinlich.
Noch vor gut einer Woche sahen die Experten von Morgan Stanley ein „Full House“ Kaufsignal. Doch diese Meinung haben die Analysten per heute wohl geändert.
Morgan Stanley spricht davon, dass die Kreditkrise in eine gefährliche "Panikphase" übergegangen sei. Die Situation an den Kreditmärkten verschlechtere sich zusehends. Die Konsequenzen seien deshalb schwer einschätzbar. Dies würde allerdings nichts Gutes für die Zukunft bedeuten.
Den Zentralbanken gelinge es offenbar nicht, die Kreditvergabe zwischen den Banken wieder in dem gewünschten Maße zu aktivieren. Und solange dies nicht funktioniere, dürfte die Situation mehr als schwierig bleiben.
Steven Roach äusserte sich auf CNBC ebenfalls kritisch zur Zukunft. Er sagte, die Finanzkrise sei die schlimmste Krise der Welt. Die Zentralbanken hatten keine andere Wahl als zu handeln, wie sie handeln. Es scheint zwar eine gewisse Erleichterung bei den Credit Spreads zu geben. Aber die Kredite laufen immer noch nicht.
In 2009 werden wir in eine tiefe Rezession gehen. Falls die Kreditvergabe wieder läuft, könnte es nicht so schlimm werden.
Auf die Frage, ob beispielsweise Deutschland Konsumenten aktivieren könne sagte Roach: "Deutschland? Sie machen wohl einen Witz." Besonders Deutschland und die exportorientierten Länder dürften nächstes Jahr eine extrem schwierig Phase vor sich haben. Generell sehe er derzeit kaum eine Möglichkeit, wie weltweit der Konsum wieder in Gang kommen kann.
@Germanasty - ich halte mal dagegen :cool sonst hält man es ja nicht mehr aus ;)
Men at work: Land down under!!!!
Die Einwanderungswelle von Deutschland Richtung Schweiz rollt. Jeden Monat kommen rund 2000 Leute aus dem grossen Nachbarland im Norden auf den Schweizer Arbeitsmarkt. Mehr als die Hälfte von ihnen sind hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte. Diese deutsche Welle löst in der Schweiz nicht nur Begeisterung, sondern auch Ängste aus.
Wie erleben Sie als Deutsche den Alltag in der Schweiz? Wie wohl fühlen Sie sich an Ihrem Arbeitsplatz? Verstehen Sie Schweizerdeutsch? Welche Erfahrungen machen Sie ihn Ihrer Wahlheimat?
Und wie reagieren Sie als Schweizer oder Schweizerin auf die "deutsche Welle"? Befürchten Sie eine "Germanisierung" der Schweiz?
Schreiben Sie uns!
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Kunstler is pretty good this week
-> Posted by ipso_facto @ 19:36 pm on November 11, 2008
The current occupant of the White House, however, has sedulously prepared for his successor the biggest shit sandwich the world has ever seen, and there is naturally some concern that Mr. Obama might choke on it. The dilemma is essentially this: the consumer economy we all knew and loved has died. There will be pressure from nearly every quarter to keep it hooked up to the costly life support machines even though it is dead. A different economy is waiting to be born, but it is nothing like the one that has died. The economy-to-come is one of rigor and austerity. It is not the kind of thing that a nation of overfed clowns is used to. Do we even have a prayer of getting to it, or are we going to squander our dwindling resources on life support for something that is already dead?
A case in point: the car industry. The Big Three, all functionally bankrupt, are now lined up for bail-outs from the treasury’s bottomless checking account. Personally, I believe the age of Happy Motoring is over. Many Americans have already bought their last car — they just don’t know it yet. The current low-ish price of oil is a total fake-out, having to do much more with asset-dumping in the paper markets than the true resource supply-demand equation. Most of the world (the media for sure) has ignored preliminary leaks from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forthcoming report which forecasts global oil depletion to be 9.1 percent in 2009. This is a staggering figure, very likely to offset whatever slack we see in global demand from the worldwide economic crisis. In fact, the global oil markets are poised for the most severe dislocations ever seen, meaning it’s a toss-up what happens first in the USA: a major leg back up in oil prices, or shortages, hoarding, and rationing.
UpInArms (1000+ posts) Wed Nov-12-08 09:30 AM
Response to Original message 38. Billion-dollar hedge fund managers face hearing- FT http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSBNG168352200...
Nov 12 (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers who earned more than $1 billion last year, including George Soros and Philip Falcone, are being summoned to Capitol Hill on Thursday to testify under oath about potential risks their firms pose to the broader economy, the Financial Times said.
The hearing before the House oversight committee will be headed by Democrat Henry Waxman, the paper said.
Soros and Falcone will appear alongside John Paulson of Paulson & Co, James Simons of Renaissance Technologies Corp and Kenneth Griffin of Citadel Investment Group, the paper said.
The five hedge fund managers were chosen because they were the top earners, according to a rough calculation from Alpha magazine, the FT said, citing people familiar with the matter.
The fund managers could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters.
Hedge fund executives expect the hearing will focus on questions including whether hedge funds have become so large that they threaten the stability of the financial system, either because of the impact of their trading or because of the impact of the failure of even one big hedge fund, the FT said.
A subsidiary question in this regard is whether hedge fund compensation practices encourage reckless risk taking, according to the paper.
AP Paulson says troubled assets will not be purchased
AP – 31 mins ago WASHINGTON – Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday the $700 billion government rescue program will not be used to purchase troubled assets as originally planned. Full Story»
DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) Wed Nov-12-08 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #46 56. A reporter asks Paulson if he misled Congress Edited on Wed Nov-12-08 12:36 PM by DemReadingDU
10 minute video, the reporter asks his question about halfway thru
11/12/08 Paulson Q&A 2
Secretary Treasury Henry Paulson answers questions on his update to the government rescue plan.
add another video
Rick Santelli holds up 2 papers - Bait and Switch to describe Paulson's plan now.
6 minute video, Santelli is on after 1 minute
Rick Santelli :supi
Sowas ist nicht gerade sehr intelligent :schwitz
Iran Reportedly Test-Fires New Generation of Missiles
By VOA News
12 November 2008
Iran says it has test fired a new generation missile it says has a range that would put Israel and southern Europe in its sights.
Iranian state media quote Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar Wednesday as saying the new surface-to-surface Sejil missile is a two-stage rocket that uses combined solid fuel. Such a missile would be more accurate and easier to use than such liquid fuel rockets as Iran's Shahab-Three.
In the past, Western military experts have expressed caution that Iran overstates its weapons' capabilities.
Najjar said the Sejil has a range of 2,000 kilometers, but added that the weapon was only designed for defensive purposes.
Israel recently repeated that it would not rule out the possibility of a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities and urged other nations keep all options open.
Western nations are concerned Iran may be seeking nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.
Representatives of the six world powers that have been pressing Iran to suspend part of its nuclear program will meet in Paris Thursday. Officials from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China have followed a dual strategy of offering Iran incentives to stop enriching uranium, and imposing sanctions if it refuses.
Nailing our Thesis on Inflation and Deflation to the Door
Apparently some people who divide the world into Inflationistas and Deflationistas took exception to the blog from yesterday which showed most of the usual money measures and noted that we are not seeing any real contraction yet, merely a slowing in growth in some measures.
We should add that we prefer to address inflation and deflation from a money supply perspective, fully acknowledging that there is a dimension called 'aggregate demand.' There is a qualitative difference between a general deflation caused by slack demand versus one caused by a contracting money supply, and vice versa for a general inflation.
It was particularly amusing to see the Adjusted Monetary Base attacked as a standard of the Inflationistas. It was included in our set of charts only because some of those promoting the deflation argument pointed to it as a sign of hoarding, and therefore having a negating affect on the other money supply figures. So we took a look at it both short term and long term. It is in the bounds of normality.
It is the hallmark of a dogmatic or fundamentalist mindset when the same data is used to both attack and defend the same proposition from completely opposite directions.
In a purely fiat regime, a monetary inflation or deflation is a policy decision. That decision may involve restrictions and limitations on the creation of money, a set of artificial boundaries, but that is the extent of it. It is a matter of resourcefulness and will.
You can't make the banks lend. Like hell I couldn't. They would lend or dry up if you used the right policy tools, and they know it. Its all of a choice. Its intent. Lending involves risk, and if you can make decent returns without risk and the policy wonks give you that choice you will take it.
Without a binding external standard the size of the money supply is bound only by the acceptability of one's currency by those with real goods to exchange for it.
Now, just because deflation in the money supply has not yet shown up does not mean it won't. Fiat decisions cut in both directions. As we stated, we know how to cause a deflation with some reliability.
Additionally the alternatives are not between deflation and hyperinflation. The opposite of hyperinflation is a hyper-deflation in which there is an undersized money money, most of it being held by a small oligarchy and is used to control the broader public.
There is a wide middle ground between these two alternatives that is much more probable.
To complicate things there are a number of exogenous events that may significantly impact the dollar in particular. Right now the US dollar is the world's reserve currency and many international trade arrangements, notably oil, are predominantly priced in dollars. This creates an artificial support and demand for the dollar. If this were to disappear, the demand for dollars would likely subside, placing a downward pressure on the optimal money supply levels. But keep in mind that exogenous events can cut both ways, for and against.
By definition exogenous means not able to predict reliably from the model. But this is one of those things we are watching and closely. Will there be a new formal Bretton Woods II? Will the key world players continue accept the Fed as its global currency administrator? One can speculate the possible outcomes and their implications, but not with certainty until something happens.
Having said all that, it would be less than straightforward not to note that inflation is the natural and most probable outcome for a fiat currency unconstrained by an external standard.
What tosses so many is the example of Japan and their persistent deflation following a real estate bubble. The cause of this is a series of continuing policy decisions. Discouragement of consumption, encouragement of exports, a static and aging population that is racially homogeneous and discouraging of immigration. A strong emphasis on savings at low rates. It has been and will continue to be a policy decision determined by one of the most powerful and entrenched bureaucracies in the developed world with a strong commitment to industrial policy and central planning.
We do not wish to be a deflationist or an inflationist: we want to be on the right side of the market as it unfolds. There are people we respect on both sides of the discussion from a theoretical perspective including the more extreme hyperinflation. Roubini and John Williams are at polar extremes for example. What does one do? Look at the data, the arguments and sort them out objectively. Even the great Roubini puts his pants on one leg at a time.
So, we'll try our best to stay out of the religious debates, long on rhetoric and short on thought. Its hard to be an agnostic amongst fundamentalists but its where the scientific method leads us for now.
Posted by Jesse at 11:09 AM :verbeug
....ich weiss jetzt aber rotzdem nicht wie weiter :schwitzbesonders das ist nicht eben beruhigend :rolleyes
In a purely fiat regime, a monetary inflation or deflation is a policy decision. That decision may involve restrictions and limitations on the creation of money, a set of artificial boundaries, but that is the extent of it. It is a matter of resourcefulness and will.
Wed 12 Nov 2008
BREAKING NEWS: Troubled Asset Relief Program Will Not Purchase Troubled Assets
Posted by alyx under bailout , breaking news , hank paulson
Hammerin’ Hank has announced today he plans to revamp the Troubled Asset Relief Program to do pretty much everything but purchase troubled assets:
WASHINGTON - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday the $700 billion government rescue program will not be used to purchase troubled assets as originally planned.If the TARP isn’t going to actually purchase any troubled assets, we can’t call it a TARP any more. We have to call it something more accurate, like CRAP, “Consumer Relief Action Plan,” since it’s all consumer credit on his mind right now.
At least now we know why AmEx was in such a hurry to become a bank holding company. They may now want to consider asking for far more than the $3.5 billion they asked for this morning, since apparently Treasury exists now only to make sure your credit card still works. This image via Evan Sparks:
The best part of that whole 800-hour-long words-words-words speech Paulson made this morning, as Caroline B pointed out to me, is that
:dumm I will let that go without editorial.
12 November 2008
Congressman Asks Fed to Stop Ignoring Requests for Transparency
Boehner Demands Fed Identify Recipients of Loans
By Laura Litvan
Nov. 12 - House Republican leader John Boehner called for the Federal Reserve to disclose the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers and the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.
Boehner, in a prepared statement, also asked the Federal Reserve to comply with a Freedom of Information Act request seeking details about the loans.
The Fed ``should comply with this Freedom of Information Act request, and in the interest of full and fair disclosure, they must begin providing lawmakers and taxpayers all information about how they are using federal tax dollars,'' Boehner said.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn't require approval by Congress, there is little disclosure about how the programs are being implemented.
Bloomberg News requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.
A spokesman for the Federal Reserve didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
Boehner said he is increasingly concerned that the government's actions to add stability to financial markets is moving into areas that were not the stated intention when Congress approved $700 billion for a Treasury-administered program to bail out the financial sector that is being weighed down by the housing crisis.
``During the bipartisan negotiations between Congress and the administration, members of both parties made clear that Congress must have meaningful oversight over the use of taxpayer dollars,'' Boehner said. ``Transparency is even more important now, given that the program appears to have been implemented in some ways that were given little to no discussion as Congress was being urged to pass the rescue plan.''
Senator John Cornyn of Texas, a member of the Republican leadership, said the lack of disclosure ``should trouble taxpayers and policymakers alike.''
``There cannot be accountability in government and in our financial institutions without transparency,'' he said. ``Many of the financial problems we are facing today are the direct result of too much secrecy and too little accountability.''
Representative Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican who serves on both the Financial Services and Banking committees, said ``it's impossible to get to the bottom of where we are because we don't have transparency.''
Posted by Jesse at 11:06 PM :verbeug
Paulson & Co. werden wohl wissen warum transparency nicht so sehr auf ihrer Linie liegt :bad
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Bush and Obama Diss the G20 Financial Summit
The latest back-handed insult may be yet another variant of the Bush "we don't do multilateralism" syndrome. Unfortunately, as various pundits writing at the Financial Times have pointed out, the US's stranglehold on power is slipping. Even Obama in the campaign repeatedly said that a country cannot maintain military dominance if it is not a dominant economic player (the implication being the days of US as sole superpower are waning).
So to recap: Bush almost offhandedly agreed volunteered to host a summit to discuss the state of the financial world, a very out-of-character gesture. The most convincing explanation was that it was in response to a request by Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been very keen to strengthen international regulation, and has also been particularly helpful to the US president.
Since the time Bush picked (November 15) was after the elections, it was a bizarre gesture. Was this to pressure a new Administration into formulating views before they were ready (Bush had made it clear that the President elect would participate). China, separately, started saber-rattling to include the currency regime in the discussions, which was not part of the original game plan (and note further that the noises out of China on the dollar have been schizophrenic, which suggests, at best, that opposed camps are in a major power struggle, or at worst, China has badly conflicted objectives, as in they want to keep the yuan weak but are uncomfortable with buying more dollar assets, which is precisely what they have to do to pursue that strategy).
So the US's face saving expedient is to downgrade the summit. Obama is sending representatives who are clearly peripheral players; Paulson is now effectively saying that this session will not accomplish much:
This weekend provides an opportunity for nations to take an important step, but only one step, on the necessary path to reform.That sounds like the MOST they get to do is agree on the agenda for future meetings. Only one step, children!
This verges on an insult to the other participants, and were it not for the fact that Bush called the meeting and Paulson will be in attendance, if I were in their shoes, I'd lower the seniority of my delegate pronto.
The US is also seeking to externalize responsibility for the financial mess: the problem. of course, is those Chinese, keeping their currency too cheap and running those huge trade surpluses.
Ahem, it takes two to tango. Those massive surpluses have been a feature of the landscape for quite some time. They were convenient. They kept inflation down and cheap imports and cheap finance allowed the US consumer to live above his means, masking the impact of stagnant worker wages.
We could easily have threatened protectionist measures (once China had built up some FX reserves so as to feel less at risk of a re-run of the Asian crisis). But no, the religion of free trade was not to be questioned, even if everyone was smarter about gaming the system than we were.
Mind you, global imbalances, aka, China (and Japan and Taiwan and the Gulf States) buy US assets (mainly Treasuries) to fund our chronic overconsumption IS a huge problem, and it would be vastly better if we try to find an orderly way out. But how can Paulson say with a straight face that the summit needs to address global imbalances when he just went to Congress the very same day to ask to get his hands on the rest of the TARP money ($350 billion remains) precisely to keep US citizens overspending? Yes, I know the man is a chronic liar, it is one of our favorite themes here. But the Chinese, unlike the US media, are quite willing to point out the, um, inconsistencies in our policies.......
full story: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008...-financial.html
.....also wird wohl wieder mal wird warme Luft geblasen :o
Energieagentur erwartet Ölpreis von 200 Dollar
Von Ulrich Friese, Gerald Braunberger und Arnd Hildebrand
13. November 2008 Die entspannte Lage am internationalen Markt für Rohölpreise täuscht: „Die Phase des billigen Öls ist endgültig vorbei“, heißt es im aktuellen Bericht der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA). Sagte die renommierte Organisation der 30 größten Industrienationen bislang noch einen durchschnittlichen Preis für Rohöl von 108 Dollar je Barrel (159 Liter) bis zum Jahr 2030 voraus, sollen es nun bis dahin mindestens 200 Dollar je Barrel sein.
Die deutliche Korrektur der IEA-Prognose begründete Chefökonom Fatih Birol mit dem steigenden Energiehunger in Asien. So werde allein auf China und Indien in den nächsten 20 Jahren mehr als die Hälfte des weltweiten Wachstums bei Primärenergien entfallen. Um den stark steigenden Bedarf zu decken, seien auch weiterhin hohe Investitionen in die Infrastruktur wie Raffinerien oder Pipelines erforderlich.......
.......Die Nachfrage sinkt
Merrill Lynch bleibt bei der Auffassung, dass selbst ein Rückgang in den Bereich von 50 Dollar die langjährige Hausse nicht in Frage stellen würde, obgleich die mittelfristige Tendenz nun eindeutig nach unten weise. Diese Investmentbank weist darauf hin, dass die jüngsten amtlichen Zahlen über die Aufteilung der offenen Terminengagements in New York eine weitere Zunahme der Netto-Baisse-Positionen auf Seiten der großen spekulativen Marktteilnehmer (Hedge-Fonds) auswiesen. Diese Engagements hätten aber noch keine Extremwerte erreicht, die auf massive technische Auftriebskräfte schließen ließen......
ganzer Artikel: http://www.faz.net/s/Rub58BA8E456DE64F1890E34F4803239F4D/Doc~EEFDF88EAAD6740F69104F580B03BFE8B~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html
:gruebel irgendwann mal gab es doch was wie Angebot und Nachfrage :rolleyes also ich meine eines Produktes und nicht irgendwelcher Luftgebläse :o
so spart man Sprit :supi
How To Fix A Flat
Discussing who is really to blame for the situation at General Motors and other economic issues, with Thomas Friedman, Pulitzer Prize-Winning New York Times columnist and CNBC's Mark Haines.
...Steve with the "iCar" ;):hihi:supi why not :o
Thu 13 Nov 2008
Oh Yeah, He’s Still President:rolleyes
Posted by Jason under fail
So that whole global financial meltdown…thing…turns out, it isn’t actually the fault of a mostly-unregulated free market, according to noted economist George W. “President” Bush. No, he said that. He got on TV (well, okay, on C-SPAN) and said that, out loud, without snickering. In fact, much of his speech was a loud defense of American-style capitalism and free trade.
It’s funny that he said all that, because I could have sworn that a more-or-less complete lack of oversight and regulation is exactly what led financial institutions big and small to invent new ways to invent new money, and use that new money to invest in new new money, until it all came crashing down in a torrential downpour of Monopoly money, bankruptcies, FDIC takeovers, mergers, devaluations and crying grandmothers. But what do I know, I just mock the economy, he picks the guys that actually ruin it.
Congress probes hedge fund industry
Rep. Waxman examines 'virtually unregulated' hedge fund industry, in House committee testimony featuring industry player George Soros.
By Aaron Smith, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: November 13, 2008: 2:36 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A congressional committee scrutinized risks in the hedge fund industry on Thursday to determine whether further regulation is needed........
......Hedge fund assets plunged $100 billion in October, and $60 billion of that loss was from investor redemptions, according to the AP, which cited a report from data provider Eurekahedge. The AP also said hedge fund assets totaled $2.497 trillion at the end of the third quarter, citing data provider HedgeFund.net.
"Hedge funds were an integral part of the bubble." Soros said in his testimony. "But the bubble has now burst and hedge funds will be decimated. I would guess that the amount of money they manage will shrink by between 50 and 75%."
Soros, like the other hedge fund managers, agreed that increased regulation could be beneficial, but hewarned against "going overboard with regulation."
"Excessive deregulation has inflicted enormous losses on the general public and there is a real danger that the pendulum will swing too far the other way," said Soros. "That would be unfortunate because regulations are liable to be even more deficient than the market mechanism itself. That is because regulators are not only human, but also bureaucratic and susceptible to political influences."
Another witness, professor Andrew Lo, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Laboratory for Financial Engineering, suggested that regulators foster increased transparency within the financial industry and create a special public relations team to convey financial information to the general population.......
The Hedge Fund Disconnect
Nov 13th 2008 1:31PM
As I watch and read about the Hedge Fund testimony currently going on, its obvious that the right question has not been asked.
1. Those who give money to hedge funds rarely if ever have a 1 year investment term. In fact, the contracts for investment do everything possible to lock up your money for as long as possible.
Hedge Fund Managers pay themselves on an annual basis.
That is a huge disconnect and there in lies the rub. While it is true that the managers are paid on a performance basis (plus their 2pct of assets) and some even have clawback provisions, that is not enough. If a fund can get big enough, all they have to do is max out in a single year and the managers are set for life. They put hundreds of millions of dollars EACH in their pocket.
The investors on the other hand, can not max out returns in a single year. They are locked in. So there is a huge disconnect. Managers think short term, investors long term. Managers should be paid on their performance over a much longer period.
If you made the minimum period for managers 36 months, you would see wholesale changes in how investments are made by Hedge Funds.
So, back to the Testimony today. The questions I would ask ?
How long does the average investor stay in your funds ? Why arent you paid based on the same term rather than annually ?
5 Comments »
In The Know: Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?
1:56 min....if you are a patriot you throw money into the hole ;):o:D
"The Dollar Will Be Devalued By a Large Margin" - The Economic Times of India
"We must...have a genuine international currency as the international reserve currency... As a one-time measure, the dollar will be devalued by a large margin..."
Asia seems to be growing increasingly impatient with Ben Bernanke and His Merry Banksters.
The Economic Times
Be Bold Enough to Fight the System from Within
By Ramgopal Agarwala
14 Nov, 2008, 0126 hrs IST
The ongoing global financial tsunami that originated in the US poses a serious threat to the stability of world economy. Already the financial crisis has spread from the US to Europe, Japan and major emerging economies.
The loss of wealth due to decline in share prices alone is in scores of trillions of dollars. Similar trillions are being lost in wealth in real estate. The crisis has spread from the Wall Street to the Main Street with a serious recession in the US which is sure to have a contagion effect across the globe.
Even worse is the scenario of the future of the US dollar. The US is pumping more and more dollars into the world economy, seriously aggravating the burden of its external debt, which is already over $20 trillion. If the confidence in the US dollar is shaken and the dollar goes into a free fall, we may well have what has been called ‘mother of all monetary crises.’.........
.............The upcoming G20 summit in Washington DC could be a venue for considering these matters. Unfortunately, as indicated by the White House press release, the US seems to be putting the summit in the framework only of “reform of the regulatory and institutional regimes for the world’s financial sectors” and “strengthen(ing) the underpinnings of capitalism” by discussing how the summit leaders can “enhance their commitment to open competitive economies, as well as trade and investment liberalisation”!
Given the US veto power in Bretton Woods institutions, it can prevent the much-needed restructuring of global financial infrastructure. In that case, Asia should proceed with its own ‘Bretton Woods’ conference to set up a regional financial architecture that will pool its excess foreign exchange reserves in a regional sovereign wealth fund, create its own Asian currency unit as a parallel currency and use the seigniorage provided by the regional currency to fund the urgently needed physical and social infrastructure as well as measures to fight climate change.
This is an ambitious programme, but with a global economic calamity looming large, nothing less will do.
The author is with RIS, Delhi
:verbeug Posted by Jesse at 7:53 PM
Central Banks Shun the US Long Bond Auction - "Too Many Unknowns"
"Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 18 percent of the securities offered, down from 43 percent at the last sale" :rolleyes
U.S. Treasuries Fall After Investors Shun 30-Year Bond Auction
By Cordell Eddings and Sandra Hernandez
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell, led by 30-year bonds, after investors shunned the government's $10 billion sale of the securities amid concern that U.S. debt sales will grow...
``The 30-year is not a central bank product, and there's no real interest from pension funds'' at a yield below 4.5 percent, said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products in New York at MF Global Ltd., the world's largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options contracts. ``There's just no interest in it...''
``In the current market environment there are still too many unknowns,'' said William Larkin, a portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts, which manages about $500 million in assets. ``People are looking for the safety of the shorter-term securities....''
Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 18 percent of the securities offered, down from 43 percent at the last sale....
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 80 percent chance the Fed will lower its 1 percent target rate for overnight bank lending by a half-percentage point at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds were 58 percent a week ago.
The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, was 1.96 percentage points, compared with 4.57 percentage points a month ago.
The federal budget deficit in October, the first month of fiscal 2009, climbed to a record $237.2 billion, spurred by U.S. purchases of stakes in some of the country's largest banks. It exceeded the budget shortfall for President George W. Bush's first full year in office...
Posted by Jesse at 7:12 PM :verbeug
Fri 14 Nov 2008
Completely Devoid of Hyperbole
Posted by Jason under breaking news , fail
MSNBC reports as BREAKING NEWS that retail last month was off, by a lot. BREAKING NEWS, people. It is a complete surprise to everyone that consumers spent less last month, as the economy tanked, than before. Also:
The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell by 2.8 percent last month, surpassing the old mark of a 2.65 percent drop in November 2001 in the wake of the terrorist attacks that year.Did you see that? This crisis is now officially worse than 9/11.
Fri 14 Nov 2008
And Then There Were None
Posted by Jason under fail
Ah, Citigroup, once the very image of rock-solid banking, how you have fallen. Your stock price dipped into the single digits this week, did you hear? At this rate Wells Fargo is going to buy you up and, as a final insult, use Citigroup Center as the world’s tallest beef feedlot.
Now, this (from NYT):
“Citi doesn’t have a credible management team, they don’t have a credible board,” said Christopher Whalen, managing partner at Institutional Risk Analytics. “If you look at their loss rate, it is almost inevitable that Citi is going to be asking the government for more money next year.”Ha ha, you just got served. But things must be going well over at Citi, else why would Bandit and his roving gang of scamps have used their own money to buy up 1.3 million shares of C this week? Why, things are going so well there that unnamed executives are saying that a workforce reduction of up to 25% is possible by the end of next year, with some cuts imminent by next week. It takes a sound company to withstand that level of layoffs, let me tell you.
Soon Citigroup will consist of no one but the Bandit sitting alone in his ivory tower, forever buzzing his empty secretary’s desk to bring him more tea, wondering where it all went wrong, and looking very much like Michael Corleone at the end of the second Godfather. I can’t wait.
....ich dachte Herr Rubin sei so ein toller Hirsch (gewesen :confused:rolleyes) hat aber nicht viel vollbracht als Chairman :o
Problem - Reaction - Solution
-> Posted by sckpak @ 10:07 am on November 14, 2008
Redistribution of Wealth
#26850 gesendet am 14.11.2008 um 14:18
Als einen Randbereich der klassischen Charttechnik wollen wir heute das Glaskugellesen betrachten. In dieser sieht man gerade einen Anstieg im DAX auf 4900+ ...
Ahh!!! Man muss sie drehen um das richtige Ergebnis zu sehen...drehen geht nicht, da dreht man durch...
Grading Paulson :bad
Reaction to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's CNBC interview. (knappe 5 Min.)
Arthur Cashin, of UBS Financial Services, and Michael Cuggino, of the Permanent Portfolio Fund, share their outlooks on the market (4 Min.)
...na ja bei dieser Börse :rolleyes:o
echt beschi**ene Vorstellung :mad
Der Hui kommt mir vor wie der Dow auf Speed.
@High steaks....schlechter Stoff :gomad
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